The reality of a contested convention has become more real than ever, with Donald Trump facing the risk of losing Wisconsin next week, meaning he’d have to win roughly 60 percent of the remaining delegates to win the Republican presidential nomination outright. If Trump heads into the convention without the magic number of 1,237, already more than a hundred delegates are poised to break with him on a second ballot, according to interviews with dozens of delegates, delegate candidates, operatives and party leaders.
Ted Cruz has been whipping Trump in the quiet, early race to elect his own loyalists to become delegates to the convention, meaning that the Texas senator could triumph through delegates who are freed to vote their own preferences on a second ballot, regardless of who won their state.
现在对trump来讲，毕竟还是有希望获得共和党提名，即使有open convention,也只能死磕了。也因为现在还有希望获得提名，所以最佳策略是集中精力竞选拿delegate。时间上完全来不及准备third party了，需要收集大量签名。如果在open convention（Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, July 18-21）拿不到 nomination的话，已经来不及了，自己看看这个deadline链接，那时已经错过了好几个州的third party deadline了，况且收集签名也不是随便谁的签名都可以，条件多多，收集签名本身也是挺耗时的。所以即使以third party竞选，最后在很多州连名字都没法挂上去。
winner takes all at state and congress district level，和MO一样那种 Of the state’s 42 Republican delegates, 24 are allocated by congressional district. The GOP’s other 18 delegates — 15 at large and three members of the Republican National Committee — go to the winner statewide.
Trump has more appeal to Republicans in the north and west. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz looks formidable in the vote-rich southeast. Ohio Gov. John Kasich could pick up delegates in southern Wisconsin even if he finishes third statewide.
貌似能拿6-9个就可以： Previous Republican primaries offer some clues. In 2012 and 2008, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee lost statewide, got slaughtered in the populous southeast, but performed well with rural voters. Against John McCain in ’08, Huckabee won the Third and Seventh districts in the west and north. Against Mitt Romney in 2012, Santorum won the Third, Seventh and the Eighth in northeast Wisconsin.
Trump’s support has followed a similar pattern to theirs in the polling: he could lose statewide and still pick up six to nine delegates. But if Cruz outperforms his 10-point lead in the Marquette poll, Trump could conceivably come away with no delegates — a huge blow, mathematically and psychologically.
3/31：Hilary had an angry outburst from Clinton on Thursday when Greenpeace activist Eva Resnick-Day confronted her at a campaign event in New York. Resnick-Day asked whether Clinton would reject future fossil fuel money in her campaign.
“I do not have — I have money from people who work for fossil fuel companies,” Clinton said, pointing her finger at Resnick-Day. “I am so sick — I am so sick — of the Sanders campaign lying about me. I’m sick of it.”
Sander's response: "Secretary Clinton owes us an apology. We were not lying. We were telling the truth," the Vermont senator said during a standard section of his stump speech here.
"The truth is that Secretary Clinton has relied heavily on funds from lobbyists working for the oil, gas and coal industry. According to an analysis done by Greenpeace, Hillary Clinton's campaign and her super PAC have received more than $4.5 million from the fossil fuel industry," he said. He added: "In fact, 57 oil gas and coal industry lobbyists have directly contributed to her campaign, with 43 of them contributing the maximum allowed for the primary. And these are not just workers in the fossil fuel industry, these are paid, registered lobbyists."
3/31：Hilary had an angry outburst from Clinton on Thursday when Greenpeace activist Eva Resnick-Day confronted her at a campaign event in New York. Resnick-Day asked whether Clinton would reject future fossil fuel money in her campaign.
“I do not have — I have money from people who work for fossil fuel companies,” Clinton said, pointing her finger at Resnick-Day. “I am so sick — I am so sick — of the Sanders campaign lying about me. I’m sick of it.”
Sander's response: "Secretary Clinton owes us an apology. We were not lying. We were telling the truth," the Vermont senator said during a standard section of his stump speech here.
