看楼下的帖子,好像日车厂为了用户安全,故意使用软钢吸能

日理万机
楼主 (文学城)

活菩萨啊!

b
basicenglish
2 楼
全球30多汽车制造商都用了神户钢铝,包括GM FORD,

可从车祸死亡数据看,丰田安全明显好过美系,咋回事呢?

X
XYZ3
3 楼
toyota used far more than others

4.35% of kobe Steel 's products go to Toyota.

No other companies used more than 1.65%

b
basicenglish
4 楼
从车祸死亡数据看,丰田安全明显好过美系,所以是软钢的原因?
日理万机
5 楼
楼下的那个表么?基本上没有统计意义
b
basicenglish
6 楼
就安全性来说假如在实际车祸里是死是活没有统计意义,你能拿出个更有统计意义的吗?
日理万机
7 楼
你那数字反应的根本不是“实际车祸里是死是活”,不要偷梁换柱。广是本田就隐瞒了大量死亡数据

而且统计方法很有问题,里面猫腻大呢。

b
basicenglish
8 楼
你从哪里看出不是实际车祸死亡而是虚构的?

"IIHS researchers compute the rate at which drivers of individual models are killed in crashes."   Driver death rates by make and model

One way to compare the relative safety of vehicles is to look at driver death rates. From time to time, IIHS researchers compute the rate at which drivers of individual models are killed in crashes. Rates are given as the number of driver deaths per million registered vehicle years. (A registered vehicle year is one vehicle registered for one year.) To increase the exposure and thereby improve the accuracy of the calculations, results are included for the previous three model years if the vehicle wasn't substantially redesigned during that time. These calculations take into account only deaths of drivers, not passengers, since every vehicle that crashes has a driver, but not every vehicle has passengers.

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QuantPM
9 楼
本来车祸死亡就是小概率事件,再细分,样本太小,误差太大,所以叫没有统计意义。你显然误解成“是不是件有意义的事”了。

要想理解“统计意义”,请学学null hypothesis,p value。NHTSA没有公布这些,学术上就叫没有统计意义。
b
basicenglish
10 楼
你说“本田隐瞒了大量死亡数据”,有证据吗?
b
basicenglish
11 楼
0 death vs. 104 death per million. 你说这个没有统计意义?

买车考虑安全性不看实际车祸死亡的数据,看什么?听一家之言么?

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iGarage
12 楼
你讲的这些也许对的,但你有“有意义”的数据去辨倒那些“无意义”的数据吗?或证明你的“正确”的阐述?
日理万机
13 楼
“本田因隐瞒伤亡事件在美遭罚7000万美元”

本田因隐瞒伤亡事件在美遭罚7000万美元
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QuantPM
14 楼
已经说过,理性安全选择:先筛出最重的,排去不相关的数据(单车撞墙,但车翻),看重要的(被动被撞测试结果),然后决定怎样安全开车。

算法都给出来了。至于是不是“正确”,请参考博弈论对MINIMAX策略的阐述、分析。
 

b
basicenglish
15 楼
FARS网站上说车祸死亡统计数字的来源有这么多,

就没提厂家自报

FARS data are obtained solely from the state's existing documents:

Police accident reports State vehicle registration files State driver licensing files State highway department data Vital statistics Death certificates Coroner/medical examiner reports Hospital medical reports Emergency medical service reports Other state records   The following facts are based on analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Transportation's Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS).   Fatality Analysis Reporting System

Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), which became operational in 1975, contains data on a census of fatal traffic crashes within the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. To be included in FARS, a crash must involve a motor vehicle traveling on a trafficway customarily open to the public, and must result in the death of an occupant of a vehicle or a nonmotorist within 30 days of the crash.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has a cooperative agreement with an agency in each state's government to provide information on all qualifying fatal crashes in the state. These agreements are managed by Regional Contracting Officer's Technical Representatives located in the 10 NHTSA Regional Offices. Trained state employees, called "FARS Analysts," are responsible for gathering, translating, and transmitting their state's data to National Center for Statistics and Analysis (NCSA) in a standard format. The number of analysts varies by state, depending on the number of fatal crashes and the ease of obtaining data.

FARS data are obtained solely from the state's existing documents:

Police accident reports State vehicle registration files State driver licensing files State highway department data Vital statistics Death certificates Coroner/medical examiner reports Hospital medical reports Emergency medical service reports Other state records

From these documents, the analysts code more than 100 FARS data elements. The specific data elements may be modified slightly each year to conform to changing user needs, vehicle characteristics, and highway safety emphasis areas. The data collected within FARS do not include any personal identifying information, such as names, addresses, or social security numbers. Thus, any data kept in FARS files and made available to the public fully conform to the Privacy Act.

Each analyst enters data into a local microcomputer data file, and daily updates are sent to NHTSA's central computer database. Data are automatically checked when entered for acceptable range values and for consistency, enabling the analyst to make corrections immediately. Several programs continually monitor and improve the completeness and accuracy of the data. The FARS data file used for the statistics in this report was created in July; however, this FARS file will officially close when next year's data are released. This additional time provides the opportunity for submission of important variable data requiring outside sources, which may lead to changes in the final counts. The updated final counts for this year will be reflected in next year's report.1

1National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Traffic safety facts: A compilation of motor vehicle crash data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System and the General Estimates System. Available at http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Cats/listpublications.aspx?Id=E&ShowBy=DocType.

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needtime
16 楼
单车死亡属于自做自受,危险开车造成的吧。 多车事故倒是一个很好的参数。

很有意思,日本和德国都是自己的车子很少有外国车。死亡率都没有美国高。

日本和德国比, 考虑百万人口拥车数,人口密度以及行车密度后, 没啥好坏差别,很近似。

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PrimeryColor
17 楼
你老太忙, 误解了吧。车祸死亡统计不由车厂报吧。估计隐瞒的是死亡和车瑕疵的关系吧。
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QuantPM
18 楼
两个统计变量的差是个概率分布,是正的还是负的,不是看一次样本平均就能判断出来的,要看分布的方差。

不给出方差、p值等细节数据的报告是不能随便做减法比较大小的。
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XYZ3
19 楼
单车死亡也是有一定的价值的

一个比较舒适, 操控性比较好的车, 卷入单车死亡的概率就会低。

像Dodge Challenger, 就是个赛车, 或者司机认为它是个赛车, 把它当赛车那样去开, 单车事故率就会高许多。

不同的司机对车要求也不同。 我在高速上特受不了路噪音。 马上会昏昏欲睡。 所以开像RAV4, CRV那种车我是不敢上高速的。

日理万机
20 楼
"State highway department data", "Other state records" 等等这些数据会因厂

洗涤真是不遗余力啊

b
basicenglish
21 楼
美国交通部帮日车洗地,你没病吧

日理万机
22 楼
你能得出这个结论,你有病!
日理万机
23 楼
说到病根就原形毕露了,呵呵