逆转!经济学人预测:川普以276张选举人票胜出

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《经济学人》自8月以来首次预测川普当选。(美联社)

距离美国总统大选仅剩2週,英国《经济学人》最新预测出现逆转,预估川普胜选机率为54%,川普将以276张选举人票击败贺锦丽的262张,重回美国总统职务,这是《经济学人》自8月以来,首次预测川普当选。

综合媒体报导,《经济学人》利用预测模型参考近来民调结果,以及美国每个州的经济状况、人口特徵和过去选举结果等来模拟,模型计算出川普胜选预估机率为54%,较过去一週飙升6个百分点,贺锦丽则仅剩下约45%,这是《经济学人》自8月以来,首次预测川普当选。

预测模型显示,在7个关键摇摆州中,川普可望夺下亚利桑那州、乔治亚州、北卡罗莱纳州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康辛州等5州,而贺锦丽则在密西根州和内华达州2个摇摆州,以51%、52%微弱优势领先。

全美538张选举人票中,《经济学人》模式预估,川普将以276张选举人票击败贺锦丽的262张;不过摇摆州中拥有最多19张选举人票的宾州,将成为选战关键,《经济学人》分析,如果贺锦丽在宾州输给川普,那她赢得总统大选的机会只有13%,而川普若丢掉宾州,胜率则只剩下10%。

