有人非要说奥巴马时代好好好 那我们来看主流媒体的报道 看看到底是谁的智商和动机有问题。 一个搭着犯罪率一路下降的顺风车的烂总统 竟然有本事将犯罪率搞回升 竟然还有人追捧 我也是醉了 连左媒都没好意思这么吹 奥巴马大言不惭说数据下降都是他的功劳 欺负民众看不懂大数据 欺负民众不懂经济对犯罪率的滞后效应 欺负民众不会玩百分比与绝对值的游戏 这是一个典型的example of a seemingly simple figure lifted from a complex issue 据华盛顿邮报报道 奥巴马玩的数字游戏 就是个骗人把戏 这可是左媒的报道 不是我编造的谣言 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/01/22/what-obama-didnt-say-about-crime-and-incarceration/ The national violent crime rate was 396 offenses per 100,000 people in 1971, and steadily increased until it peaked in 1991, at 758 offenses per 100,000. Then it began decreasing again, even though the overall population continued to grow. In 2013, the total number of prisoners in state and federal facilities increased over the 2012 total for the first increase since 2009. But because of the general population increase, the rate still decreased. But what he didn’t say in reference to this topic is just as important. For example, the actual 2013 prison population increased for the first time since 2009, despite the rate decrease. While both rates decreased nationally, 40 percent of states did not experience the simultaneous change in 2008-2013. The president receives One Pinocchio for missing context. 要点1、 91年开始 在人口不断增长的同时 犯罪率不断下降 奥巴马上了一辆正在下坡路上的车 犯罪率达最低点 然而在第二任期 他成功把车开上了上坡路 犯罪人口不断回升 在他四年的努力下 将下降的趋势改为回升 要点2、 这就是个数字游戏 人口分母变大 罪犯分子扩大赶不上分母变大的速度 所以看起来是百分比下降 哈 奥巴马用百分比说事儿呢 敢说绝对犯罪数字的变化吗 打个比方 奥巴马跳上了一辆正在下坡的车 却偏要说车是因为他的努力在往下跑 然后他能把一辆正在下滑的车给弄上了坡 总结 奥巴马大言不惭说数据下降都是他的功劳 欺负民众看不懂大数据 欺负民众不懂得政治经济与犯罪率的滞后效应 好恶心 再来看官方从1996年开始的数据 （感谢Mintcafe提供） https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-1 96年开始持续下降的犯罪人数趋势 直到2013扭转 到现在 violent 和murder和rape和Aggravated assault 同步增加 罪犯和经济发展 都有延后效应 奥巴马花费四年 在美国的犯罪在1991年后已经不断下降的大趋势下 终于在第二任期发威 将犯罪重新推高 并稳步增长 呵呵 ---------//-------- 再来一篇纽约时报的报道 2015年homicide增加11% U.S. Murders Surged in 2015, F.B.I. Finds The FBI reported Monday that violent crime rose nationwide, fueled by an 11 percent increase in homicides, particularly in some of the largest cities. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/27/us/murder-crime-fbi.amp.html?client=safari ------//----- 左媒的报道 In 2013, the total number of prisoners in state and federal facilities increased over the 2012 total for the first increase since 2009. But because of the general population increase, the rate still decreased. But what he didn’t say in reference to this topic is just as important. For example, the actual 2013 prison population increased for the first time since 2009, despite the rate decrease. While both rates decreased nationally, 40 percent of states did not experience the simultaneous change in 2008-2013. The president receives One Pinocchio for missing context. -----//---- 这里谈的是奥巴马时代的murder The economy is slow. America is reeling abroad. Murder is rampant at home. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-murder-spike-in-americas-cities-is-obamas-legacy-2015-9
Today, the FBI released its annual compilation of crimes reported to its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by law enforcement agencies from around the nation. Crime in the United States, 2015 reveals a 3.9 percent increase in the estimated number of violent crimes and a 2.6 percent decrease in the estimated number of property crimes last year when compared to 2014 data.
According to the report, there were an estimated 1,197,704 violent crimes committed around the nation. While that was an increase from 2014 figures, the 2015 violent crime total was 0.7 percent lower than the 2011 level and 16.5 percent below the 2006 level.
