逆转!经济学人预测:川普以276张选举人票胜出

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《经济学人》自8月以来首次预测川普当选。(美联社)

距离美国总统大选仅剩2週,英国《经济学人》最新预测出现逆转,预估川普胜选机率为54%,川普将以276张选举人票击败贺锦丽的262张,重回美国总统职务,这是《经济学人》自8月以来,首次预测川普当选。

综合媒体报导,《经济学人》利用预测模型参考近来民调结果,以及美国每个州的经济状况、人口特徵和过去选举结果等来模拟,模型计算出川普胜选预估机率为54%,较过去一週飙升6个百分点,贺锦丽则仅剩下约45%,这是《经济学人》自8月以来,首次预测川普当选。

预测模型显示,在7个关键摇摆州中,川普可望夺下亚利桑那州、乔治亚州、北卡罗莱纳州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康辛州等5州,而贺锦丽则在密西根州和内华达州2个摇摆州,以51%、52%微弱优势领先。

全美538张选举人票中,《经济学人》模式预估,川普将以276张选举人票击败贺锦丽的262张;不过摇摆州中拥有最多19张选举人票的宾州,将成为选战关键,《经济学人》分析,如果贺锦丽在宾州输给川普,那她赢得总统大选的机会只有13%,而川普若丢掉宾州,胜率则只剩下10%。

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yhr
1 楼
就怕深夜曲线再现。
秒秒
2 楼
那什么预言。什么卡通人物一个女总统产生那些信息怎么理解啊。
量子纠结
3 楼
现在民主党唯一的希望就是像2016年那样,民调出了大误差,左媒民调集体不知道出于什么动机要低估唱衰哈哈。
低智商猪头
4 楼
东西方预言都是哈里斯当选,两个白头翁一死一落空帝国残破日女王坐当中。哈哈
低智商猪头
5 楼
什么动机,催票呗,很多黑人吃福利却不积极参与投票,如若哈里斯落选,他们的福利将会缩水。
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Bhistory
6 楼
rumble. com/v5jnov9-live-with-julie.html?start=636 TENSIONS ARE GROWING IN THE ENEMY’S CAMP [Word heard – October 18, 2024] My children, tensions are growing in the enemy’s camp. Some will break under the pressure seeing they are losing and every day appears to be worse than the day before. Your enemies in Washington are petrified at what they are seeing with My David. He’s growing in strength and more people are turning to him. They know the deals he has made with some of their own party trying to save themselves. But there are deals on the table given to My David, even the Establishment doesn’t know about. Your leaders are unaware people have turned on them when it looks like in all in Washington they are still on your side. Sabotage is coming from your leaders in Washington against their own. I told you their puppets are failing to a degree they never thought possible. This is when your enemies will appear more dangerous with their actions they try against you and against this nation. Confusion is growing in Washington on what to do to stop this election because they realize they can’t cheat enough to win. Desperation is growing to a whole new level. AS their desperation continues to grow, so will their mistakes and mishaps along with their mouths being their worst enemies. Your leaders in Washington are about to do something they said they would never do. But this mighty be their only option. They are screaming to one another, IF HE GETS IN WE ARE DONE FOR. There is no option for him to get back into the White House. We will all be arrested or worse. What does he have? How can we find out? And are there other options to take him out and be successful? My children your enemies are having these conversations. They don’t know what to do with My David. The Establishment is about to let their wolves out of their cages to come after this nation. They want total anarchy and unrest. They wanted Civil War, anything where they can take emergency measures and proclaim Martial Law. They need more control so you can have less freedoms and be no threat to their machine from continuing to run this nation.
