I posted QQQ's situation last week. QQQ has been range bound within the tri-angle between the uptrend line (紫色线）and downtrend line (绿色）。 See old post here : https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/6498581.html?
There are two possible scenarios that could play out in Sept
Scenario 1 (represented in 紫色虚线）: QQQ breaks the downtrend line and goes higher。I suspect in this scenario QQQ could meet resistence at its previous ATH and come back to retest the solid purple line, but as long as QQQ stays above the solid purple line, it will keep the uptrend
Scenario 2 (represented in 绿色虚线）：QQQ breaks the uptrend line and goes lower (note that this area also has EMA50 support line). In this case, I suspect QQQ will first find support at 50% Fibanacci retractment (around 450). It may bounce back from there to touch green downtrend line, but eventually, we could see QQQ retest EMA200. ?I dont think there is enough econmoic data at this point to push QQQ below EMA200. We will have to see the how economy plays out in coming weeks and months to make that determintion
Finally, until QQQ breaks either green or purple line, it just means a continuation of range bound trading we will just have to wait patiently for the price action to take place
想谈谈我对美国股市下一步的看法 ， 先从基本面简单说几句
1: 美股现在大势仍然向上。目前并没有明显的数据说明牛市已结束。大体来说通涨有好转+经济虽然有缓慢迹象但没有指标证明衰退+联储降息在即。这并不是说一切都万事大吉，但至少现在就说股市要由牛转熊就是纯粹猜想。 这里我还要特别指出几个熊熊误导的数据
联储降息后股市历史上都会跌: 这是典型的本末倒置。经济不好联储降息股市当然会跌，但降息不是因，而是果。事实上，历史上有很多次联储降息但股市上涨的例子。比如说1995-1996 联储降息三次， 又或者1998， 联储也降息三次。 股市在这两次中都是大牛市不变。
巴非特指数创历史最高：巴菲特指数是把股市总价值除以美国GDP。这个指数只可能越来越高。因为美股年增长率平均是6 ％－8%，而GDP只有2% －3 %。所以长时间看这个指数总是越来越高。单边看这个指数没有任何意义
现在市场SP500 PE已经快30非常高：其实在官方数据上(WSJ, Barrons, Morningstar), SP500 前瞻PE仅有20出一点头
流入money market的现金数每个星期都在创新高：事实是，从官方权威ICI网站数据，MMF的现金从8/ 5到8月底，每个星期的现金流入数量都在减少
美国衰落论包括美元美债和美国霸权地位：我只能说，对任何这样的言论我都会把他／她拉入黑名单。志不同而不为谋。唱哀美国的尽可以做空美股，我不会和这群人浪费我的时间
2: 虽然牛市趋势不变，我觉得目前股市震荡行情为主。在机构没有明确出牌之前，最好不要单边压注甚至上杠杆。目前以防守姿态可能是最稳当的策略。我们需要让市场走出它的下一步，而不是盲目的单边看涨或看跌. 现在重点已经从“通涨和利率”主导的市场变为“经济和企业赢利”主导的市场。 所以下面两个月的经济数据将会至关重要
3: 第三点可能是最重的。简单来说，就是科技股单边上涨，买什么都赚的情型已经过去了。下面几个月的布局非常重要。AI仍然是重要推力，但闭着眼睛买任何半导体的投资不会再有上半年那样的回报. 具体买什么股票因人而异，但投资人对企业的投资回报率的要求有了明显的提高。 这种型势下更应该偏持行业的绝对龙头股，远离一切概念炒作股。同时尽可能调仓进指数，减仓个股。最后要考虑科技股以外的行业，比如说能源，房地产，军工等
下面看看QQQ的技术面
I posted QQQ's situation last week. QQQ has been range bound within the tri-angle between the uptrend line (紫色线）and downtrend line (绿色）。 See old post here : https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/6498581.html?
There are two possible scenarios that could play out in Sept
Scenario 1 (represented in 紫色虚线）: QQQ breaks the downtrend line and goes higher。I suspect in this scenario QQQ could meet resistence at its previous ATH and come back to retest the solid purple line, but as long as QQQ stays above the solid purple line, it will keep the uptrend
Scenario 2 (represented in 绿色虚线）：QQQ breaks the uptrend line and goes lower (note that this area also has EMA50 support line). In this case, I suspect QQQ will first find support at 50% Fibanacci retractment (around 450). It may bounce back from there to touch green downtrend line, but eventually, we could see QQQ retest EMA200. ?I dont think there is enough econmoic data at this point to push QQQ below EMA200. We will have to see the how economy plays out in coming weeks and months to make that determintion
Finally, until QQQ breaks either green or purple line, it just means a continuation of range bound trading we will just have to wait patiently for the price action to take place
a high ground.