1: 假设TSLA只是一家EV公司。The purpose here is to come up with a baseline value estimate. 也就是说，如果TSLA股价掉到这里，那它将是被大大低估。The basic assumptions here
a: TSLA will grow its EV and energe sales by 22-25% per year until 2029 for a total of 5million cars in 2029. This is a much lower target than the 20M cars Tsla once promised. Also, the global car sales is expected to reach 90M by 2029, so I think 5M cars is a very conservative estimate
b: TSLA can continue to grow its gross margin and operating margin. One reason TSLA has gone up 30% after last earning report is that its gross margin has improved significantly and people believe TSLA can continue improve it. 这个假设需要在未来的2-4个季度里去不断的验证。
a: It is very hard to estimate the RoboTaxi business potential, Here I just throw some rough estimate. But looking at the final number, it suggest somewhere around $12B RoboTaxi revenue for Tsla in 2029. I think this number is "conservative", considering Uber+lyft alone is expected to generate close to $100B revenue from ride sharing by 2029.
b; I did put a much high operating margin for RoboTaxi, starting from 50% and grow to 75%, given this is a software business. This is still lower than optimistic wall street estimate of 80%. But i think this number is a bit high. However, since my revenue estimate is very conservative, hopefully, these 2 cancel each other.
What happened after 2029, well, Optimus will be the next growth stimulus that provides another 2x-5x value creation. That one is so far fetched so I decide not to estimate it.
If long bond yield goes significantly higher than 5%, stock market will crash as well. For this reason, even though we may not be able to catch the absolute bottom in long bond, but if the yield keeps going up, it is probably safer to hold some asset in long bond than holding in stocks
Yeah, EV only PE could be at risk if TSAL growth slow
But EV+RoboTaxi PE will be at least 50 in 2029 if TSLA can grow at the level described here, because I think TSLA's actual performance will be higher than this if RoboTaxi rollout is successful and 2029 and beyond should see accelerated growth.
Wall street would give such company at least PEG of 1.25 (if you are not familiar with PEG concept, you can ask ChatGPT)
I remember your model assumes about 52% growth, while mine
assumes 58% for the next 3-5 years for NVDA. Otherwise, NVDA shouldn't be at current price, should be much lower, if their growth after 2025 is only 17%.
TSLA这家公司风险很大，但回报也有很大空间。关健就是它能否实现自动驾驶和人型机机器人的长远目标。投资TSLA必须基于这个信仰，否则最好别长持。
这里分享一下TSLA 的估值模型。对与TSLA这样的成长型公司，我们不能仅仅简单的用明年的PE来估值。在这里，我用了DCF（discount cash flow)来估算。如果你对DCF不熟悉，可以问chatGPT. 其它的方法比如说用EBITDA会比较激进。我不用EBITDA是想尽量保守一点，同时对TSLA 未来的营业也尽量把目标放低一点
我把它分成2部份
1: 假设TSLA只是一家EV公司。The purpose here is to come up with a baseline value estimate. 也就是说，如果TSLA股价掉到这里，那它将是被大大低估。The basic assumptions here
a: TSLA will grow its EV and energe sales by 22-25% per year until 2029 for a total of 5million cars in 2029. This is a much lower target than the 20M cars Tsla once promised. Also, the global car sales is expected to reach 90M by 2029, so I think 5M cars is a very conservative estimate
b: TSLA can continue to grow its gross margin and operating margin. One reason TSLA has gone up 30% after last earning report is that its gross margin has improved significantly and people believe TSLA can continue improve it. 这个假设需要在未来的2-4个季度里去不断的验证。
c: 根据这些假设，TSLA 2029 年的EPS大概是$10 per share, 5 年EPS 平均增速32%。我们可以保守的给它PE32 （也就是说 PEG= 1），如此下来 TSLA股价大概在2029会达到 $320
2: 第二部份我们把RoboTaxi的业务加上。
a: It is very hard to estimate the RoboTaxi business potential, Here I just throw some rough estimate. But looking at the final number, it suggest somewhere around $12B RoboTaxi revenue for Tsla in 2029. I think this number is "conservative", considering Uber+lyft alone is expected to generate close to $100B revenue from ride sharing by 2029.
b; I did put a much high operating margin for RoboTaxi, starting from 50% and grow to 75%, given this is a software business. This is still lower than optimistic wall street estimate of 80%. But i think this number is a bit high. However, since my revenue estimate is very conservative, hopefully, these 2 cancel each other.
c: 真正的RoboTaxi商业模式其实都在瞎猜。但我觉得，如果TSLA在2029年连Uber+lyft的1/10都做不到，那这个业务也不会有前途的。
d: 如果我们把RoboTaxi这部份加上去，TSLA在2029年的EPS大概是$13 per share, 5 年EPS 平均增速40%。基于这个假设，我把它的PE设在50 （PEG = 1.25）。如此下来 TSLA股价大概在2029会达到 $650
终和起来，TSLA股价大概在2029 最保守估价$320，但很有可能达到 $650。利用DCF model，我们假设discount rate 是15%，这样的话TSLA在2024年的价值应该在$160 到 $320 区间。$160 就是你不太相信TSLA会在RoboTaxi 上成功。$320 则是你相信在2029年TSLA能够打造出一定规模的RoboTaxi 业务。
What happened after 2029, well, Optimus will be the next growth stimulus that provides another 2x-5x value creation. That one is so far fetched so I decide not to estimate it.
If long bond yield goes significantly higher than 5%, stock market will crash as well. For this reason, even though we may not be able to catch the absolute bottom in long bond, but if the yield keeps going up, it is probably safer to hold some asset in long bond than holding in stocks
as you are assuming 2025-2029 growth rate will continue in the future, unless you do think so.
But EV+RoboTaxi PE will be at least 50 in 2029 if TSLA can grow at the level described here, because I think TSLA's actual performance will be higher than this if RoboTaxi rollout is successful and 2029 and beyond should see accelerated growth.
Wall street would give such company at least PEG of 1.25 (if you are not familiar with PEG concept, you can ask ChatGPT)
but look at NVDA, even with such growth, the PE is only in the 30s. I am being a bit cautious for TSLA.
The estimated earning EPS growth is only 17% after after 2025, and then 7% after 2026
assumes 58% for the next 3-5 years for NVDA. Otherwise, NVDA shouldn't be at current price, should be much lower, if their growth after 2025 is only 17%.