y
yhr
1 楼
就怕深夜曲线再现。
秒秒
2 楼
那什么预言。什么卡通人物一个女总统产生那些信息怎么理解啊。
量子纠结
3 楼
现在民主党唯一的希望就是像2016年那样,民调出了大误差,左媒民调集体不知道出于什么动机要低估唱衰哈哈。
低智商猪头
4 楼
东西方预言都是哈里斯当选,两个白头翁一死一落空帝国残破日女王坐当中。哈哈
低智商猪头
5 楼
什么动机,催票呗,很多黑人吃福利却不积极参与投票,如若哈里斯落选,他们的福利将会缩水。
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Bhistory
6 楼
rumble. com/v5jnov9-live-with-julie.html?start=636 TENSIONS ARE GROWING IN THE ENEMY’S CAMP [Word heard – October 18, 2024] My children, tensions are growing in the enemy’s camp. Some will break under the pressure seeing they are losing and every day appears to be worse than the day before. Your enemies in Washington are petrified at what they are seeing with My David. He’s growing in strength and more people are turning to him. They know the deals he has made with some of their own party trying to save themselves. But there are deals on the table given to My David, even the Establishment doesn’t know about. Your leaders are unaware people have turned on them when it looks like in all in Washington they are still on your side. Sabotage is coming from your leaders in Washington against their own. I told you their puppets are failing to a degree they never thought possible. This is when your enemies will appear more dangerous with their actions they try against you and against this nation. Confusion is growing in Washington on what to do to stop this election because they realize they can’t cheat enough to win. Desperation is growing to a whole new level. AS their desperation continues to grow, so will their mistakes and mishaps along with their mouths being their worst enemies. Your leaders in Washington are about to do something they said they would never do. But this mighty be their only option. They are screaming to one another, IF HE GETS IN WE ARE DONE FOR. There is no option for him to get back into the White House. We will all be arrested or worse. What does he have? How can we find out? And are there other options to take him out and be successful? My children your enemies are having these conversations. They don’t know what to do with My David. The Establishment is about to let their wolves out of their cages to come after this nation. They want total anarchy and unrest. They wanted Civil War, anything where they can take emergency measures and proclaim Martial Law. They need more control so you can have less freedoms and be no threat to their machine from continuing to run this nation.
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Bhistory
7 楼
(Part 2) Your enemies are even questioning and contemplating about starting WW3 right now – to have a strike so devastating to this nation, not caring on how many lives are lost because they’d be safe in their positions and could stay in control. They would determine how much foreign enemies are allowed to do against you, even though there’s a good chance they may give the enemy too much leeway and it might go south quickly if not controlled. My children, this is a time - is very dangerous, a time to be when your enemies are realizing they are defeated and when they still choose not to wave that white flag. AS your enemies are losing strength and unity, My children I am giving you My strength and you will grow in unity despite the great divide your enemies have caused in My church. Great vindication is coming for My chosen voices that were being attacked and threatened to be silenced by the religious leaders. Those leaders will have a great wake-up call when they see that the truth that cannot be denied. Their doctrines and religious lies will not stand and they’ll be judged for choking My Word out of congregations with legalism and their opinions. A shaking is coming to those behind the pulpits who try to silence My prophets, who try to silence them on giving My Words and preparing the hearts of My people for battle. The world is and against this evil. Those who have been prideful and arrogant will themselves take a fall from where they have been. Pride comes before a fall and it also says in My Word touch not My anointed and do My prophets no harm. But some have chosen to ignore those words and went after those I have chosen to [try???] and disgrace them with repeated persecution and lies. Judgment is coming to those against My remnant. They had time to repent and chose to ignore those warnings. So My children you will see church leaders fall in disgrace. You have seen the unprecedented amount of CEO’s and Presidents of companies leave their positions and now you will see many in the churches do the same. A cleansing of My church has begun because this is a time of My glory being poured out and in order for the world to receive this amount, I must have the people in positions that are willing to receive it and believe - I am still capable of doing such moves of the Spirit, like I have spoken of in My Word. There are some in churches teaching that this has passed away and I no longer do these things. That is a lie because I am still the same yesterday, today and forever.
华伦久费
8 楼
哈里斯在内华达怎么可能有戏?
B
Bhistory
9 楼
(Part 3) What does it take for My children to believe those words I’ve written in the Bible. Change is coming. Politically yes. But great changes are coming spiritually in the Body of Christ. So prepare to receive the glory I’m about to pour out. Evil must be expelled from the churches and darkness distinguished from My children – to receive the amounts of glory I’m about ready to release. So My children prepare your hearts and minds in My Word praising Me. Don’t limit what I want to do for you and what I want to do through you in this unprecedented time saith the Lord of Hosts. Amateur…this word will be in your news for a shocking political reason. Armageddon…this word will be used in a very unusual way. Apocalyptic…this word will be in your news for a significant reason. My children, your enemies will continue to use scare tactics in this time to try to gain control over your minds. REBUKE THE FEAR AND DENY THEIR POWER OVER YOU AND YOUR NATIONS. China is about to make a move against your election again, they will soon regret. What will strike their nation with judgment can only be explained with words biblical event and unprecedented judgment. This is coming for the ones trying to destroy My nations. What Boeing has been hiding will soon come out in the open and I will show you how your Establishment is involved in these sinister plots against you. Chariot…this company will be in your news for a shocking reason. Things are imploding your enemies can no longer hide. My children, prepare for the tensions that are growing against your enemies to cause an implosion they will never recover from. Their time is coming to an end in unprecedented way says the Lord Your Redeemer.
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dream_pillow
10 楼
按照老川的逻辑,如果胜选,必然作弊。
B
Bhistory
11 楼
假选票,机器反转投票信息,曲线...大概率都会重现 无法影响结果,因为实际支持率悬殊,Trust the Lord! 还被许可的作弊,只是为了后续大面积的清理!the evil machine will be dismantled thoroughly, 川普警告过几次作弊会进监狱,这是计划中的标准动作 DS后续会有疯狂的动作,It is dying...
紐約雙子
12 楼
川普曲线,一定作弊啦!这是按川卫兵思路得出的必然结果。
v
van1
13 楼
川普躺赢了,川粉可以歇歇了!
R
Run4rest
14 楼
贺锦丽有什么成就?开放边境、支持罪犯、油价物价暴涨、世界到处都是战乱、美国在阿富汗撤军损失13位士兵和大量的武器装备。贺三笑被安排成总统候选人本身就是最大的丑闻。
拾麦客
15 楼
很多川普支持者拒绝回答民调问答,所以所谓民调就是个民主党的剃头挑子,谁信谁死。
相信事实
16 楼
谁都可以预测,反正不需要事实。这就是赌博开盘前大家押注,反正是有赢的有输的,如果你没有投注,那么最后开盘结果就无所谓啦,大家一乐而已。 现在下注吧
京工人
17 楼
只要共和党不大规模作弊,川普就不可能赢
令胡冲
18 楼
这是哄川普玩呢。当年希拉里民调领先比这多。
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Panda-2020
19 楼
DJT 股票已经大幅上涨了
猫二
20 楼
留言里怎么这么乱七八糟的
骂人不好
21 楼
哈哈哈,风水轮流转,轮到民主党“担心”作弊了? 看来共和党心心念念的查ID,原来为的是大规模舞弊。这脑回路可够清奇的。 加州查ID违法原来是防止共和党大规模舞弊,真是奇招。你说这共和党的支持者到底是拿着自己的ID怎么作弊的?黑川的奇人们能不能给个解释?