10 times more people likely infected with Covid-19 in the US, CD
10 times more people likely infected with Covid-19 in the US, CDC head says
From CNN Health’s Maggie Fox
Healthcare workers from University of South Florida (USF) Health administer coronavirus testing at the Lee Davis Community Resource Center in Tampa, Florida on June 25. Octavio Jones/Getty Images
The US has probably only counted about 10% of people infected with coronavirus, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Thursday.
The CDC has been looking at antibody tests done across the country to see how many people had past infections that were not diagnosed at the time, and sees many more cases than have been officially reported.
“A good rough estimate now is 10 to 1,” Redfield said in a media briefing.
With more than 2 million official diagnoses, that would mean more than 20 million Americans have been infected.
These numbers are in part because testing was at first limited to people who were very ill and showing up in hospitals or in nursing homes. Now, as more people are getting tested, it’s clear that a large percentage of people did not have any symptoms, or mild symptoms, Redfield said.
“The estimates that we have right now … is that's about 10 times more people have antibody,” Redfield said.
Redfield estimates that between 5% and 8% of Americans have been infected with coronavirus but said that will vary from region to region. New York, which had an intense epidemic, will have a higher percentage of people with past infections than some states in the West, for instance, he said.
But that means 90% or more of Americans have not been infected and are fully susceptible to the virus, he said.
CDC头头今天终于同意我几十天前给出的US疫情结论啦. 为什么我能马前炮对疫情数据分析得如此准确? LOL
CNBC的MEG TIRRELL刚报道CDC头头 Dr. Redfield 刚说美国新冠抗体人数是确认感染人数的10倍。听到新闻我暗中大喜,我一个多月前不是就算出来了并在本坛公布了嘛, 我一个半月前在本坛公布的结论是美国每确认一个新冠case,漏了9个case啦,CDC头头今天终于承认美国新冠抗体人数是确认感染人数的10倍. LOL
原文在此
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/health/911864.html
还有最近才引起各方重视的美国的新冠确认人数和测了多少人相关性非常大,美国实际感染人数由于测试不足而远远低估了。 我也早在2个多月前就在此批评本坛某个错误百出的COVID 19 模型时指出了这个问题了。
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/health/910069.html
关于REOPEN后的疫情SPIKE,我也早在大千讨论过了,回过来再看,又是马前炮。
BTW, REOPEN后VIRUS 重灾区, AZ, TX,REOPEN VIRUS 上升区, FL,SC
数据分析基本功好,所以可以比CDC等混饭吃的专家分析得还准确,不服也不行嘛,LOL
两者差异如此巨大,从科学角度看新冠抗体测试一定有问题。
武汉市有抗体测试,结果一直不敢公布,听说在4-10%,不敢公布抗体测试结果,怕被人说数据造假,.
武汉应该有至少60万人得过新冠有抗体了。 LOL
10 times more people likely infected with Covid-19 in the US, CDC head says
From CNN Health’s Maggie Fox
Healthcare workers from University of South Florida (USF) Health administer coronavirus testing at the Lee Davis Community Resource Center in Tampa, Florida on June 25. Octavio Jones/Getty ImagesThe US has probably only counted about 10% of people infected with coronavirus, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Thursday.
The CDC has been looking at antibody tests done across the country to see how many people had past infections that were not diagnosed at the time, and sees many more cases than have been officially reported.
“A good rough estimate now is 10 to 1,” Redfield said in a media briefing.With more than 2 million official diagnoses, that would mean more than 20 million Americans have been infected.
These numbers are in part because testing was at first limited to people who were very ill and showing up in hospitals or in nursing homes. Now, as more people are getting tested, it’s clear that a large percentage of people did not have any symptoms, or mild symptoms, Redfield said.
“The estimates that we have right now … is that's about 10 times more people have antibody,” Redfield said.
Redfield estimates that between 5% and 8% of Americans have been infected with coronavirus but said that will vary from region to region. New York, which had an intense epidemic, will have a higher percentage of people with past infections than some states in the West, for instance, he said.
But that means 90% or more of Americans have not been infected and are fully susceptible to the virus, he said.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-25-20-intl/index.html
你连我怎么算都不知道怎么能得出我用了美国数据来估算武汉得过新冠总人数嘛,乱弹琴 .
我只以中国数据来计算,和美国数据完全无关, WUHAN 60万人感染过COVID 19 只会低估啦,LOL
本玩家从来不用别人的理论计算结果,几乎所有的模型都算错了嘛。玩自己的算法才好玩嘛, LOL
一个家庭集会二十几人参加,其中一位二十岁年轻人有症状还是去了,结果传给十二人。
照你的理论,应该只有两三人得病。
如果已经有几百万上千万得过,早就在社区里,当然联邦政府用不着去抗疫了。
https://baike.baidu.com/reference/24313038/b1c0fc5Y6C8yYrE7qUd6nv0seHdXnqENUjKdTj7-k5gXsCJ4BsKvtnFdqUFZxcmpZFvGUHUzPx1EXipR-ogIT6UXNkbBAsDAObmBv497FEg
https://baike.baidu.com/reference/24313038/8610mwWlztky-7S2Wem8v4sQUio6GsF6UgteMO054cRJuGCjQ5ZlX_dNVinBOA6VTeejF_0_NZj-23U3GOENlG5QbCN862HjN2tmbWrs_uuz4y1UL-K-xEbnpk6MZtrDehXA
新型冠状病毒的诊断包括下面几个方面:第一、流行病学史;第二、临床表现;第三、胸部影像学的改变;第四、血液学改变。
流行病学史包含四条:第一条,就是在武汉或者周边地区,或者有病例报告的社区有接触史或旅游史;第二条,与新型冠状病毒感染者有密切接触史;第三条,有与来自武汉或者周边地区或病例报告社区的人的密切接触史,这些人有发热或呼吸道症状;第四条,有聚集性发病。
在疑似病例的基础上,进行荧光PCR检测新型冠状病毒核酸阳性,或者进行基因组测序,与新型冠状病毒高度同源,即为确诊患者
http://www.xinhuanet.com/health/2020-03/08/c_1125679677.htm
疑似病例只要具有肺炎影像学特征者,即为临床诊断病例,这就是说,疑似病例只要拍CT,有新冠肺炎肺部病变的特征,在没有核酸检测的情况下,就成为临床诊断病例。
http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/bmdt/ztzl/fkxxgzbdgrfyyq/fkdt/202002/t20200214_2027471.shtml
本玩家在讨论ANTIBODY啊, 不管有无症状得了就有ANTIBODY,你乱弹琴,牛头不对马嘴, LOL
人身上有各种抗体的。将别的抗体误作新冠抗体是抗体测试忽悠人的地方。
突然发现我是在对牛弹琴, 一个不懂现代生物测试,不懂抗体测试 的人,像小学生说梦话,, LOL
我们州的阳性检出率从20% 减到 5%, 我出门才不如临大敌。