"The truth is that Secretary Clinton has relied heavily on funds from lobbyists working for the oil, gas and coal industry. According to an analysis done by Greenpeace, Hillary Clinton's campaign and her super PAC have received more than $4.5 million from the fossil fuel industry," he said. He added: "In fact, 57 oil gas and coal industry lobbyists have directly contributed to her campaign, with 43 of them contributing the maximum allowed for the primary. And these are not just workers in the fossil fuel industry, these are paid, registered lobbyists." luckyso 发表于 4/1/2016 11:30:22 PM
中午出去吃饭，看见一队liberal游行反Trump，各路妖魔鬼怪穿着奇装异服，还有全裸的。有个老太举的牌子上写着“make America grate again”，还有举Trump画像的“orange is the new white”。Liberal就这素质，太恶心。 hermione918 发表于 4/2/2016 12:40:20 AM
中午出去吃饭，看见一队liberal游行反Trump，各路妖魔鬼怪穿着奇装异服，还有全裸的。有个老太举的牌子上写着“make America grate again”，还有举Trump画像的“orange is the new white”。Liberal就这素质，太恶心。 hermione918 发表于 4/2/2016 12:40:20 AM
中午出去吃饭，看见一队liberal游行反Trump，各路妖魔鬼怪穿着奇装异服，还有全裸的。有个老太举的牌子上写着“make America grate again”，还有举Trump画像的“orange is the new white”。Liberal就这素质，太恶心。 hermione918 发表于 4/2/2016 12:40:20 AM
http://www.hannity.com/articles/hanpr-election-493995/this-might-be-the-weirdest-attack-14559611/
super PAC 居然为了kasich攻击curz，难道要dump cruz? 不过他们内讧也是好事
哈哈，奸臣快滚，看他就讨厌
This is what one of the hardcore Trump supporters is following. It's probably the one you are asking for https://twitter.com/TrumpStudents
谢谢，follow了
Chris的手大？跟这儿捡什么嘴上的便宜啊，贱不贱啊，跟他妈的菜市场的小市民似的
这人当初说采访O8时， "thrills up his legs", 成为笑柄。还有脸说别人。
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
Trump最新的WI video ad提到small biz的tax break了，看来竞选班子听取了大家的建议，强调了重点方面。
看最新的Trump这边的消息，似乎一直没打算WI赢，只要得到一些delegates就可以了，最后算起来还是能够票数。
好,拼一下
Kasish的策略也是对的,从Cruz那里拉人,先把cruz干掉再说,别跟rubio似的,上来就跟trump争,结果自己牺牲便宜了cruz.
是的,有几个做radio的,嘴贱得不得了,估计想借trump出名
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
最早O'Reily没站在Trump这边的时候，在它的The Factor上interview Trump的时候，它各种的损Trump啊，它说什么来着，我有点不记得原话了，反正就是Trump说要跟习近平吃饭，好像是要搞好关系之类的，O'Reily说什么，谁知道习近平是谁啊。
我也是上twitter骂了O'Reily n条，说它不知道习近平是谁？你可是journalist啊，你连习近平都不知道，你怎么做的功课啊，你不知道习近平，习近平更不屑知道O'Reily是谁，不过习近平肯定知道Trump是谁。哈哈。
骂完后不久，O'Reily就皈依了，向着Trump了。
是不是也有我的功劳？
哈哈。
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
Trump要拿不够代表数，真可能在第二轮被搞下去。
The reality of a contested convention has become more real than ever, with
Donald Trump facing the risk of losing Wisconsin next week, meaning he’d
have to win roughly 60 percent of the remaining delegates to win the
Republican presidential nomination outright.
If Trump heads into the convention without the magic number of 1,237,
already more than a hundred delegates are poised to break with him on a
second ballot, according to interviews with dozens of delegates, delegate
candidates, operatives and party leaders.
Ted Cruz has been whipping Trump in the quiet, early race to elect his own
loyalists to become delegates to the convention, meaning that the Texas
senator could triumph through delegates who are freed to vote their own
preferences on a second ballot, regardless of who won their state.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-uphill-delegate-scramble-221443#ixzz44cF7gApM
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-uphill-delegate-scramble-221443#ixzz44cF4Wi00
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
去他们的governor主页上去骂,那个Scott Walker,警告他不要作弊,endorse了Cruz已经是他人生一大污点
希望governor 魔咒管用,endorse了谁谁输,LOL
一开始只公布了四场event在Winsconsin 我以为就这些了,心想老头估计要放弃了
今天下午一下子出来6场安排,前面是不是麻痹对手啊,对手想安排今天也来不及了,明天周末
而且投票日前的rally,鼓舞性应该特别强,Palin也跟着一起去,她应该比Carly更有煽动性吧
是啊 看他一路走来,真的不容易,到处明枪暗箭,前面有堵的,后面有追的,一场场撕杀下来,他不赢真没天理了
加州很重要,胜败都决定在加州,如果加州全赢应该美问题
independent Run。 我要是他就坚持到最后。输了就组建第三党。彻底改变美国政治。千古留名。赢了就更不用说了，史上第一人。
怎么感觉以第三党参选也不大可能了？请懂的姐妹解释一下：
转帖：trump不会以third party竞选的
现在对trump来讲，毕竟还是有希望获得共和党提名，即使有open convention,也只能死磕了。也因为现在还有希望获得提名，所以最佳策略是集中精力竞选拿delegate。时间上完全来不及准备third party了，需要收集大量签名。如果在open convention（Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, July 18-21）拿不到
nomination的话，已经来不及了，自己看看这个deadline链接，那时已经错过了好几个州的third party deadline了，况且收集签名也不是随便谁的签名都可以，条件多多，收集签名本身也是挺耗时的。所以即使以third party竞选，最后在很多州连名字都没法挂上去。
本来以third party竞选胜出几率就非常非常低，如果很多州连名字都没法在deadline前挂上去，胜选的几率为零。
所以GOP establishment也不会推出自己的人以third party竞选，trump也不会以thirdparty竞选，到时候不管谁，时间上来不及准备third party run了，到时third party
的话，那纯粹就是捣乱砸场的意思了。
选票上没名字也可以write in对不？
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
winner takes all at state and congress district level，和MO一样那种
Of the state’s 42 Republican delegates, 24 are allocated by congressional district. The GOP’s other 18 delegates — 15 at large and three members of the Republican National Committee — go to the winner statewide.