Today, the FBI released its annual compilation of crimes reported to its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by law enforcement agencies from around the nation. Crime in the United States, 2015 reveals a 3.9 percent increase in the estimated number of violent crimes and a 2.6 percent decrease in the estimated number of property crimes last year when compared to 2014 data.
According to the report, there were an estimated 1,197,704 violent crimes committed around the nation. While that was an increase from 2014 figures, the 2015 violent crime total was 0.7 percent lower than the 2011 level and 16.5 percent below the 2006 level.
Among some of the other statistics contained in Crime in the United States, 2015:
The estimated number of murders in the nation was 15,696. During the year, there were an estimated 90,185 rapes. (This figure currently reflects UCR’s legacy definition. Learn more about the revised rape definition.) There were an estimated 327,374 robberies nationwide, which accounted for an estimated $390 million in losses (average dollar value of stolen property per reported robbery was $1,190). Firearms were used in 71.5 percent of the nation’s murders, 40.8 percent of robberies, and 24.2 percent of aggravated assaults. Property crimes resulted in losses estimated at $14.3 billion. The total value of reported stolen property (i.e., currency, jewelry, motor vehicles, electronics, firearms) was $12,420,364,454.
嘻嘻 当然不是 你好好看最后一篇文章的分析和图片 犯罪率的整体百分比降低趋势 早在奥巴马之前就发生 steadily increased until it peaked in 1991, at 758 offenses per 100,000. Then it began decreasing again 91年开始稳步下降 大趋势在此 跟奥巴马有关系吗 不断降低的大趋势下 奥巴花费四年 终于在第二任期成功将数字spike并稳步上升 经济和犯罪都有延后效应 你不会是想说 奥巴马一take over整个国家 第二天 罪犯马上看他面子就减少了吧？ 啊哈哈 你好幼稚好可爱呀 这就是一个example of a seemingly simple figure lifted from a complex issue 学过统计学的人一眼看穿背后的游戏
嘴这么脏 要点脸吧！ 你这张嘴就是你的写照 没学过统计学的脏嘴女人 你可以拿你这张嘴去亲吻你的小孩跟你的老公跟你的爹妈了 The national violent crime rate was 396 offenses per 100,000 people in 1971, and steadily increased until it peaked in 1991, at 758 offenses per 100,000. Then it began decreasing again, even though the overall population continued to grow. 明明1991年开始就一直下降趋势 奥巴马成功于第二任期下降趋势扭转为上升 你满嘴都是💩 没想到满脑子也都是💩 建议你去洗手间吃饭 那里最适合你哦
According to the report, there were an estimated 1,197,704 violent crimes committed around the nation. While that was an increase from 2014 figures, the 2015 violent crime total was 0.7 percent lower than the 2011 level and 16.5 percent below the 2006 level.
我可没说你骂人 我说的是骂人的那个 你非要跳出来说我指认你骂人 好奇怪 你非要看FBI数据 行 纽约时报的报道 2015年homicide增加11% 链接在一楼 U.S. Murders Surged in 2015, F.B.I. Finds The FBI reported Monday that violent crime rose nationwide, fueled by an 11 percent increase in homicides, particularly in some of the largest cities. 麻烦你看一楼华盛顿邮报全文 一个搭着犯罪率一路下降的顺风车的烂总统 竟然有本事将犯罪率搞回升 竟然还有人追捧 我也是醉了 连左媒都没好意思这么吹
你喜欢看单一数据比较 奥巴马就喜欢你这种不懂宏观数据分析的听众 胡搅蛮缠的是你 不懂数据分析 long term trend 不懂分子分母的互动造成的变化
Today, the FBI released its annual compilation of crimes reported to its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by law enforcement agencies from around the nation. Crime in the United States, 2015 reveals a 3.9 percent increase in the estimated number of violent crimes and a 2.6 percent decrease in the estimated number of property crimes last year when compared to 2014 data.
