这是典型的有好设想没有think it through 而导致失败的案例, 最终走廉价的路线是因为资金的短缺, 如果项目在上马之前先解决电池问题的话, it will be a different story.
今天某投资咨询公司的评论如下：
Longtime readers know we aren't fond of Tesla and its 'visionary' founder Elon Musk...
As we've explained many times, it's not that we have a problem with the electric carmaker's products. Rather, it's Musk's questionable ethics, and the fact that it's simply a terrible business.
Tesla (TSLA) has missed virtually every manufacturing deadline and sales target it has ever set. It loses money on every car it sells, despite forcing taxpayers to subsidize a huge portion of the cost. It has burned through nearly $10 billion since 2012... holds another $10 billion in debt... and has never turned a profit. And yet, somehow, we're supposed to believe the company is worth more than $56 billion today.
Of course, you've likely heard all this before. But if you thought Tesla had problems now, just wait... A virtual tsunami of new competition is coming soon. As Bloomberg reported yesterday...
In North America alone, the number of electric vehicles [EVs] will soar to 47 by the first quarter of 2022 from 24 in the third quarter of this year, according to data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. China's EV market will go to 80 from 61, and European buyers will have 58 electric choices, up from 31. Globally, there will be 136 EVs on the market by the end of that year, and that doesn't even include the hybrid models or fuel cells.
That will make for a very crowded field in a nascent zero-emission car market that most consumers have yet to embrace and where financial losses loom large. In the U.S., electric car sales were less than 1% of the market last year, according to the International Energy Agency. They were 1.4% in China and in the U.K.
"Companies are committed to electric cars, but there is little evidence that there is a lot of consumer demand for it," said Kevin Tynan, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.
Economics 101 tells us surging supply combined with tepid demand is a recipe for lower prices. This isn't great news for any electric carmaker, but it's especially bad for Tesla. The company's already large losses could grow even bigger as competition ramps up.
Worse, more competitors are now targeting the luxury segment of the market where Tesla largely operates. More from Bloomberg...
Volkswagen's Audi brand will start building the E-tron Quattro, a luxury SUV, in 2018, followed by the Sportback coupe in 2019 and a third, unnamed vehicle by 2020.
Porsche will sell a production version of its Mission E sports sedan concept car starting in 2019.
In addition to BMW's current electric i3 compact and i8 sports car, the German automaker will have an electric Mini in 2019, an X3 compact SUV in 2020 and 10 others by 2025, Chairman Harald Krueger said in a speech in September.
Daimler's Mercedes-Benz brand plans 10 battery-powered vehicles in its EQ sub-brand through 2022, while Volvo Car, which is owned by China's Geely Automobile, has said any new models launched in 2019 or later will be offered only as hybrid, plug-in hybrid or all-electric versions.
If the company can't make money with practically no competition today, what hope will it have when the competition really gets going?
In the meantime, Tesla continues to fall short of Musk's lofty goals...
When the company launched its new, lower-cost Model 3 sedan in July, Musk promised the company would ramp up production quickly.
He said it would produce 100 units in August, 1,500 in September, and a huge 20,000 per month by December. From there, Musk said production would really take off... He said the company plans to make 500,000 Model 3s in 2018, and 1 million in 2020.
So how is his big plan coming along? As Bloomberg reported yesterday (emphasis added)...
The automaker built only 260 Model 3s during the quarter ended in September, less than a fifth of its 1,500-unit forecast. Output of the sedan that starts at $35,000 – roughly half the cost of the least expensive Model S – was lower than expected because of unspecified "bottlenecks," according to the company.
Musk has engendered enthusiasm about the future of electric cars and has automakers including Volkswagen, General Motors, and Daimler lining up to compete.
But what Tesla hasn't done is prove itself as a mass manufacturer. The slow start for Model 3, which was designed for easier assembly, reignites concern that the company will struggle to reach the lofty production targets set by its CEO.
You'd be a fool to believe Tesla will produce 1 million Model 3s per year anytime soon...
According to Karl Brauer, executive publisher for Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader, that ramp-up rate is unprecedented among experienced, high-volume automakers. (Tesla is neither.)
But Musk couldn't even meet the first of these projections. Worse, Tesla produced just 25,336 total vehicles across all its models last quarter. This is less than it produced in the three months ending in June.
In other words, Tesla is actually producing fewer cars just as it has promised to begin making exponentially more.
Maybe Musk is on to something... After all, when you're losing money on every vehicle you produce, making fewer cars doesn't sound so bad.
手上有TESLA股票的请快抛。
待会儿回复。
量产没有经验
去年9月6日我在这里指出Tesla的问题所在及Musk所面临的挑战，今天看到某投资咨询公司对该公司业绩的评价，和我去年的观点一致，手上有此股票的建议快抛。
Tesla 的问题在于 来源: 加州阳光123 于 2016-09-06 10:36:18 [档案] [博客] [转至博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读： 34 次 (590 bytes) 字体：调大/重置/调小 | 加入书签 | 打印 | 所有跟帖 | 加跟贴 | 当前最热讨论主题有 innovative idea, 但没有对此项目真正的深思熟虑, 出来的产品最大的缺陷在于电池问题, 只能开从三藩到LA的距离, 这个问题不解决这个产品就不能scalable, 这也是Elon Musk最头疼疲于解决的问题。现在推出廉价Tesla, 目的在于迅速回笼资金, 第三季销售再不达标的话, game over.
