For anyone seeking to explain one of the most unpredictable political seasons in modern history, with the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, a prime suspect is public dismay in institutions guiding the economy and government. The Fed in particular is a case study in how the conventional wisdom of the late 1990s on a wide range of economic issues, including trade, technology and central banking, has since slowly unraveled.
Once admired globally for their command of the economic system, central bankers now are blamed by the left and right for bailouts during the financial crisis and for failing to foresee and manage forces suffocating the global economy in its aftermath.
“The lessons, the parallels, are clear. What we did in the U.K. on the 23rd of June, was to strike the first really big blow against the professional political class working hand in glove with the giant multinationals and the big Wall Street banks,” Farage told the FOX Business Network’s Stuart Varney.
Farage then reacted to reports that polls on the morning of the Brexit vote showed the ‘leave’ side was substantially behind despite ultimately ending the day with a victory.
“The morning of the vote was quite remarkable, there was an opinion poll issued by what was a reputable polling company showing the ‘remain’ side ten points in the lead. And I genuinely think that what went on at the end of that campaign was a deliberate media and establishment attempt to say to voters, ‘look, Brexit isn’t going to win so why bother to go out to vote for it.’”
Farage explained that this was a key part of his message to Trump supporters.
“And what I was saying to Trump supporters last night is whatever gets said in the next 73 days in this campaign, even if they tell you that the Donald can’t win, don’t believe them, because what we saw was the deliberate attempt to fiddle the figures. Luckily we ignored it and we beat them.”
CNN AUDIENCE DROPS UNDER 750K. People are turning off the lies in increasing numbers for the third straight week. Fox News beats CNN and MSNBC combined in Primetime
The Great Unraveling Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington
Once-revered central bank failed to foresee the crisis and has struggled in its aftermath, fostering the rise of populism and distrust of institutions By Jon Hilsenrath
In the past decade Federal Reserve officials have been flummoxed by a housing bubble that cratered the financial system, a long stretch of slow growth they failed to foresee and inflation persistently undershooting their goal. In response they engineered unpopular financial rescues, launched start-and-stop bond buying and delayed planned interest-rate boosts.
“There are a lot of things that we thought we knew that haven’t turned out quite as we expected,” said Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. “The economy and financial markets are not as stable as we previously assumed.”
In the 1990s, a period known in economics as the “Great Moderation,” it seemed the Fed could do no wrong. Policy makers and voters saw it as a machine, with buttons officials could push to heat or cool the economy as needed. Now, after more than a decade of economic disappointment, the central bank confronts hardened public skepticism and growing self-doubt about its own understanding of how the U.S. economy works.
For anyone seeking to explain one of the most unpredictable political seasons in modern history, with the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, a prime suspect is public dismay in institutions guiding the economy and government. The Fed in particular is a case study in how the conventional wisdom of the late 1990s on a wide range of economic issues, including trade, technology and central banking, has since slowly unraveled.
Once admired globally for their command of the economic system, central bankers now are blamed by the left and right for bailouts during the financial crisis and for failing to foresee and manage forces suffocating the global economy in its aftermath.
Populist protest movements called “Fed Up,” “End the Fed” and “Occupy Wall Street” lashed out at the bank’s policies, and in the case of End the Fed, its very existence. Lawmakers of both parties want to subject it to more scrutiny or curb its powers.
David Einhorn, founder of the hedge fund Greenlight Capital, cites the fable of the ant and the grasshopper, in which a famished grasshopper begs a thrifty ant for help in wintertime after failing to stockpile food during warmer weather.
“We had the grasshoppers party from 2002 to 2007 and winter came and the Fed bailed them out,” said Mr. Einhorn, referring to financial firms and individuals who lived above their means. “Now the ants are pissed.”
The Fed’s struggles will be on display from Friday to Sunday when it gathers for an annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo. On issues of growth, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and how to fight a recession, basic assumptions inside the central bank’s complex computer models have been upended.
“I certainly myself couldn’t have imagined six, seven years ago that we would be employing the policies we are now,” Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said to a packed ballroom in New York earlier this year. She lamented the government has leaned so heavily on the Fed to stimulate the economy while tax and spending policies were stymied by disagreements between Congress and the White House.
Many Fed officials believe—and private economists agree—their responses to the crisis helped avert a second Depression, outweighing any unfairness in the bailout process. Fed leaders believe low rates helped, too. “Inflation would be lower and unemployment higher now by noticeable amounts had we not employed those policies,” Ms. Yellen said in March.
Regardless, confidence in the central bank’s leadership has dropped. An April Gallup poll found 38% of Americans had a great deal or fair amount of confidence in Ms. Yellen, while 35% had little or none. In the early 2000s, confidence in Chairman Alan Greenspan often exceeded 70%.
The Fed’s own uncertainty about the economy’s underpinnings is more than a decade in the making and traces back to three key developments that have thrown officials for a loop.
First, officials missed signs that a more complex financial system had become vulnerable to financial bubbles, and bubbles had become a growing threat in a low-interest-rate world.
Secondly, they were blinded to a long-running slowdown in the growth of worker productivity, or output per hour of labor, which has limited how fast the economy could grow since 2004.
Thirdly, inflation hasn’t responded to the ups and downs of the job market in the way the Fed expected.