奥巴马大言不惭说数据下降都是他的功劳 欺负民众看不懂大数据 欺负民众不懂经济对犯罪率的滞后效应 欺负民众不会玩百分比与绝对值的游戏 这是一个典型的example of a seemingly simple figure lifted from a complex issue 据华盛顿邮报报道 奥巴马玩的数字游戏 就是个骗人把戏 这可是左媒的报道 不是我编造的谣言 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/01/22/what-obama-didnt-say-about-crime-and-incarceration/ The national violent crime rate was 396 offenses per 100,000 people in 1971, and steadily increased until it peaked in 1991, at 758 offenses per 100,000. Then it began decreasing again, even though the overall population continued to grow. In 2013, the total number of prisoners in state and federal facilities increased over the 2012 total for the first increase since 2009. But because of the general population increase, the rate still decreased. But what he didn’t say in reference to this topic is just as important. For example, the actual 2013 prison population increased for the first time since 2009, despite the rate decrease. While both rates decreased nationally, 40 percent of states did not experience the simultaneous change in 2008-2013. The president receives One Pinocchio for missing context. 要点1、 91年开始 在人口不断增长的同时 犯罪率不断下降 奥巴马上了一辆正在下坡路上的车 犯罪率达最低点 然而在第二任期 他成功把车开上了上坡路 犯罪人口不断回升 在他四年的努力下 将下降的趋势改为回升 要点2、 这就是个数字游戏 人口分母变大 罪犯分子扩大赶不上分母变大的速度 所以看起来是百分比下降 哈 奥巴马用百分比说事儿呢 敢说绝对犯罪数字的变化吗 打个比方 奥巴马跳上了一辆正在下坡的车 却偏要说车是因为他的努力在往下跑 然后他能把一辆正在下滑的车给弄上了坡 总结 奥巴马大言不惭说数据下降都是他的功劳 欺负民众看不懂大数据 欺负民众不懂得政治经济与犯罪率的滞后效应 好恶心 再来看官方从1996年开始的数据 （感谢Mintcafe提供） https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-1 96年开始持续下降的犯罪人数趋势 直到2013扭转 到现在 violent 和murder和rape和Aggravated assault 同步增加 罪犯和经济发展 都有延后效应 奥巴马花费四年 在美国的犯罪在1991年后已经不断下降的大趋势下 终于在第二任期发威 将犯罪重新推高 并稳步增长 呵呵 ---------//-------- 再来一篇纽约时报的报道 2015年homicide增加11% U.S. Murders Surged in 2015, F.B.I. Finds The FBI reported Monday that violent crime rose nationwide, fueled by an 11 percent increase in homicides, particularly in some of the largest cities. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/27/us/murder-crime-fbi.amp.html?client=safari ------//----- 左媒的报道 In 2013, the total number of prisoners in state and federal facilities increased over the 2012 total for the first increase since 2009. But because of the general population increase, the rate still decreased. But what he didn’t say in reference to this topic is just as important. For example, the actual 2013 prison population increased for the first time since 2009, despite the rate decrease. While both rates decreased nationally, 40 percent of states did not experience the simultaneous change in 2008-2013. The president receives One Pinocchio for missing context. -----//---- 这里谈的是奥巴马时代的murder The economy is slow. America is reeling abroad. Murder is rampant at home. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-murder-spike-in-americas-cities-is-obamas-legacy-2015-9
所以苹果和橘子有啥好比的。我们再来看看ottobre的第一张图中的murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate逐年的变化吧。从Obama上任的2009年到2014年一直没有上升，只有2015年例外。你这个自诩精通数据分析的，看到5年下降或不变的data就忽略不计了，拿一年增长的数据大做文章。还说什么“奥巴马第二任期开始上升”，你真会糊弄人啊。
一个搭着犯罪率一路下降的顺风车的烂总统 竟然有本事将犯罪率搞回升 竟然还有人追捧 我也是醉了 连左媒都没好意思这么吹
奥巴马大言不惭说数据下降都是他的功劳 欺负民众看不懂大数据 欺负民众不懂经济对犯罪率的滞后效应 欺负民众不会玩百分比与绝对值的游戏
这是一个典型的example of a seemingly simple figure lifted from a complex issue
据华盛顿邮报报道 奥巴马玩的数字游戏 就是个骗人把戏 这可是左媒的报道 不是我编造的谣言
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/01/22/what-obama-didnt-say-about-crime-and-incarceration/
The national violent crime rate was 396 offenses per 100,000 people in 1971, and steadily increased until it peaked in 1991, at 758 offenses per 100,000. Then it began decreasing again, even though the overall population continued to grow.
