Stocks sell off as Dow, S&P post worst day since June 24; Fed fears loom
U.S. equities closed sharply lower on Friday as concerns the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates this month loomed following comments made by key Fed officials. "The Fed is clearly on a choreographed path; it wants to raise rates this year," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. "What the market is trying to re-calibrate is whether that means September or December." "You've also had some lingering disappointment from Mario Draghi disappointing," he said. The Dow Jones industrial average closed nearly 400 points lower, with3M and Boeing contributing the most losses. The index also posted its biggest single day fall since June 24 and its worst week since January. "The commentary from a voting member that the Fed may be forced to raise rates is important," said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital. "I think the market needs to understand that there may be a rate hike coming. Whether it's September or December, it doesn't matter big picture."
"I think this is a good opportunity to take a hard look at your portfolio and maybe preposition as the market trends a bit lower," said Rob Bartenstein, CEO of Kestra Private Wealth Services. "This part of the year historically has 20-to-25 percent more volatility than any other time of the year." He added, however, he thinks stocks should finish the year on a high note.
Getty Images A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The S&P 500 fell 2.45 percent, with telecommunications and utilities shedding more than 3 percent. The index also posted its first 1 percent move since July 8, as well as its biggest one-day fall since June 24.
"I think this might be the beginning of a correction," said Chuck Self, CIO of iSectors. "When you look at the sectors, it's a decently broad decline." He added that Monday "could be a pretty ugly day as well" since stocks were on track to end the week on a negative note. "Intraday support has been violated, which increases risk of downside follow-through today. We believe September will be characterized by a healthy pullback, true to its seasonal influences," Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG, said in a note to clients. The Nasdaq composite dropped about 135 points, or 2.54 percent, as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell 3.26 percent and Apple slid 2.26 percent. "I think the key thing here is Eric Rosengren's speech," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds. "I think they are trying to box themselves into a corner where they have to raise rates in September in order to maintain credibility." "If the market does sell off in anticipation of a rate hike, I think it will recover pretty quickly," Kelly added, noting a rate hike would ultimately be seen as a vote of confidence for the economy. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in a speech low interest rates are increasing the chance of overheating the U.S. economy. Gradually tightening monetary policy is appropriate to maintaining full employment, he added. "Voting member Eric Rosengren, historically a dove, repeated his desire (was hawkish two weeks ago) for a rate hike notwithstanding the soft data over the past week," Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note to clients. "Bottom line, this is important because here we have is a voting member, a dove and someone that is calling for a rate hike even after the recent string of weak economic data." U.S. stock futures extended losses following Rosengren's speech, with Dow futures falling more than 100 points. S&P and Nasdaq futures fell 11 points and 28 points, respectively. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo — also a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee — told CNBC he wanted to see more evidence of inflation before raising rates. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded more than 30 percent higher, near 16.4. "We wished for volatility and the VIX rose 30 percent," TD Ameritrade's Kinahan said.
Fort Pitt Capital's Forrest also said the nuclear bomb test in North Korea held overnight may be weighing on market sentiment, since "North Korea has been a wildcard and continues to be a wildcard."
Investors also kept an eye on oil prices Friday. U.S. crude settled 3.65 percent lower at $45.88 a barrel, a day after surging more than 4.5 percent following a 14.5 million barrel drawdown reported by the Energy Information Administration. Still, WTI posted a weekly gain of more than 3 percent, according to FactSet. Baker Hughes said U.S. oil rigs rose by 7. Wholesale trade data for July showed inventories remained unchanged, while sales fell 0.4 percent. U.S. Treasurys fell broadly on Friday, with the two-year note yield near 0.79 percent and the benchmark 10-year note yield around 1.67 percent. The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies, with the euro near $1.1218 and the yen around 102.7. Overseas, European equities slid, with the Stoxx 600 falling 1.09 percent. In Asia, stocks closed mostly lower after North Korea held a nuclear test.
