Based on their guidance, they should be able to hit $185B revenue in 2025., with a growth margin of 73.5% (taking middle of H1 72% and H2 75%).
Nvidia is starting to control their expense. Their operating expense only grow 9% QoQ this quarter, and guided 10% for next quarter, this is lower than the 12% growth last quarter. This will help their EPS somewhat in 2025.
All together, the EPS is around $4.25 for 2025.
If we apply PE of 30, this translate to a stock price of 128. If we apply PE of 35, this translate to a stock price of 149. With a PE of 40, this would be 170
Dont think NVDA can support PE of 40 at this time as there are still uncertainty on Blackwell ramp up and the final margin. But any price closer to 128 should be a steal, and price over 150 could be a bit overvalued at this time.
NVDA can accelerate their revenue growth after next quarter when Blackwell is in full swing. Keep in mind that NVDA "only" guided 6% QoQ revenue increase from this Q to next Q. If this 7% were the normal growth rate, NVDA stock would be in big trouble, as that implies they can only do $175B in 2025, and with that revenue target, stock valuation would be cut by 15% from the ones I listed above.
So, if you do not believe NVDA can ramp up Blackwell and do $185B revenue in 2025, better wait until dust settles.
For me, I am in full confidence that they can deliver at least $185B
Based on their guidance, they should be able to hit $185B revenue in 2025., with a growth margin of 73.5% (taking middle of H1 72% and H2 75%).
Nvidia is starting to control their expense. Their operating expense only grow 9% QoQ this quarter, and guided 10% for next quarter, this is lower than the 12% growth last quarter. This will help their EPS somewhat in 2025.
All together, the EPS is around $4.25 for 2025.
If we apply PE of 30, this translate to a stock price of 128. If we apply PE of 35, this translate to a stock price of 149. With a PE of 40, this would be 170Dont think NVDA can support PE of 40 at this time as there are still uncertainty on Blackwell ramp up and the final margin. But any price closer to 128 should be a steal, and price over 150 could be a bit overvalued at this time.
NVDA can accelerate their revenue growth after next quarter when Blackwell is in full swing. Keep in mind that NVDA "only" guided 6% QoQ revenue increase from this Q to next Q. If this 7% were the normal growth rate, NVDA stock would be in big trouble, as that implies they can only do $175B in 2025, and with that revenue target, stock valuation would be cut by 15% from the ones I listed above.
So, if you do not believe NVDA can ramp up Blackwell and do $185B revenue in 2025, better wait until dust settles.
For me, I am in full confidence that they can deliver at least $185B
looks like it's hard to overcome. tsmc cannot increase their capacity fast enough?
Judging by afterhour price action, big investors are not worried about this at all.
this can be fixed, there will be huge upside.
manner. I just finished listening to the conference.
I shared my model before. As soon as I hear CFO giving 2025 gross margin update, the stock price target is updated, lol
Will this translate to 2x Blackwell shipment for NVDA in 2025? Hopefully!
蓝色数据是英伟达今天公布的，剩下的是模型计算出来的
happy about my model. :)
is 411, not 600. so now I got 0.81, and I think if you update yours you will get 0.81 as well. :)
updating operating expenses, assuming 10% growth Q over Q sequentially. If assigning 35 P/E, price target $148.85.
and 10% for subsequent quarters, and growth margin of 73.5%.