1: As mentioned on Tuesday, QQQ broke out of the tri-angle on the downside. So, this confirmed the scenario 2 I mentioned in last weekend's update. This is an indication that QQQ is likely in wave C of the correction phase. So far, it matches the pattern of wave A and wave B of Elliot wave theory pretty well.
wave A drawdown is almost 100% of wave 5. wave B is at exact 78.6% Fib level of wave A See chart 1 below
2: Wave C in Elliot theory could have two drawdowns, 61.8% and 100% (the theory also has more severe drawdown possiblity but too far away from here), which we will need to watch closely next wek
For 61.8% drawdown of wave A, wave C would take QQQ to 437. This area is very close to EMA200 (440). QQQ also has its 1Y volume profile point of control at 438. So the chance of seeing QQQ bounce around 440+/- area is quite good. We will need strong bounce (1.5% to 2% QQQ daily candle) as well as QQQ staying above this level for at least 2 days to confirm the end of wave C. A weak bounce does not confirm the ending of wave C For 100% drawdown of wave A, wave C would take QQQ to 400-404 level. This is also the 20% correction of QQQ from ATH. Clearly, this is a critical point. Dropping below this level means QQQ offically enters into bear market. Rally strong up from this level means the end of this correction phase. I have marked both (61.8% and 100%) on the 2nd chart below
3: Finally, just to repeat the key point from last weekend.
更新一下QQQ的情况。
1: As mentioned on Tuesday, QQQ broke out of the tri-angle on the downside. So, this confirmed the scenario 2 I mentioned in last weekend's update. This is an indication that QQQ is likely in wave C of the correction phase. So far, it matches the pattern of wave A and wave B of Elliot wave theory pretty well.
wave A drawdown is almost 100% of wave 5. wave B is at exact 78.6% Fib level of wave A See chart 1 below2: Wave C in Elliot theory could have two drawdowns, 61.8% and 100% (the theory also has more severe drawdown possiblity but too far away from here), which we will need to watch closely next wek
For 61.8% drawdown of wave A, wave C would take QQQ to 437. This area is very close to EMA200 (440). QQQ also has its 1Y volume profile point of control at 438. So the chance of seeing QQQ bounce around 440+/- area is quite good. We will need strong bounce (1.5% to 2% QQQ daily candle) as well as QQQ staying above this level for at least 2 days to confirm the end of wave C. A weak bounce does not confirm the ending of wave C For 100% drawdown of wave A, wave C would take QQQ to 400-404 level. This is also the 20% correction of QQQ from ATH. Clearly, this is a critical point. Dropping below this level means QQQ offically enters into bear market. Rally strong up from this level means the end of this correction phase. I have marked both (61.8% and 100%) on the 2nd chart below3: Finally, just to repeat the key point from last weekend.
".... 简单来说，就是科技股单边上涨，买什么都赚的情型已经过去了。下面几个月的布局非常重要。AI仍然是重要推力，但闭着眼睛买任何半导体的投资不会再有上半年那样的回报. 具体买什么股票因人而异，但投资人对企业的投资回报率的要求有了明显的提高。 这种型势下更应该偏持行业的绝对龙头股，远离一切概念炒作股。同时尽可能调仓进指数，减仓个股。最后要考虑科技股以外的行业，比如说能源，房地产，军工等"
It could stop at 61.8% (there are many more TA singals showing bounce on Monday or Tuesday, but I just focus on some key points here).
At the same time, we should always have a preparation on other possiblities