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Bhistory
7 楼
(Part 2) Your enemies are even questioning and contemplating about starting WW3 right now – to have a strike so devastating to this nation, not caring on how many lives are lost because they’d be safe in their positions and could stay in control. They would determine how much foreign enemies are allowed to do against you, even though there’s a good chance they may give the enemy too much leeway and it might go south quickly if not controlled. My children, this is a time - is very dangerous, a time to be when your enemies are realizing they are defeated and when they still choose not to wave that white flag. AS your enemies are losing strength and unity, My children I am giving you My strength and you will grow in unity despite the great divide your enemies have caused in My church. Great vindication is coming for My chosen voices that were being attacked and threatened to be silenced by the religious leaders. Those leaders will have a great wake-up call when they see that the truth that cannot be denied. Their doctrines and religious lies will not stand and they’ll be judged for choking My Word out of congregations with legalism and their opinions. A shaking is coming to those behind the pulpits who try to silence My prophets, who try to silence them on giving My Words and preparing the hearts of My people for battle. The world is and against this evil. Those who have been prideful and arrogant will themselves take a fall from where they have been. Pride comes before a fall and it also says in My Word touch not My anointed and do My prophets no harm. But some have chosen to ignore those words and went after those I have chosen to [try???] and disgrace them with repeated persecution and lies. Judgment is coming to those against My remnant. They had time to repent and chose to ignore those warnings. So My children you will see church leaders fall in disgrace. You have seen the unprecedented amount of CEO’s and Presidents of companies leave their positions and now you will see many in the churches do the same. A cleansing of My church has begun because this is a time of My glory being poured out and in order for the world to receive this amount, I must have the people in positions that are willing to receive it and believe - I am still capable of doing such moves of the Spirit, like I have spoken of in My Word. There are some in churches teaching that this has passed away and I no longer do these things. That is a lie because I am still the same yesterday, today and forever.
华伦久费
8 楼
哈里斯在内华达怎么可能有戏?
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Bhistory
9 楼
(Part 3) What does it take for My children to believe those words I’ve written in the Bible. Change is coming. Politically yes. But great changes are coming spiritually in the Body of Christ. So prepare to receive the glory I’m about to pour out. Evil must be expelled from the churches and darkness distinguished from My children – to receive the amounts of glory I’m about ready to release. So My children prepare your hearts and minds in My Word praising Me. Don’t limit what I want to do for you and what I want to do through you in this unprecedented time saith the Lord of Hosts. Amateur…this word will be in your news for a shocking political reason. Armageddon…this word will be used in a very unusual way. Apocalyptic…this word will be in your news for a significant reason. My children, your enemies will continue to use scare tactics in this time to try to gain control over your minds. REBUKE THE FEAR AND DENY THEIR POWER OVER YOU AND YOUR NATIONS. China is about to make a move against your election again, they will soon regret. What will strike their nation with judgment can only be explained with words biblical event and unprecedented judgment. This is coming for the ones trying to destroy My nations. What Boeing has been hiding will soon come out in the open and I will show you how your Establishment is involved in these sinister plots against you. Chariot…this company will be in your news for a shocking reason. Things are imploding your enemies can no longer hide. My children, prepare for the tensions that are growing against your enemies to cause an implosion they will never recover from. Their time is coming to an end in unprecedented way says the Lord Your Redeemer.
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dream_pillow
10 楼
按照老川的逻辑,如果胜选,必然作弊。
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Bhistory
11 楼
假选票,机器反转投票信息,曲线...大概率都会重现 无法影响结果,因为实际支持率悬殊,Trust the Lord! 还被许可的作弊,只是为了后续大面积的清理!the evil machine will be dismantled thoroughly, 川普警告过几次作弊会进监狱,这是计划中的标准动作 DS后续会有疯狂的动作,It is dying...
紐約雙子
12 楼
川普曲线,一定作弊啦!这是按川卫兵思路得出的必然结果。
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van1
13 楼
川普躺赢了,川粉可以歇歇了!