The shifting financial, productivity and inflation scenarios made it hard to gauge where interest rates belonged even before the financial crisis and are central to Ms. Yellen’s dilemmas today.
She is trying to raise short-term rates, but the economy so far has proved too feeble to absorb more than one small increase from near zero last December. If she waits too long before moving again, she could encourage bubbles. If she raises rates too much, she could cut off a fragile expansion and, in a replay of Japan’s experience, never drive inflation to the Fed’s target of 2%.
“Unfortunately, all economic projections are certain to turn out to be inaccurate in some respects, and possibly significantly so,” Ms. Yellen warned in a June speech. “The uncertainties are sizable.”
One window into the Fed’s run of misjudgments is a computer model it uses to calibrate how the economy is likely to respond to changes in interest rates and outside shocks. It is called FRB/US, known as “Ferbus.”
Simulations the Fed did with FRB/US during debates about a possible housing bubble in 2005 and again in 2007 failed to show how a fall in home prices would ripple through the financial sector, freezing credit that was the lifeblood of the economy.
“Assuming that the FRB/US model does a good job of capturing the macroeconomic implications of declining house prices, such an event does not pose a particularly difficult challenge for monetary policy,” John Williams, then a Fed analyst and now president of the San Francisco Fed, said during a debate on the housing boom in 2005.
The model showed the economy could weather a 20% drop in home prices with small increases in unemployment and modest cuts in interest rates.
Ferbus didn’t account for the damage that unstable financial institutions can do to an economy. Unemployment rose to 10%, the Fed cut rates to near zero and then launched programs that ballooned its securities portfolio to more than $4 trillion.
“What was missing to me was the in-depth understanding of how much risk and leverage had grown in the financial system and basically how lacking in resilience the financial system as a whole was to this kind of shock,” Mr. Williams said in a recent interview.
Fed officials say they are alert to the financial system’s risks and have cushioned it by forcing banks to hold more capital. Other entities, such as hedge funds and money-market funds, are more closely watched.
Still, some worry that even with those efforts, continuing very low rates could feed instability by driving investors too heavily into some asset class in search of higher returns.
Mr. Rosengren is worried about booming commercial real estate. “You do have to think about some of the collateral effects that can occur when interest rates are low for a long period,” he said. “Real estate is one of those sectors.”
Richard Fisher, former president of the Dallas Fed, said low interest rates are adding to discontent by forcing consumers to save more to meet their nest-egg needs. The unintended message households get from low rates, he said, is “you’re going to have to save a hell of a lot more before you consume.”
Fed models didn’t pick up on a broader economic slowdown already in train by 2004 because the people running the models also didn’t recognize productivity growth was entering an extended slowdown.
In the long run, an economy can expand only at a rate sustained by the growth of its labor force and the productivity of its workers. During the 1990s, output per hour surged, in part because companies poured money into new technologies and machinery. Many economists assumed the high-tech economy would keep fueling rapid productivity growth, but it didn’t, for reasons economists still don’t fully understand.
In the decade from 1994 to 2003, U.S. output per hour worked rose annually by an average 2.8%. Since then it has grown at 1.3%, including just 0.4% since 2011.
Fed officials, failing to see the persistence of this change, have repeatedly overestimated how fast the economy would grow. The Fed has projected faster growth than the economy delivered in 13 of the past 15 years and is on track to do so again this year.
Private economists, too, have been baffled by these developments. But Fed miscalculations have consequences, contributing to start-and-stop policies since the crisis. Officials ended bond-buying programs, thinking the economy was picking up, then restarted them when it didn’t and inflation drifted lower. Its shifts became a source of uncertainty in financial markets.
A slow-growing economy can’t bear high interest rates, and so the Fed also hasn’t delivered as many rate increases as it said it planned. In June 2015, officials estimated their benchmark short-term rate would exceed 1.5% by the end of this year. It remains below 0.5%.
“They have held out the prospect of tighter money, and that has had a discouraging effect on demand to a greater extent than would have been ideal,” said Lawrence Summers, a Harvard professor and former Treasury Secretary. “They have lost credibility by constantly predicting tightening that, out of prudence, they didn’t deliver.”
For years after the financial crisis, officials attributed slow growth to temporary headwinds, such as banks’ unwillingness to lend. Now they are coming to think the productivity slowdown is the root of the problem, and might not go away.
For James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, uncertainty about the long-run growth and rate outlook led to an about-face.
Fed officials regularly project where they think rates are heading over the longer run. The projection is a signal to the public of how monetary policy is expected to evolve over several years. Unsure about how the economy is behaving and what it means for rates, Mr. Bullard scrapped his forecast altogether.
“We are backing off the idea that we have dogmatic certainty about where the U.S. economy is headed in the medium and longer run,” he said in a paper in June.
Inflation is the third ingredient in the Fed’s self-doubt. For years it has been largely unresponsive to the ups and downs of unemployment, defying the conventional view that inflation rises when unemployment falls, and vice versa. Unemployment surged during the financial crisis, but inflation didn’t fall much, as Fed models suggested it should. And when joblessness fell, inflation didn’t move up much, either.