In 2013, the total number of prisoners in state and federal facilities increased over the 2012 total for the first increase since 2009. But because of the general population increase, the rate still decreased.
But what he didn’t say in reference to this topic is just as important. For example, the actual 2013 prison population increased for the first time since 2009, despite the rate decrease. While both rates decreased nationally, 40 percent of states did not experience the simultaneous change in 2008-2013. The president receives One Pinocchio for missing context.
要点1、
91年开始 在人口不断增长的同时 犯罪率不断下降 奥巴马上了一辆正在下坡路上的车 犯罪率达最低点 然而在第二任期 他成功把车开上了上坡路 犯罪人口不断回升 在他四年的努力下 将下降的趋势改为回升
要点2、
这就是个数字游戏 人口分母变大 罪犯分子扩大赶不上分母变大的速度 所以看起来是百分比下降 哈 奥巴马用百分比说事儿呢 敢说绝对犯罪数字的变化吗
打个比方
奥巴马跳上了一辆正在下坡的车 却偏要说车是因为他的努力在往下跑
然后他能把一辆正在下滑的车给弄上了坡
总结
奥巴马大言不惭说数据下降都是他的功劳 欺负民众看不懂大数据 欺负民众不懂得政治经济与犯罪率的滞后效应
好恶心
再来看官方从1996年开始的数据 （感谢Mintcafe提供）
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-1
96年开始持续下降的犯罪人数趋势 直到2013扭转 到现在 violent 和murder和rape和Aggravated assault 同步增加
罪犯和经济发展 都有延后效应 奥巴马花费四年 在美国的犯罪在1991年后已经不断下降的大趋势下 终于在第二任期发威 将犯罪重新推高 并稳步增长 呵呵
---------//--------
再来一篇纽约时报的报道 2015年homicide增加11%
U.S. Murders Surged in 2015, F.B.I. Finds
The FBI reported Monday that violent crime rose nationwide, fueled by an 11 percent increase in homicides, particularly in some of the largest cities.
https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/27/us/murder-crime-fbi.amp.html?client=safari
------//-----
左媒的报道
In 2013, the total number of prisoners in state and federal facilities increased over the 2012 total for the first increase since 2009. But because of the general population increase, the rate still decreased.
But what he didn’t say in reference to this topic is just as important. For example, the actual 2013 prison population increased for the first time since 2009, despite the rate decrease. While both rates decreased nationally, 40 percent of states did not experience the simultaneous change in 2008-2013. The president receives One Pinocchio for missing context.
-----//----
这里谈的是奥巴马时代的murder
The economy is slow. America is reeling abroad. Murder is rampant at home.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-murder-spike-in-americas-cities-is-obamas-legacy-2015-9
According to the report, there were an estimated 1,197,704 violent crimes committed around the nation. While that was an increase from 2014 figures, the 2015 violent crime total was 0.7 percent lower than the 2011 level and 16.5 percent below the 2006 level.
Today, the FBI released its annual compilation of crimes reported to its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by law enforcement agencies from around the nation. Crime in the United States, 2015 reveals a 3.9 percent increase in the estimated number of violent crimes and a 2.6 percent decrease in the estimated number of property crimes last year when compared to 2014 data.
According to the report, there were an estimated 1,197,704 violent crimes committed around the nation. While that was an increase from 2014 figures, the 2015 violent crime total was 0.7 percent lower than the 2011 level and 16.5 percent below the 2006 level.
Among some of the other statistics contained in Crime in the United States, 2015:
The estimated number of murders in the nation was 15,696.
During the year, there were an estimated 90,185 rapes. (This figure currently reflects UCR’s legacy definition. Learn more about the revised rape definition.)
