今天买了MSFT430-405 Put spread 来hedge 长仓

三心三意
楼主 (文学城)

Earning this week is very impotant for MSFT as its stock has highest premium built in

三心三意
Goog priced to only meet estimate, MSFT/META priced to beat
a
aloevera
你是买的这个星期到期的?我也去看看。
三心三意
This Friday
a
aloevera
还是作罢了。Earnings太难猜了,上次TSLA猜错这次不敢猜了。
英勇不屈张排长
有吗?软的CALL这么便宜,基本是地板价。
三心三意
Yeah. Mine is hedge my long position. No need to bet on new
一条大河波浪宽
Earning surprise up or down 5%, I opened bull put spread

405/385 for 1.85, worst scenario I can convert to long holding

三心三意
Here is what I am worrying about MSFT

Looking at its TA, MSFT clearly completed a 5 wave uptrend from May of 2023 all the way to July of 2024.

Originally, I was hoping MSFT would complete its correction move by 8/5, just like rest of Tech such as QQQ, NVDA, SP500 and start a new uptrend. However, the way its chart is developing starts to present a possiblity for MSFT to go a lot lower to complete a major ABC move.

This makes the earning this week very important, MSFT need to a: beat the earning estimate and b: provide a higher guidance. If MSFT is not able to do this, stock will turn south from here. That means we could see a small 5 wave (as shown in green 12345 on the chart) to complete the C wave.

Of course, if MSFT is able to beat estimate and guide higher, stock moves higher and this will invalidate the C wave. That will tell us 8/5 is indeed the completion of correction phase, and we should expect MSFT to go back to ATH.

So, earning this week very critical.

三心三意
Not option premium, but stock price itself
a
aloevera
这图看着有点可怕啊,看样子明天还是要hedge一下妥当些。
三心三意
Only if MSFT stock turn south here. Otherwise, we are ok
a
aloevera
都想把他转成 META了,就是交税让人却步。今年不小心被call过一部分,然后46买的NVDA也被震出来过,

今年已经要交不少税了。Pray他不会爆雷。