In offices adjacent to Ms. Yellen, two Fed governors, Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo, are lobbying against interest-rate increases because they aren’t convinced by models suggesting inflation will eventually rise.
“Inflation is not at our stated target, not near our stated target, and hasn’t been so in quite some time,” Mr. Tarullo said in a June interview.
Still looming is potentially the biggest reversal of all in the modern conventions of central banking. If another recession hits, it isn’t clear the Fed has the tools available to mend the economy, a subject Ms. Yellen could address in Jackson Hole.
Traditionally the Fed cuts interest rates in a downturn. With its benchmark short-term rate near zero, it can’t be pushed much lower. If recession hits, the Fed will likely resort to unpopular tools used after the financial crisis, including Treasury-bond purchases and more promises to keep short-term rates low far into the future.
“We should be extremely worried,” Mr. Summers said. “We are essentially on a fairly dangerous battlefield with very little ammunition.”
Former U.K. Independence Party Leader Nigel Farage weighed in on the parallels between the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union and Republican nominee Donald Trump’s anti-establishment presidential campaign. “The lessons, the parallels, are clear. What we did in the U.K. on the 23rd of June, was to strike the first really big blow against the professional political class working hand in glove with the giant multinationals and the big Wall Street banks,” Farage told the FOX Business Network’s Stuart Varney.
Farage then reacted to reports that polls on the morning of the Brexit vote showed the ‘leave’ side was substantially behind despite ultimately ending the day with a victory.
“The morning of the vote was quite remarkable, there was an opinion poll issued by what was a reputable polling company showing the ‘remain’ side ten points in the lead. And I genuinely think that what went on at the end of that campaign was a deliberate media and establishment attempt to say to voters, ‘look, Brexit isn’t going to win so why bother to go out to vote for it.’”
Farage explained that this was a key part of his message to Trump supporters. “And what I was saying to Trump supporters last night is whatever gets said in the next 73 days in this campaign, even if they tell you that the Donald can’t win, don’t believe them, because what we saw was the deliberate attempt to fiddle the figures. Luckily we ignored it and we beat them.”
Farage then weighed in on Obama’s trip to Britain in April in which he told voters to support the U.K. remaining in the European Union.
When Varney pointed out claims that the British people resented President Obama traveling to Britain in April and telling voters to support the U.K. remaining in the European Union and that Americans might view Farage’s comments on the U.S. election in a similar way, Farage responded, “I didn’t tell anyone how to vote, I wouldn’t dare do such a thing, I did suggest though that if I was an American citizen, I wouldn’t vote for Hillary because nothing is going to change if that woman wins. She represents that corporate, media club that have had their own way over the last 20 or 30 years that have led us into an endless series of wars and led us into a world where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”
https://gma.yahoo.com/trump-delaying-immigration-speech-campaign-sources-233926092--abc-news-topstories.html Donald Trump Insists He's Not Flip-Flopping on Immigration Trump insisted earlier today that he was not reversing his stance on immigration, after a weekend of various reports. "I will tell you, we are dealing with people," Trump said during an interview on "Fox & Friends." "We have to be very firm. We have to be very, very strong when people come in illegally. We have a lot of people that want to come in through the legal process and it's fair for them. We're working with a lot of people in the Hispanic community to try and come up with an answer."
Trump has suggested deporting the country's millions of undocumented immigrants and heaped criticism on them for a number of the problems facing the country.
Trump's comments come amid reports over the weekend that during a roundtable meeting with Hispanic leaders, he expressed an openness to changing his hard-line stance on undocumented immigration.
Helen Aguirre-Ferré, the director of Hispanic communications for the Republican National Committee, attended that meeting, and she told ABC News that Trump never mentioned the word "legalization" or indicated an openness to a path to legal status. But she did add that he was open to hearing the observations and comments from those gathered.
"Mr. Trump was very clear that he was working on his immigration plan and that it will be fair. He did not provide any indication of what that means in terms of policy. He never used the word "legalization," and the group was very supportive of his call for increased border security," she added.
Gun rights activist Maj Toure is seeking to educate his fellow black citizens on the importance of the Second Amendment, gun ownership, and gun safety via his new group, “Black Guns Matter” (BGM).
Donald Trump addressed Hillary Clinton’s upcoming remarks on the “alt-right” movement during his campaign rally in New Hampshire on Thursday, saying it’s “the oldest play in the Democratic playbook” and that although Democrats always return to that same well, “the well has run dry.”
Watched 'Clinton Cash' last night. Scariest movie since The Invitation! You've been warned https://t.co/pUlv3Vk1hd pic.twitter.com/9ndJwcMIXS
— MATT DRUDGE (@DRUDGE) August 25, 2016
Drudge’s tweet on Thursday is remarkably distinct, as it is one of only a few.
He used this rare post to tweet out a link to a YouTube page for Clinton Cash, the explosive documentary film that exposes the Clinton Foundation’s worldwide nexus of corruption and influence peddling.
Drudge’s tweet also featured a meticulously detailed infographic, charting, according to Radar Online, “How the career politicians made $110 million and pulled in much more to the Clinton Foundation, who paid for their over-the-top lifestyle, and how foreign entities might have benefited!”