There were an estimated 327,374 robberies nationwide, which accounted for an estimated $390 million in losses (average dollar value of stolen property per reported robbery was $1,190).
Firearms were used in 71.5 percent of the nation’s murders, 40.8 percent of robberies, and 24.2 percent of aggravated assaults.
Property crimes resulted in losses estimated at $14.3 billion. The total value of reported stolen property (i.e., currency, jewelry, motor vehicles, electronics, firearms) was $12,420,364,454.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/latest-crime-statistics-released
玩数字游戏 吹嘘犯罪降低
玩统计游戏 吹嘘就业率增加
吃福利人口几乎翻倍
更别提搞笑的医保
竟然还还有人为这个祸国殃民的大骗子洗地
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2015/crime-in-the-u.s.-2015/tables/table-1
不断降低的大趋势下 奥巴花费四年 终于在第二任期成功将数字spike并稳步上升
经济和犯罪都有延后效应 你不会是想说 奥巴马一take over整个国家 第二天 罪犯马上看他面子就减少了吧？
啊哈哈 你好幼稚好可爱呀 这就是一个example of a seemingly simple figure lifted from a complex issue 学过统计学的人一眼看穿背后的游戏
Obama时期的2015年暴力犯罪率和小布什时期的2006年比下降了16.5%怎么不提了？
According to the report, there were an estimated 1,197,704 violent crimes committed around the nation. While that was an increase from 2014 figures, the 2015 violent crime total was 0.7 percent lower than the 2011 level and 16.5 percent below the 2006 level.
首先FBI的报告中说2015年的暴力犯罪率比2014年增加了3.9%而不是你说的11%，其次你为什么无视Obama从2009年上任到2014年的暴力犯罪率下降的数据，2015年一次上升就变成你们的宏观数据了？
Today, the FBI released its annual compilation of crimes reported to its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program by law enforcement agencies from around the nation. Crime in the United States, 2015 reveals a 3.9 percent increase in the estimated number of violent crimes and a 2.6 percent decrease in the estimated number of property crimes last year when compared to 2014 data.
这有什么能吵得阿？
lz你把这图贴上不就完了么
3%是总合犯罪案件的增加，故意杀人罪增加了10%，这个还是很严重的。抢劫的变少拉，估计高福利的作用
恩 他们都懂的
但是看不惯trump的还是投希拉里
姐姐
lz的帖子里面没写错---2015年homicide增加11%，我拖蓝的那一列就是阿，不过是增加10%
你回复的时候说成了暴利犯罪了。较这个真儿有意思么？
过上几十年回头一看O8时期犯罪率是个坡底，小布什跳出来说，你的坡底是搭我的顺风车；川普跳出来说，我往上爬是因为从你这儿滞后来的。
明白了，O8做对了的那是小布什基础打得好，川普搞糟了是O8把基础铺的差。
你不是爱谈滞后么，小布什的滞后效应啊，硬是在卸任六年后开恶花结恶果了。
如果川普上台犯罪率下去了，那是O8期间的滞后效应，如果犯罪率上去了，靠，大势往下时硬是接过小布什的棒子了。
你大概是文科生吧？理科实验最忌讳的就是有了观点再从曲线上找支持。
你所谓犯罪率滞后来源于O8的第一任而不是布什的第二任的论点，是你自己想出来的么还是哪儿证明了的？为什么是四年而不是两年或者八年？
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/currentevent/916635.html
可见你也明白任意定义一个潜伏期长短的荒谬了。
更何况，你这句“91年开始犯罪率下降 到奥巴马第二任期开始上升 跨度接近20年”本身就又在误导，没见过图的人还以为是在直线下降呢。
所以苹果和橘子有啥好比的。我们再来看看ottobre的第一张图中的murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate逐年的变化吧。从Obama上任的2009年到2014年一直没有上升，只有2015年例外。你这个自诩精通数据分析的，看到5年下降或不变的data就忽略不计了，拿一年增长的数据大做文章。还说什么“奥巴马第二任期开始上升”，你真会糊弄人啊。
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/10/26/gallup-support-ban-assault-weapons-hits-time-low/