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Run4rest
14 楼
贺锦丽有什么成就?开放边境、支持罪犯、油价物价暴涨、世界到处都是战乱、美国在阿富汗撤军损失13位士兵和大量的武器装备。贺三笑被安排成总统候选人本身就是最大的丑闻。
拾麦客
15 楼
很多川普支持者拒绝回答民调问答,所以所谓民调就是个民主党的剃头挑子,谁信谁死。
相信事实
16 楼
谁都可以预测,反正不需要事实。这就是赌博开盘前大家押注,反正是有赢的有输的,如果你没有投注,那么最后开盘结果就无所谓啦,大家一乐而已。 现在下注吧
京工人
17 楼
只要共和党不大规模作弊,川普就不可能赢
令胡冲
18 楼
这是哄川普玩呢。当年希拉里民调领先比这多。
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Panda-2020
19 楼
DJT 股票已经大幅上涨了
猫二
20 楼
留言里怎么这么乱七八糟的
骂人不好
21 楼
哈哈哈,风水轮流转,轮到民主党“担心”作弊了? 看来共和党心心念念的查ID,原来为的是大规模舞弊。这脑回路可够清奇的。 加州查ID违法原来是防止共和党大规模舞弊,真是奇招。你说这共和党的支持者到底是拿着自己的ID怎么作弊的?黑川的奇人们能不能给个解释?
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TXZS
22 楼
嗯,那美国人民就有福了
回家路
23 楼
我家都选川普
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ca_lowhand
24 楼
要说怎么大选作弊小扎是最清楚了,但这家伙这次学聪明了早早投降
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Bhistory
25 楼
2020年11月6日,军方实际数据确认川当选。注意时任CIA局长Gina Haspel在CIA德国情报站参与实时操控大选,在几天后Delta force查抄服务器过程中被枪击,此后被收监,叛国罪。 川1月6日国会认证宣布拜当选后,川在1月20日前完成了国家紧急状态的一切手续,即国家受外部势力侵略,转入continuation of Government(COG), 军方接管国家。虽然军方监控数据确认川普当选。但川认为DS劫持媒体和民意,会鱼死网破,如果川坚持就职,DS会发动内战,民众不知情,国家会陷入内战。所以川选择第二套方案,即进入COG状态,权力交给军方。1月6日没有公开争总统大位。 军队的任务变成维持国家和平,同时取得窃国集团犯罪记录。注意拜登不就职,叛国罪还不成立,就职叛国罪就成立了。 注意拜登1月20日就职,没有坐Air Force 1,川普坐着去了海湖山庄。此后拜登也永远没有用到那两个AF1 AF2(尾号28000/29000), 这两家飞机目前停在Tampa,拜和Kamala此后一直用两架军机涂装的AF1 AF2。 川普在1月20日12点在安德鲁机场完成了就职仪式,然后AF1飞海湖山庄。 x*com/rattletrap1776/status/1666732515560751110 注意21响礼炮,AF1, 正午12点就职,是有很严格规定的,正午是宪法规定的哦 拜坐另一架飞机到DC,进入DC时车队沿途受到国民警卫队列队背对着的待遇,然后在11:47分宣誓,注意时间不对哦。就职后去阿灵顿公墓,受到20响军礼炮待遇,媒体放到这儿时,解释说有一发礼炮哑了...注意,军队背对着统帅,然后21响变20响,这是随意的么?22条军规,是无法这么对统帅的,除非高层安排...就职仪式是国家大典,哑了? x*com/rattletrap1776/status/1668033597809340416 注意就职仪式后,拜登没能进入白宫,守门的Marine礼貌而坚决拒绝...我不知道过了多久他才进入,有很长一段时间是在Georgia的亚特兰大的White house studio,就是拍摄用的白宫上班... x*com/l42022425/status/1808659431468441931 真正的椭圆办公室是2楼哦 -------------------------------------------------------- 你们支持的Joe, 并非原来那个美国副总统Joe 这个Joe有时需要坐Taxi: x*com/TheTrailerDan/status/1838368115534479549 下班自己走了: x*com/NotOpCue/status/1631909793832091648 原来那个Joe根本不知道他曾当选总统,几年来完全是新Joe的事: x*com/NotOpCue/status/1633226062283911170 x*com/NotOpCue/status/1821975083612844113 签名也不一样: x*com/NotOpCue/status/1664012131388338177 大家每天看到的是演员在DS录影棚的‘总统’大戏: x*com/PillarsStrategy/status/1836486117094199541/video/2 川普COG计划的核心目的是,暴露并清理DS。注意看这4年暴露多少司法系统,边境控制,军队内部(阿富汗撤退),FEMA,投票系统的隐藏的DS分支? 至今日,民众对上层被DS把控已经清楚了 2024年选举,还需要再暴露和清理一次 此后,川普将可以授权军方大规模逮捕和清理祸害美国的部分,4年里暴露的,和这次选举暴露的 最终,美国选举将是区块链+智能合约的形式,所有票数实时汇总在所有账本上,无法作弊,每个投票者可以实时查询自己的投票。 所以这次作弊是预期的,被监控的,有重大作用的。
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thatwillbenice
26 楼
愚人节的兴奋
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Bhistory
27 楼
美国军队效忠总统吗? 为了防止腐败强权政府,宪法设计的是,军队效忠宪法,所有军队的入列和提拔过程,均体现效忠宪法 国家机器其他职能部门也是效忠宪法 这造成COG后,绝大多数部队仍然认可川普,时至今日,除US Army,主要支持拜政权,其他Navy, Marine,大部Air Force,和空间军 Space Force,基本仍认川普。核按钮也不在拜政权手中。 过去4年,是史上最大的钓鱼执法,收集叛国集团证据的4年 It is about over, historical 4 years! God wins, not only in US, but in Europe! You will see. 提早投票!