South Carolina Representative Trey Gowdy appeared on Fox News today and disclosed new details about the Clinton email scandal that seem to indicate intent to destroy evidence. Per the clip below, Gowdy reveals that Clinton used "BleachBit" to erase the "personal" emails from her private server.
For those not familiar with the software, BleachBit is intended to help users delete files in a way to "prevent recovery" and "hide traces of files deleted." Per the BleachBit website:
Beyond simply deleting files, BleachBit includes advanced features such as shredding files to prevent recovery, wiping free disk space to hide traces of files deleted by other applications, and vacuuming Firefox to make it faster. During his appearance on Fox, Gowdy clearly indicates that Clinton's use of BleachBit undermines her claims that she only deleted innocuous "personal" emails from her private server.
“If she considered them to be personal, then she and her lawyers had those emails deleted. They didn’t just push the delete button, they had them deleted where even God can't read them.
"They were using something called BleachBit. You don't use BleachBit for yoga emails."
"When you're using BleachBit, it is something you really do not want the world to see."
Farage Responds To Clinton Attack: ‘She Should Spend Less Time On Me And More Time Talking to REAL People’ [url=http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/25/hillary-clinton-nigel-farage-...... ScottishFold 发表于 8/25/2016 7:06:55 PM
In 2010, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton fondly eulogized Sen. Robert Byrd, a former member and recruiter for the Ku Klux Klan. Clinton called Byrd “my friend and mentor” in a video message to commemorate his passing.
The Great Unraveling
Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington 全文等下分段贴
http://www.wsj.com/articles/years-of-fed-missteps-fueled-disillusion-with-the-economy-and-washington-1472136026
Once-revered central bank failed to foresee the crisis and has struggled in its aftermath, fostering the rise of populism and distrust of institutions
For anyone seeking to explain one of the most unpredictable political seasons in modern history, with the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, a prime suspect is public dismay in institutions guiding the economy and government. The Fed in particular is a case study in how the conventional wisdom of the late 1990s on a wide range of economic issues, including trade, technology and central banking, has since slowly unraveled.
Once admired globally for their command of the economic system, central bankers now are blamed by the left and right for bailouts during the financial crisis and for failing to foresee and manage forces suffocating the global economy in its aftermath.
英国脱欧派领袖法拉奇力赴美力挺川普 POLL都是ESTABLISHMENT造假，别相信
Nigel Farage Warns of More Establishment Fear Mongering Against Trump
http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/08/25/nigel-farage-warns-more-establishment-fear-mongering-against-trump.html
“The lessons, the parallels, are clear. What we did in the U.K. on the 23rd of June, was to strike the first really big blow against the professional political class working hand in glove with the giant multinationals and the big Wall Street banks,” Farage told the FOX Business Network’s Stuart Varney.
Farage then reacted to reports that polls on the morning of the Brexit vote showed the ‘leave’ side was substantially behind despite ultimately ending the day with a victory.
“The morning of the vote was quite remarkable, there was an opinion poll issued by what was a reputable polling company showing the ‘remain’ side ten points in the lead. And I genuinely think that what went on at the end of that campaign was a deliberate media and establishment attempt to say to voters, ‘look, Brexit isn’t going to win so why bother to go out to vote for it.’”
Farage explained that this was a key part of his message to Trump supporters.
“And what I was saying to Trump supporters last night is whatever gets said in the next 73 days in this campaign, even if they tell you that the Donald can’t win, don’t believe them, because what we saw was the deliberate attempt to fiddle the figures. Luckily we ignored it and we beat them.”
CNN AUDIENCE DROPS UNDER 750K. People are turning off the lies in increasing numbers for the third straight week. Fox News beats CNN and MSNBC combined in Primetime
https://investmentwatchblog.com/stop-watching-ihuaren.usn-audience-drops-under-750k-people-are-turning-off-the-lies-in-increasing-numbers-for-the-third-straight-week-fox-news-beats-cnn-and-msnbc-combined-in-primetime/
The Great Unraveling
Years of Fed Missteps Fueled Disillusion With the Economy and Washington
Once-revered central bank failed to foresee the crisis and has struggled in its aftermath, fostering the rise of populism and distrust of institutions
By Jon Hilsenrath
In the past decade Federal Reserve officials have been flummoxed by a housing bubble that cratered the financial system, a long stretch of slow growth they failed to foresee and inflation persistently undershooting their goal. In response they engineered unpopular financial rescues, launched start-and-stop bond buying and delayed planned interest-rate boosts.
“There are a lot of things that we thought we knew that haven’t turned out quite as we expected,” said Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. “The economy and financial markets are not as stable as we previously assumed.”
In the 1990s, a period known in economics as the “Great Moderation,” it seemed the Fed could do no wrong. Policy makers and voters saw it as a machine, with buttons officials could push to heat or cool the economy as needed. Now, after more than a decade of economic disappointment, the central bank confronts hardened public skepticism and growing self-doubt about its own understanding of how the U.S. economy works.
For anyone seeking to explain one of the most unpredictable political seasons in modern history, with the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, a prime suspect is public dismay in institutions guiding the economy and government. The Fed in particular is a case study in how the conventional wisdom of the late 1990s on a wide range of economic issues, including trade, technology and central banking, has since slowly unraveled.