这是典型的有好设想没有think it through 而导致失败的案例, 最终走廉价的路线是因为资金的短缺, 如果项目在上马之前先解决电池问题的话, it will be a different story.
今天某投资咨询公司的评论如下：
Longtime readers know we aren't fond of Tesla and its 'visionary' founder Elon Musk...
As we've explained many times, it's not that we have a problem with the electric carmaker's products. Rather, it's Musk's questionable ethics, and the fact that it's simply a terrible business.
Tesla (TSLA) has missed virtually every manufacturing deadline and sales target it has ever set. It loses money on every car it sells, despite forcing taxpayers to subsidize a huge portion of the cost. It has burned through nearly $10 billion since 2012... holds another $10 billion in debt... and has never turned a profit. And yet, somehow, we're supposed to believe the company is worth more than $56 billion today.
Of course, you've likely heard all this before. But if you thought Tesla had problems now, just wait... A virtual tsunami of new competition is coming soon. As Bloomberg reported yesterday...
In North America alone, the number of electric vehicles [EVs] will soar to 47 by the first quarter of 2022 from 24 in the third quarter of this year, according to data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. China's EV market will go to 80 from 61, and European buyers will have 58 electric choices, up from 31. Globally, there will be 136 EVs on the market by the end of that year, and that doesn't even include the hybrid models or fuel cells.
That will make for a very crowded field in a nascent zero-emission car market that most consumers have yet to embrace and where financial losses loom large. In the U.S., electric car sales were less than 1% of the market last year, according to the International Energy Agency. They were 1.4% in China and in the U.K.
"Companies are committed to electric cars, but there is little evidence that there is a lot of consumer demand for it," said Kevin Tynan, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence.
Economics 101 tells us surging supply combined with tepid demand is a recipe for lower prices. This isn't great news for any electric carmaker, but it's especially bad for Tesla. The company's already large losses could grow even bigger as competition ramps up.
Worse, more competitors are now targeting the luxury segment of the market where Tesla largely operates. More from Bloomberg...
Volkswagen's Audi brand will start building the E-tron Quattro, a luxury SUV, in 2018, followed by the Sportback coupe in 2019 and a third, unnamed vehicle by 2020.
Porsche will sell a production version of its Mission E sports sedan concept car starting in 2019.
In addition to BMW's current electric i3 compact and i8 sports car, the German automaker will have an electric Mini in 2019, an X3 compact SUV in 2020 and 10 others by 2025, Chairman Harald Krueger said in a speech in September.
Daimler's Mercedes-Benz brand plans 10 battery-powered vehicles in its EQ sub-brand through 2022, while Volvo Car, which is owned by China's Geely Automobile, has said any new models launched in 2019 or later will be offered only as hybrid, plug-in hybrid or all-electric versions.
If the company can't make money with practically no competition today, what hope will it have when the competition really gets going?
In the meantime, Tesla continues to fall short of Musk's lofty goals...
When the company launched its new, lower-cost Model 3 sedan in July, Musk promised the company would ramp up production quickly.
He said it would produce 100 units in August, 1,500 in September, and a huge 20,000 per month by December. From there, Musk said production would really take off... He said the company plans to make 500,000 Model 3s in 2018, and 1 million in 2020.
So how is his big plan coming along? As Bloomberg reported yesterday (emphasis added)...
The automaker built only 260 Model 3s during the quarter ended in September, less than a fifth of its 1,500-unit forecast. Output of the sedan that starts at $35,000 – roughly half the cost of the least expensive Model S – was lower than expected because of unspecified "bottlenecks," according to the company.
Musk has engendered enthusiasm about the future of electric cars and has automakers including Volkswagen, General Motors, and Daimler lining up to compete.
But what Tesla hasn't done is prove itself as a mass manufacturer. The slow start for Model 3, which was designed for easier assembly, reignites concern that the company will struggle to reach the lofty production targets set by its CEO.
You'd be a fool to believe Tesla will produce 1 million Model 3s per year anytime soon...
According to Karl Brauer, executive publisher for Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader, that ramp-up rate is unprecedented among experienced, high-volume automakers. (Tesla is neither.)
But Musk couldn't even meet the first of these projections. Worse, Tesla produced just 25,336 total vehicles across all its models last quarter. This is less than it produced in the three months ending in June.
In other words, Tesla is actually producing fewer cars just as it has promised to begin making exponentially more.
Maybe Musk is on to something... After all, when you're losing money on every vehicle you produce, making fewer cars doesn't sound so bad.
就说明他们缺少资金了， 因为他们先前生产的高价车如果销售好的话， 公司可以逐步盈利的。正因为销售量少， 营业额上不去， 微薄的利润抵不了巨额亏空， 才出此下下策推出廉价车型， Musk当初应该是寄希望以廉价推动销量获取cash flow, 但他忘了在没有解决电池的问题前， 没人会买这种车的。推出很多充电站也没有用， 反而说明了公司在近期内是无法解决电池问题的。其二， 即便他的廉价车销路好的话， 也是拿自己的矛射了自己， 由此而把可以获取丰厚利润的高档车型扼杀了，他如果能同意走低价路线的话， 正说明他是desperately 需要资金， 才铤而走险的。
全电用车是符合国际实行新能源新趋势， 大家都在伺机进入这一市场， 尤其当外界在嗅到他的资金链出现问题的情况下， 当然更愿意分享其中一块蛋糕的。