闲聊几句
28 楼
让子弹再飞两周
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bingwood
29 楼
自由時報?呵呵????
起个破名想半天
30 楼
拜登就是一伪总统。
旁观者XWY
31 楼
现在川普可以承诺接受这次大选结果了吧。
骂人不好
32 楼
我的看法是这一次选举太过重要,如果摇摆州出现奇奇怪怪的事情,迟迟不能出结果,谁输了都不会认,起码不会立刻认。重新点票一遍又一遍是一定的。选举日之后几周都出不了结果都有可能。 如果出现那种情况,大家都系好安全带,备好食物和饮水,做好自卫的准备,保护好自己和家人,本土的和大量非法移民里面的不法分子趁火打劫的事,不得不防。
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lhy86
33 楼
加油!!!
无争
34 楼
宾州提前选举目前统计,Harris领先川普40%
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not4any
35 楼
谁都可以预测,预测的结果也可以五花八门,但最关键的是输了就要认输,无论是民主党输了还是共和党输了。无论是压倒性的选举结果,还是势均力敌的选举结果,都不要以作弊为理由拒绝认输。相信两百多年的选举程序是经得起考验的,绝大部分美国选民是有自己的辨别能力的,是不会被谣言左右的。
骂人不好
36 楼
投票日出不了结果,然后深更半夜出现稀奇古怪的事情,谁输了都不会干干脆脆认的。如果今年7个摇摆州半夜同时停止点票,出现川普曲线,哈里斯输了也一样不会痛痛快快地认,即使真的没有舞弊。
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not4any
37 楼
楼下“骂人不好”网友 你对美国的民主选举那么没信心吗?稍微一点小插曲就会改变大选结果,就会动摇民主的根基?你是不是太小看这个伟大的国家了?
骂人不好
38 楼
不是我有没有信心的事情,这仅仅是事实和人性而已。 输了要认是对的,但是是怎么输的,那是另外一回事。不要说哈里斯,换做是你,如果你看到一些可疑的事情,你也未必会痛痛快快地认输。
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not4any
39 楼
那你如何看待2000年大选,高尔向布什认输的这件事?那可是仅仅几百票的差距啊。一旦最高法院裁决,高尔立刻向布什认输。按照你的想法,高尔有一千一万个理由不服输啊。这里是一个法制的社会,不是人制的社会。你有疑问可以诉诸法律,可以上交你的证据,但你必须服从法律的裁决,不能按照自己的想象来判断事情的真伪,不能不服从法律,否则还要那么多法院干嘛?