Once admired globally for their command of the economic system, central bankers now are blamed by the left and right for bailouts during the financial crisis and for failing to foresee and manage forces suffocating the global economy in its aftermath.
Populist protest movements called “Fed Up,” “End the Fed” and “Occupy Wall Street” lashed out at the bank’s policies, and in the case of End the Fed, its very existence. Lawmakers of both parties want to subject it to more scrutiny or curb its powers.
“We had the grasshoppers party from 2002 to 2007 and winter came and the Fed bailed them out,” said Mr. Einhorn, referring to financial firms and individuals who lived above their means. “Now the ants are pissed.”
The Fed’s struggles will be on display from Friday to Sunday when it gathers for an annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo. On issues of growth, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and how to fight a recession, basic assumptions inside the central bank’s complex computer models have been upended.
“I certainly myself couldn’t have imagined six, seven years ago that we would be employing the policies we are now,” Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said to a packed ballroom in New York earlier this year. She lamented the government has leaned so heavily on the Fed to stimulate the economy while tax and spending policies were stymied by disagreements between Congress and the White House.
Many Fed officials believe—and private economists agree—their responses to the crisis helped avert a second Depression, outweighing any unfairness in the bailout process. Fed leaders believe low rates helped, too. “Inflation would be lower and unemployment higher now by noticeable amounts had we not employed those policies,” Ms. Yellen said in March.
Regardless, confidence in the central bank’s leadership has dropped. An April Gallup poll found 38% of Americans had a great deal or fair amount of confidence in Ms. Yellen, while 35% had little or none. In the early 2000s, confidence in Chairman Alan Greenspan often exceeded 70%.
First, officials missed signs that a more complex financial system had become vulnerable to financial bubbles, and bubbles had become a growing threat in a low-interest-rate world.
Secondly, they were blinded to a long-running slowdown in the growth of worker productivity, or output per hour of labor, which has limited how fast the economy could grow since 2004.
Thirdly, inflation hasn’t responded to the ups and downs of the job market in the way the Fed expected.
The shifting financial, productivity and inflation scenarios made it hard to gauge where interest rates belonged even before the financial crisis and are central to Ms. Yellen’s dilemmas today.
She is trying to raise short-term rates, but the economy so far has proved too feeble to absorb more than one small increase from near zero last December. If she waits too long before moving again, she could encourage bubbles. If she raises rates too much, she could cut off a fragile expansion and, in a replay of Japan’s experience, never drive inflation to the Fed’s target of 2%.
“Unfortunately, all economic projections are certain to turn out to be inaccurate in some respects, and possibly significantly so,” Ms. Yellen warned in a June speech. “The uncertainties are sizable.”
Simulations the Fed did with FRB/US during debates about a possible housing bubble in 2005 and again in 2007 failed to show how a fall in home prices would ripple through the financial sector, freezing credit that was the lifeblood of the economy.
“Assuming that the FRB/US model does a good job of capturing the macroeconomic implications of declining house prices, such an event does not pose a particularly difficult challenge for monetary policy,” John Williams, then a Fed analyst and now president of the San Francisco Fed, said during a debate on the housing boom in 2005.
The model showed the economy could weather a 20% drop in home prices with small increases in unemployment and modest cuts in interest rates.
Ferbus didn’t account for the damage that unstable financial institutions can do to an economy. Unemployment rose to 10%, the Fed cut rates to near zero and then launched programs that ballooned its securities portfolio to more than $4 trillion.
Fed officials say they are alert to the financial system’s risks and have cushioned it by forcing banks to hold more capital. Other entities, such as hedge funds and money-market funds, are more closely watched.
Still, some worry that even with those efforts, continuing very low rates could feed instability by driving investors too heavily into some asset class in search of higher returns.
Mr. Rosengren is worried about booming commercial real estate. “You do have to think about some of the collateral effects that can occur when interest rates are low for a long period,” he said. “Real estate is one of those sectors.”
Richard Fisher, former president of the Dallas Fed, said low interest rates are adding to discontent by forcing consumers to save more to meet their nest-egg needs. The unintended message households get from low rates, he said, is “you’re going to have to save a hell of a lot more before you consume.”
Fed models didn’t pick up on a broader economic slowdown already in train by 2004 because the people running the models also didn’t recognize productivity growth was entering an extended slowdown.
In the long run, an economy can expand only at a rate sustained by the growth of its labor force and the productivity of its workers. During the 1990s, output per hour surged, in part because companies poured money into new technologies and machinery. Many economists assumed the high-tech economy would keep fueling rapid productivity growth, but it didn’t, for reasons economists still don’t fully understand.
In the decade from 1994 to 2003, U.S. output per hour worked rose annually by an average 2.8%. Since then it has grown at 1.3%, including just 0.4% since 2011.
Private economists, too, have been baffled by these developments. But Fed miscalculations have consequences, contributing to start-and-stop policies since the crisis. Officials ended bond-buying programs, thinking the economy was picking up, then restarted them when it didn’t and inflation drifted lower. Its shifts became a source of uncertainty in financial markets.
A slow-growing economy can’t bear high interest rates, and so the Fed also hasn’t delivered as many rate increases as it said it planned. In June 2015, officials estimated their benchmark short-term rate would exceed 1.5% by the end of this year. It remains below 0.5%.