Trump has more appeal to Republicans in the north and west. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz looks formidable in the vote-rich southeast. Ohio Gov. John Kasich could pick up delegates in southern Wisconsin even if he finishes third statewide.
Previous Republican primaries offer some clues. In 2012 and 2008, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee lost statewide, got slaughtered in the populous southeast, but performed well with rural voters. Against John McCain in ’08, Huckabee won the Third and Seventh districts in the west and north. Against Mitt Romney in 2012, Santorum won the Third, Seventh and the Eighth in northeast Wisconsin.
Trump’s support has followed a similar pattern to theirs in the polling: he could lose statewide and still pick up six to nine delegates. But if Cruz outperforms his 10-point lead in the Marquette poll, Trump could conceivably come away with no delegates — a huge blow, mathematically and psychologically.
WI州winner只值18个，区里3×8也才24个
这篇文对delegates的rule讲的比较清楚
貌似奸臣已经放弃NY了，NY是州长在搞。I did it in Ohio, I will do it again听的遍数太多都想吐了，一个Ohio的州长能在纽约引起共鸣吗？纽约人还是很傲的
WI这地方非移不多，建制派大本营，Trump赢起来确实困难。
“I do not have — I have money from people who work for fossil fuel companies,” Clinton said, pointing her finger at Resnick-Day. “I am so sick — I am so sick — of the Sanders campaign lying about me. I’m sick of it.”
Sander's response: "Secretary Clinton owes us an apology. We were not lying. We were telling the truth," the Vermont senator said during a standard section of his stump speech here.
"The truth is that Secretary Clinton has relied heavily on funds from lobbyists working for the oil, gas and coal industry. According to an analysis done by Greenpeace, Hillary Clinton's campaign and her super PAC have received more than $4.5 million from the fossil fuel industry," he said.
He added: "In fact, 57 oil gas and coal industry lobbyists have directly contributed to her campaign, with 43 of them contributing the maximum allowed for the primary. And these are not just workers in the fossil fuel industry, these are paid, registered lobbyists."
这期people杂志封面是Trump，我正在看那篇文章，写得还算客观吧，里面说船长相信自己genetically胜任总统的工作（不知道杂志有没有啥暗示），每天只睡4小时就够了，rally上站着演讲当锻炼身体：）然后杂志感叹怪不得Trump说jeb low energy哈哈哈
平常这杂志都直接扔垃圾箱呵呵
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
这个kasich，又支持common core, 又支持08提名的大法官，还支持非法移民，我看他才是民主党的卧底吧！
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
说他没收视率啊。当然是撕最红的
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
我去了techbridge上看了他们过去活动的照片觉得挺正常的组织，没有非常明显的倾向性。这个到底是怎么了。。。
肺都要气炸了，scumbags ，就会欺负年轻姑娘, 穆斯林女人是怎么活得？
http://www.tellmenow.com/2016/02/obamas-muslim-refugees-caught-on-camera-doing-unspeakable-things-to-women/?source=TPI
Obama’s Muslim ‘Refugees’ Caught On Camera Doing Unspeakable Things To Women
一群无所事事，游手好闲，好吃懒做，道德败坏的人渣！Obama和民主党是纵容这些人的罪魁祸首
不知道以前有没有贴过。。。从年轻到现在，船长几十年都是这么patriotic，consistent，persistent，down to earth的一个人，好感动
GOP Becomes The Party of Bad Ideas: Only Trump Can Save Them
共和党建制派那些loser是真傻还是装傻，除了老头，没有人可以救这个衰落的党派，除了那些脑子进水的神棍，谁还会share他们落后的理念。