看一看花姐专业的英伟达前景模型预测

Ignore the outliers…

Bear case: assume only 7% YoY revenue growth in 2025 (2% per quarter)

Base Case1 : Assume 45% YoY (10% per quarter) revenue growth in 2025

This model also assume gross margin will come down to low 70% in 2025

based on this, the absolute floor for NVDA would be 90s (which is already unlikely as this assumes they only grow revenue by 2% quarter over quarter)

130s would be safe bet given AI industry’s current progression

More likely NVDA will go above 130s

This model is for 2025 so NVDA will have to show it can hit one of these trajectory in its next earning report to hit 130s

 

You dont need to believe, but can use it build your own

Using this model, I calculated NVDA's price to be 105

Assume they only grow revenue by 7% quarter over quarter, for a 30% YoY growth, and growth margin drops down to 70%, and PE only 28.

I consider this as absolute worst case, and if NVDA drops below 105, will sell my REIT and buy more

 

按照英伟达自己的财报，未来至少一个可能两个季度，很难有那种爆发式增长。而现在的股价已经完全price了2015的增长。

所以，客观的说，如果AI芯片的需求继续保持的情况下，

英伟达的业绩还会稳健增长，但是股价短期内见顶了，大概是至少3-6个月的时间框架。

NVDA's fastest growth period is behind it

这和苹果，奈飞初期差不多。后面就是cash flow, return to investors, buy backs, dividends, services around the core.

目前需要时间消化今年150%+的回报。150%+ 哈哈。让人羡慕嫉妒恨啊。

NVDA 2024年横盘8个月。然后于2024再上层楼。 我预计它会再100-130之间横盘N个月直到Blackwell芯片运出。这个季报最重要的作用是让整个科技股板块松一口气。

 

Agree. I am only estimating 10% QoQ growth with Blackwell.

女大的问题是 股价140 市值等同 aapl，大多数投资者无法接受

多谢分享。