“They have held out the prospect of tighter money, and that has had a discouraging effect on demand to a greater extent than would have been ideal,” said Lawrence Summers, a Harvard professor and former Treasury Secretary. “They have lost credibility by constantly predicting tightening that, out of prudence, they didn’t deliver.”
For years after the financial crisis, officials attributed slow growth to temporary headwinds, such as banks’ unwillingness to lend. Now they are coming to think the productivity slowdown is the root of the problem, and might not go away.
For James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, uncertainty about the long-run growth and rate outlook led to an about-face.
Fed officials regularly project where they think rates are heading over the longer run. The projection is a signal to the public of how monetary policy is expected to evolve over several years. Unsure about how the economy is behaving and what it means for rates, Mr. Bullard scrapped his forecast altogether.
“We are backing off the idea that we have dogmatic certainty about where the U.S. economy is headed in the medium and longer run,” he said in a paper in June.
Inflation is the third ingredient in the Fed’s self-doubt. For years it has been largely unresponsive to the ups and downs of unemployment, defying the conventional view that inflation rises when unemployment falls, and vice versa. Unemployment surged during the financial crisis, but inflation didn’t fall much, as Fed models suggested it should. And when joblessness fell, inflation didn’t move up much, either.
In offices adjacent to Ms. Yellen, two Fed governors, Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo, are lobbying against interest-rate increases because they aren’t convinced by models suggesting inflation will eventually rise.
“Inflation is not at our stated target, not near our stated target, and hasn’t been so in quite some time,” Mr. Tarullo said in a June interview.
Still looming is potentially the biggest reversal of all in the modern conventions of central banking. If another recession hits, it isn’t clear the Fed has the tools available to mend the economy, a subject Ms. Yellen could address in Jackson Hole.
Traditionally the Fed cuts interest rates in a downturn. With its benchmark short-term rate near zero, it can’t be pushed much lower. If recession hits, the Fed will likely resort to unpopular tools used after the financial crisis, including Treasury-bond purchases and more promises to keep short-term rates low far into the future.
“We should be extremely worried,” Mr. Summers said. “We are essentially on a fairly dangerous battlefield with very little ammunition.”
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/259719
http://www.gold678.com/C/20160825/201608251535352138.html
http://tw.on.cc/int/bkn/cnt/news/20160825/bknint-20160825183233377-0825_17011_001_cn.html
为什么你现在不贴中国崩溃的消息？
一个是没时间，一个是土共崩溃正在进行中，大家自己坐着看戏吧。
Nigel Farage Warns of More Establishment Fear Mongering Against Trump
http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/08/25/nigel-farage-warns-more-establishment-fear-mongering-against-trump.html
Former U.K. Independence Party Leader Nigel Farage weighed in on the parallels between the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union and Republican nominee Donald Trump’s anti-establishment presidential campaign.
“The lessons, the parallels, are clear. What we did in the U.K. on the 23rd of June, was to strike the first really big blow against the professional political class working hand in glove with the giant multinationals and the big Wall Street banks,” Farage told the FOX Business Network’s Stuart Varney.
Farage then reacted to reports that polls on the morning of the Brexit vote showed the ‘leave’ side was substantially behind despite ultimately ending the day with a victory.
“The morning of the vote was quite remarkable, there was an opinion poll issued by what was a reputable polling company showing the ‘remain’ side ten points in the lead. And I genuinely think that what went on at the end of that campaign was a deliberate media and establishment attempt to say to voters, ‘look, Brexit isn’t going to win so why bother to go out to vote for it.’”
Farage explained that this was a key part of his message to Trump supporters.
“And what I was saying to Trump supporters last night is whatever gets said in the next 73 days in this campaign, even if they tell you that the Donald can’t win, don’t believe them, because what we saw was the deliberate attempt to fiddle the figures. Luckily we ignored it and we beat them.”
Farage then weighed in on Obama’s trip to Britain in April in which he told voters to support the U.K. remaining in the European Union.
When Varney pointed out claims that the British people resented President Obama traveling to Britain in April and telling voters to support the U.K. remaining in the European Union and that Americans might view Farage’s comments on the U.S. election in a similar way, Farage responded, “I didn’t tell anyone how to vote, I wouldn’t dare do such a thing, I did suggest though that if I was an American citizen, I wouldn’t vote for Hillary because nothing is going to change if that woman wins. She represents that corporate, media club that have had their own way over the last 20 or 30 years that have led us into an endless series of wars and led us into a world where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”
我的看法是川普一定会赢，因为伊斯兰恐怖分子是美国国家安全最大的威胁。川普会把工作拿回美国，大家都有饼分。
Trump campaign manager: The polls are wrong because we have 'undercover Trump voters'
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-manager-polls-wrong-kellyanne-conway-2016-8
联储和世界央行集体放水，就是保护富人财富，加速财富向上积聚。说联储造就了床铺也说得过去。
不这么讲选不上呗。
美国绝对不可能搞社会主义，在美国想搞这个简直是做梦，你太不了解美国人了，尤其是在美国人手里有枪的时候，绝对绝对不可能，川普今年肯定上台了。
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3756758/Trump-campaign-manager-says-Donald-actually-WINNING-insists-undercover-voters-turn-droves-elect-pollsters-say-right.html
不讲也能赢，这样讲稀拉拉WILL GET CRASHED
什么时候转变立场了？左媒篡改的吧
https://gma.yahoo.com/trump-delaying-immigration-speech-campaign-sources-233926092--abc-news-topstories.html
Donald Trump Insists He's Not Flip-Flopping on Immigration
Trump insisted earlier today that he was not reversing his stance on immigration, after a weekend of various reports.