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bl20120
40 楼
2021年川普指控选举舞弊60多件诉讼案无一件胜诉,响应指控的福斯新闻网还赔偿投票机器公司Dominion Voting Systems 7。8亿和解诉讼,可是上到川普万斯下到黄川粉们还是不相信,也许下面的网友“骂人不好”说的对,这是人性。
骂人不好
41 楼
戈尔和小布什那次完全不是一回事,不要搞混了。 那次并没有什么投票的疑问,争议不在于投票有没有舞弊,而是在于双方差距太小。几百票的差距自动触发重新点票,我记得有的票没有保护好,点票是有争议。 所以到了最高法院,最高法院接了,判了,那戈尔还怎么不服法?你给戈尔支一招? 2020的争议,首先说明我没有说有舞弊,而是支持万斯的解释,翻篇了,向前看。但是有很多人但是愿意出来实名作证,川普的团队准备了数百页的证据,但是最高法院没有接。如果最高法院接了,判了,如果有人还不服,那就会失去所有的支持者。
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futufutu
42 楼
可是上到川普万斯下到黄川粉们是相信的, otherwise why they come out to vote again?
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not4any
43 楼
楼下“骂人不好”网友, 请不要忘了高尔的诉求,高法接了,也判了,高尔也接受了。川普告到了高法,可怜的是,高法连接都没接,这说明了什么,我想你是聪明人,不需要我再跟你解释了吧?就按你的说法,高尔那次是点票有争议,而川普那次是涉嫌舞弊,如果真有其事,你说那件事更严重?难道点票误差比舞弊更严重?点票误差这点事高院倒判了,而比点票误差更严重的大选舞弊,高院却束之高阁不予审理?难道堂堂的最高法院会轻易地放过大选舞弊这种极其严重的破坏民主的行为?我想这怎么也说不通吧?你能自圆其说吗?
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not4any
44 楼
“翻篇了,向前看” 是川普和万斯不认输的理由吗?就可以回避正面回答四年前遗留的问题吗?多少人为万斯的这一回答喝彩,殊不知他这样的回答让人们更清醒更理智地看清了他翻手为云覆手为雨的政客伎俩。
骂人不好
45 楼
首先,你的评论是说输了就要认。我的观点是输了的确应该认,但是也不是说什么情况下都要认。我给你的问题是如果哈里斯看到7个摇摆州半夜突然都停止点票,然后出现怪异的曲线,还有成百上千的票站的义工爆出很多奇怪的事情。哈里斯如果输了,她会不会爽快地认输?换成你,你会不会爽快地认输? 2020最高法院没有接的原因是没有足够的大法官表态接,按照他们的规矩没有接。出于什么原因,并不清楚。比较普遍的说法是最高法院不应该接过度敏感的和政治有关的案件。3个大法官认为应该受理,最后是7:2表决不受理。我个人认为那是不对的。如果他们但是受理,判决,美国这四年很可能不是现在这个如此分裂的状况。 这件事情我能不能自圆其说不重要,因为无论我怎么说,你都不会同意。我的观点非常清楚。我是对事不对人的。民主党的边境政策,经济政策,对于亚裔的逆向歧视,身份政治,这些事让我不可能支持任何一个民主党的候选人。至于共和党,谁是共和党的候选人,我就支持谁,肤色,性别,年龄,性取向,通通没有关系,我投的谁政策和我和家人生活的国家的未来。
骂人不好
46 楼
政客都有“伎俩”,哈里斯,拜登,就没有伎俩? 人家说翻篇了,向前看,实际的意思就是我不想纠缠这件事情了,但是我依然存疑。这难道不是过去多少年两党政治能走下来的原因吗? 相互争斗又有所妥协。你可以不同意我,我也可以不同意你。但是两党可以合作,可以带领国家向前走。事情可以有不同的事情,道理是一样的。 川普现在是共和党的提名人,共和党的支持者多数自然支持他。如果当初选是黑利赢了,我就会支持黑利。我支持的是政策和理念。如果民主党的抹黑和官司让川普输掉了党内初选,我依然是共和党的支持者。 只要是投票日当天出结果,没有疑点或者微乎其微,没有人会不接受大选的结果,对吗? 既然民主党那么介意输了就要认,为什么不下功夫在认人输了就心服口服上?发ID,查ID,没有特殊原因不得邮寄投票,不用电子投票机,用纸质选票,人工点票,唱票,确认。为什么不能? 换了你,仅仅是假设,你在赌场上输了大钱,而有迹象赢你的人可能出千了,你会输的心服口服吗?