Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:
1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England. 2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks. 3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate. 4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal" 5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants. 6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID) 7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it. 8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity. 9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic 10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms 11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it. 12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet. 13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks. 14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!
Looks like going to that direction but no one knows for definite.
应该反映了群体对疫情的预期
把我惊到了。大律师，小律师，保安，被指控的人，有一半不戴口罩。
和我一个月前去的时候，完全不一样了。现在似乎戒备放松了。破罐子破摔了。
Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:
1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England.
2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks.
3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate.
4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal"
5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants.
6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID)
7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it.
8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity.
9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic
10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms
11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it.
12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet.
13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks.
14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!
Overall a great presentation. Lot of good news.
Contact tracing 也不搞了，在法院里，也没人让我手机扫描了。
希望我的直觉是错误的
刚刚和老然谈了，让他取消过几天的，在私立医院的白内障手术，改到3月份做。
就算不看吓人的感染数字，起码也得等这个入院数字稳定下来才敢说点什么吧。。。哪个医生敢说这话，要么是上面授意，要么就是可以预知未来？
我已经做过初步的计算，以法国6600万人口的基数，假设已经有1600万人已经感染过且不会再感染，那么就以5000万“潜在客户”计。现在比较可靠的数字是，没有打疫苗的病人每10万入icu是530人，打完疫苗的确诊者每10万重症是23人（已经非常出色了），5000万人口全部感染，重症会有11500人。假如平均每日感染50万到100万，大约需要2-3个月完成这个过程。按照现在omicron平均入院时间大大缩减来说，我们预备的5000icu病床，应该是可以应对这个挑战的。
但是这个数字又是非常脆弱的，因为首先，重复感染率没有计算。其次，疫苗接种不完全的情况没有计算，我们是按照百分百疫苗完全接种的数字来计算的。另外医院接诊的能力不单有病床，还有医护。现在医护高风险暴露，感染后至少需要隔离1周（如果要求医护带病也上岗，实在太无人性，对医院其他病人也非常危险），所以医护缺岗的状态在2－3成，有的部门直接一半缺勤。一旦医院接诊能力饱和，新冠死亡率就会增高，同时因为新冠占用病床导致的其它重病病人死亡也会飚高。
到底鹿死谁手，就看未来这1个半到2个月了。
都是我确实相信的，就怕误导别人。
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/bbs/kghy/3562847.html
也最好错过这个高峰时期，万一有个好歹难道还去医院抢病床吗？于人于己，负责的话蚌住最后两三个月
把omicron带入新西兰社区的第一例(被查到的)就是这样一个英国人，是个参加音乐会的DJ,后来哭哭啼啼地道歉，那也没办法了，已经进社区了。。国内据说也有，最后忍不住跑出去了。。然后偏偏就中了。。
我们确诊7天就可以出来了，全然不顾科学结果，至少14天以后活病毒才会消失的事实