"I will tell you, we are dealing with people," Trump said during an interview on "Fox & Friends." "We have to be very firm. We have to be very, very strong when people come in illegally. We have a lot of people that want to come in through the legal process and it's fair for them. We're working with a lot of people in the Hispanic community to try and come up with an answer."
Trump has suggested deporting the country's millions of undocumented immigrants and heaped criticism on them for a number of the problems facing the country.
Trump's comments come amid reports over the weekend that during a roundtable meeting with Hispanic leaders, he expressed an openness to changing his hard-line stance on undocumented immigration.
Helen Aguirre-Ferré, the director of Hispanic communications for the Republican National Committee, attended that meeting, and she told ABC News that Trump never mentioned the word "legalization" or indicated an openness to a path to legal status. But she did add that he was open to hearing the observations and comments from those gathered.
"Mr. Trump was very clear that he was working on his immigration plan and that it will be fair. He did not provide any indication of what that means in terms of policy. He never used the word "legalization," and the group was very supportive of his call for increased border security," she added.
民主党鼓励不劳而获才是想搞社会主义，川普减税那不是社会主义，川普把工作拿回美国鼓励人工作不是社会主义，川普搞的是美国优先，美国人优先。
管他左媒篡改不篡改呢，左媒上还不都是左派在看，他们看了还会觉得川普很好，就让他们去乱报吧，呵呵。川普肯定会赢，就是赢的比例大小的问题了。
其实就是社会主义。重新分配下财富。社会主义也是按劳取酬。现在是欲劳而不得。
桑德斯才是社会主义，川普不是。你就不要乱说了。
加州最低工资调涨 美国成衣厂忙搬家
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/1804742
Hillary Clinton Calls 31 Million Breitbart Readers ‘Racist’ Klansmen
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/25/hillary-clinton-calls-31-million-breitbart-readers-racist-klansmen/
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/08/24/trump-no-citizenship-for-people-in-us-illegally-for-long-period-but-theyll-pay-back-taxes-and-we-work-with-them/
Black Gun Rights Activist Launches ‘Black Guns Matter’
http://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2016/08/24/black-gun-rights-activist-launches-black-guns-matter/
Gun rights activist Maj Toure is seeking to educate his fellow black citizens on the importance of the Second Amendment, gun ownership, and gun safety via his new group, “Black Guns Matter” (BGM).
全球化就是资本主义的高级阶段，资本自由流动利润最大化。
川普就是靠着对这个的anger获得共和党内胜利，怎么不是社会主义性质的政策修正？不过是没有桑的死那么极端罢了。
这些人都靠选票上台，必须估计多数选民利益，都打着反对建制的旗号。所以都是对极度逐利的资本主义的修正，所以说都是社会主义向的修正恰如其分，不过走多远的区别。
我管你左还是右，只要美国优先，美国人优先就行，今年川普两党通吃外加中间派。
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/25/assange-vows-clinton-email-release-as-storm-clouds-gather-for-candidate.html
呵呵，你会失望的。川普不是罗斯福，他是个机会主义者借机实现个人野心的。His heart is not in the right place. 人的过去define his future.
呵呵，是你会失望才是真的。你知道吗，只要不是稀拉拉上我就很满意，就这样。
谁上都差不多。不是亚裔做主的国家。等着美国分裂的时候我们才有机会。
那你慢慢等吧。既然你觉得谁上都差不多，那就川普上吧。
万事皆有可能。美国人口结构已经改变。
不是要发财，那条路也许才是北美华裔的稳定未来。
人口从来都不是问题，教育改革即可，所以你慢慢等吧。我看你连投票权都没有。
Trump: Hillary Attacking ‘Millions of Decent Americans’ with Racism Charge
‘Oldest Play in the Democratic Playbook’
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/25/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-attacking-millions-of-decent-americans-with-racism-charge/
Donald Trump addressed Hillary Clinton’s upcoming remarks on the “alt-right” movement during his campaign rally in New Hampshire on Thursday, saying it’s “the oldest play in the Democratic playbook” and that although Democrats always return to that same well, “the well has run dry.”
http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/08/25/matt-drudge-clinton-cash-one-scariest-movies-ive-seen/
Watched 'Clinton Cash' last night. Scariest movie since The Invitation! You've been warned https://t.co/pUlv3Vk1hd pic.twitter.com/9ndJwcMIXS
— MATT DRUDGE (@DRUDGE) August 25, 2016
Drudge’s tweet on Thursday is remarkably distinct, as it is one of only a few.
He used this rare post to tweet out a link to a YouTube page for Clinton Cash, the explosive documentary film that exposes the Clinton Foundation’s worldwide nexus of corruption and influence peddling.