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全球股市和经济走势背离 后果或堪比“雷曼破产”
2016年09月09日 21:50
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股市是实体经济晴雨表，其走势在很大程度上可以折射出实体经济的发展变化。但是现在两者的走势却出现了严重背离，而且愈行愈远，整个市场非常扭曲。
全球资产相关性高企
几十年来，根据市场规律股价和债券价格走势一直呈负相关。但最近全球股票和债券的负相关走势已经出现崩溃征兆，呈现出同涨同跌的走势。据《华尔街日报》报道，过去30个交易日里，仅有11个交易日股票和债券价格呈负相关，其频率创下07年以来之最。
通常情况下，这种相关性不会吸引太多公众注意。投资者更关心资产价格的绝对走势（比如股市上涨了吗？），而不是相关性。 根据瑞士信贷数据（Credit Suisse Data），正常情况下主要资产类别之间的相关性水平在50%左右，与历史常规水平基本一致，这意味着市场波动各自独立，偶尔保持一致。08年雷曼倒闭后一年内市场相关性水平跃升至65%。这并不奇怪，由于投资者恐慌并抛售，市场崩溃往往伴随着很高的相关性。
有趣的是2010年以来，市场危机感已逐渐消退，许多资产价格大幅飙升。但相关性不但并未像以往一样下降，而是出现了V型反弹，达到历史高位67%。 全球央行QE规模逼近每月2000亿美元，长期低利率甚至负利率。央行用这些非常规措施制造出的流动性推高了市场价格，但是这些流动性未能进入实体经济。 美银美林（America Merrill Lynch）警告称，相关性持续升高可能会给风险平价配置策略基金带来毁灭性打击，继而造成金融系统风险。
在市场判断完全被央行政策垄断的时候，什么可能引发股票和债券同跌的灾难？Willis Towers Watson资产管理公司的Alasdair Macdonald称，央行加息再加上经济滞涨，或市场和投资者对央行完全失去信心。
现金是最好的投资
二十年前，对冲基金似乎无所不能。只要出现市场冲击，或经济进入周期性转折，乔治•索罗斯（George Soros）、朱利安•罗伯逊（Julian Robertson）等一批金融大鳄就会迅速杀入，且往往能大赚一笔。
然而，好景不再，该行业的表现已连续多年不佳，其中许多对冲基金甚至未能击败美国股票指数。
近期，挪威对冲基金公司行业资产管理（Sector Asset ManaGEment）创始人Peter Andersland提醒投资者，全球正遭受着史无前例的金融风险，当前市场最大的风险不是地缘政治或者川普当上美国总统，而是来自于资本市场本身。股债两市现在主要朝着同一个方向发展，导致投资者曝露于无限的风险之中无处躲藏。
Peter Andersland表示，每个人都想通过多元化策略来管理风险，投一点债券，再投一点股票，但是如果这两者之间的相关性增加，基于多元化的风险投资管理已经失去了效果。根据其个人的分析，全球股票市场可能有5-10%的上涨，但是全球市场精选指数（MSCI ACWI）将下跌40-60%。
Andersland管理着16亿美元的资产，其中现金持有率高达50%，因为目前持有现金似乎成为了对冲债券股票市场风险的最佳方式。
是一种平静得可怕的无聊走势，
9月份了，该波动一下了。
感觉应该等等吧，多等等。
U.S. equities closed sharply lower on Friday as concerns the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates this month loomed following comments made by key Fed officials.
"The Fed is clearly on a choreographed path; it wants to raise rates this year," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. "What the market is trying to re-calibrate is whether that means September or December." "You've also had some lingering disappointment from Mario Draghi disappointing," he said.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed nearly 400 points lower, with3M and Boeing contributing the most losses. The index also posted its biggest single day fall since June 24 and its worst week since January.
"The commentary from a voting member that the Fed may be forced to raise rates is important," said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital. "I think the market needs to understand that there may be a rate hike coming. Whether it's September or December, it doesn't matter big picture."
"I think this is a good opportunity to take a hard look at your portfolio and maybe preposition as the market trends a bit lower," said Rob Bartenstein, CEO of Kestra Private Wealth Services. "This part of the year historically has 20-to-25 percent more volatility than any other time of the year." He added, however, he thinks stocks should finish the year on a high note.
A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The S&P 500 fell 2.45 percent, with telecommunications and utilities shedding more than 3 percent. The index also posted its first 1 percent move since July 8, as well as its biggest one-day fall since June 24.
"I think this might be the beginning of a correction," said Chuck Self, CIO of iSectors. "When you look at the sectors, it's a decently broad decline." He added that Monday "could be a pretty ugly day as well" since stocks were on track to end the week on a negative note.
"Intraday support has been violated, which increases risk of downside follow-through today. We believe September will be characterized by a healthy pullback, true to its seasonal influences," Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG, said in a note to clients.
The Nasdaq composite dropped about 135 points, or 2.54 percent, as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell 3.26 percent and Apple slid 2.26 percent.
"I think the key thing here is Eric Rosengren's speech," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds. "I think they are trying to box themselves into a corner where they have to raise rates in September in order to maintain credibility."
"If the market does sell off in anticipation of a rate hike, I think it will recover pretty quickly," Kelly added, noting a rate hike would ultimately be seen as a vote of confidence for the economy.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in a speech low interest rates are increasing the chance of overheating the U.S. economy. Gradually tightening monetary policy is appropriate to maintaining full employment, he added.
"Voting member Eric Rosengren, historically a dove, repeated his desire (was hawkish two weeks ago) for a rate hike notwithstanding the soft data over the past week," Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, said in a note to clients. "Bottom line, this is important because here we have is a voting member, a dove and someone that is calling for a rate hike even after the recent string of weak economic data."
U.S. stock futures extended losses following Rosengren's speech, with Dow futures falling more than 100 points. S&P and Nasdaq futures fell 11 points and 28 points, respectively.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo — also a voting member of the Fed's policymaking committee — told CNBC he wanted to see more evidence of inflation before raising rates.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded more than 30 percent higher, near 16.4. "We wished for volatility and the VIX rose 30 percent," TD Ameritrade's Kinahan said.
Fort Pitt Capital's Forrest also said the nuclear bomb test in North Korea held overnight may be weighing on market sentiment, since "North Korea has been a wildcard and continues to be a wildcard."
Investors also kept an eye on oil prices Friday. U.S. crude settled 3.65 percent lower at $45.88 a barrel, a day after surging more than 4.5 percent following a 14.5 million barrel drawdown reported by the Energy Information Administration.
Still, WTI posted a weekly gain of more than 3 percent, according to FactSet. Baker Hughes said U.S. oil rigs rose by 7.
Wholesale trade data for July showed inventories remained unchanged, while sales fell 0.4 percent.
U.S. Treasurys fell broadly on Friday, with the two-year note yield near 0.79 percent and the benchmark 10-year note yield around 1.67 percent. The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies, with the euro near $1.1218 and the yen around 102.7.
Overseas, European equities slid, with the Stoxx 600 falling 1.09 percent. In Asia, stocks closed mostly lower after North Korea held a nuclear test.
可能说的是crude oil涨了4％＋， 今天又跌回去了