Drudge’s tweet also featured a meticulously detailed infographic, charting, according to Radar Online, “How the career politicians made $110 million and pulled in much more to the Clinton Foundation, who paid for their over-the-top lifestyle, and how foreign entities might have benefited!”
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.08
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/08/24/msnbcs-mitchell-steve-bannon-knows-what-buttons-to-push-against-hillary/
http://video.foxnews.com/v/5098462949001/rep-gowdy-hillary-clinton-is-a-habitual-serial-liar/?#sp=show-clips
South Carolina Representative Trey Gowdy appeared on Fox News today and
disclosed new details about the Clinton email scandal that seem to indicate
intent to destroy evidence. Per the clip below, Gowdy reveals that Clinton
used "BleachBit" to erase the "personal" emails from her private server.
For those not familiar with the software, BleachBit is intended to help
users delete files in a way to "prevent recovery" and "hide traces of files
deleted." Per the BleachBit website:
Beyond simply deleting files, BleachBit includes advanced features such as
shredding files to prevent recovery, wiping free disk space to hide traces
of files deleted by other applications, and vacuuming Firefox to make it
faster.
During his appearance on Fox, Gowdy clearly indicates that Clinton's use of
BleachBit undermines her claims that she only deleted innocuous "personal"
emails from her private server.
“If she considered them to be personal, then she and her lawyers had those
emails deleted. They didn’t just push the delete button, they had them
deleted where even God can't read them.
"They were using something called BleachBit. You don't use BleachBit for
yoga emails."
"When you're using BleachBit, it is something you really do not want the
world to see."
好喜欢他滴British accent
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/25/hillary-clinton-nigel-farage-bed-vladamir-putin/
'Assassination attempt on Angela Merkel' feared as armed man arrested 'trying to infiltrate German chancellor's motorcade' in Prague
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/assassination-attempt-on-angela-merkel--8706692
University of Chicago: We Don't Condone Safe Spaces or 'Trigger Warnings'
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/education/university-chicago-we-don-t-condone-safe-spaces-or-trigger-n637721
==这绝对是川普的连锁反应。老川站出来，现在有胆识的人都在跟上
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/08/25/arab-women-attack-austrian-police-resort/
Two Arab tourists attacked Austrian police at a popular resort where the officers were bitten, spat on and kicked.
Flashback: Hillary Clinton Praises ‘Friend and Mentor’ Robert Byrd (a KKK Recruiter)
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/25/hillary-clinton-friend-mentor-robert-byrd-kkk/
In 2010, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton fondly eulogized Sen. Robert Byrd, a former member and recruiter for the Ku Klux Klan. Clinton called Byrd “my friend and mentor” in a video message to commemorate his passing.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/25/hillary-clinton-is-a-bigot/
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/08/25/900-illegals-terror-linked-countries-apprehended-along-southwest-border-since-2014/
http://abcnews.go.com/International/kayla-mueller-captivity-courage-selflessness-defended-christian-faith/story?id=41626763
mm你真耐心。不过你也有漏洞：认为那位作者是逻辑不严密才做出不合常理的推理。
隔壁帖子发表于前两天，川普没有说任何和种族相关的言论，白人群体也没在这段时间有什么特殊行动，怎么哪位楼主就想起来发无比长的帖子掘地三尺硬拉上川普？我本来还在奇怪，毫无来由。你看我发的大选帖，scottish的帖子，基本都是摘当天的新闻，是"reaction", 而不是"proactive“。
而今天一切都让人恍然大悟：希拉里为了转移对她基金会的注意力，突然也是同样无直接证据的抹黑川普是种族主义者，手法和隔壁几乎一样，牵强到有人说会backfire。而那位楼主简直神机妙算啊，抢先一步为希拉里的突兀论调铺垫，正如克林顿身边莫名死掉的那些人一样，让人惊叹这世间真是充满了大大的“巧合”。
选举是用手中的一票做出选择 在未来的四年 对自己 对孩子 对国家负责
绝不是在比较谁高尚 谁站在道德制高点
这对亚裔尤其重要 因为没有人为我们说话 我们的声音必须依靠选票传达出去
有生存才有发展 在生存出现危机的时候 还谈圣母 只不过是没有政治敏感度 刀架到脖子上尚不知危险 仍然在担心隔壁邻居冬天的棉袄是棉花的 不是羽绒的 会不会冻着
如果连这点都没看明白 就不要瞎扯什么政治
对了，还有挖出来骗捐的，反正说的特别好听圣母那一套，其实是盯着你兜里的钱
这些人就不要做梦希拉拉能上台了，已经没可能了。川普今年肯定上台了。他们这种都是属于看不清形势的。
说实话看了这么多帖子，猫比你有见识多了。她现在无非是对美国红色化担心到极点，虽然我觉得她是担心过度。但她明显是那种可以随时停下来做正常人的人。我看你这架势真是够呛。
你的Trump是无耻，你是无知。无知除了伤人就是自伤。你继续把你的大把时间每天花在搜集你自己看都来不及看的假新闻上，原来还有的判断能力也能被你自己给玩脱掉。
你要到处说我64血卡政治避难希拉里竞选班底，你继续，我随便。
我业余搞成你眼里的专业水平，至少证明我不象你们这么蠢，呵呵