路透社

军大衣
楼主 (文学城)

今天有篇文说,西班牙追踪过往病人病例,将最早的病例推到1月,比后来疫情爆发时的首例病人早很多。但是更惊人的是,根据污水水样追溯,早在去年3月的水样里就发现新冠病毒的痕迹了。假如水样不是后来遭到病毒污染的,就只能说明,,,

l
lost2008
现在什么媒体都跟小报似的了
螺丝螺帽
潜伏那么久?
a
alwaysluck
这是西班牙的报道

https://www.ub.edu/web/ub/en/menu_eines/noticies/2020/06/042.html?

 

SARS-CoV-2 detected in waste waters in Barcelona on March 12, 2019

This study counts on the participation of the researchers of the Group on Enteric Virus of the UB Gemma Chavarria Miró, Eduard Anfruns Estrada and Susana Guix, led by Rosa Maria Pintó and Albert Bosch.

26/06/2020 

Recerca

COVID-19 was announced in Wuhan (China) in early December in 2019 and it would reach every place worldwide later, including Europe. The first case in Europe was announced in France in late January 2020. This chronology on the evolution of the disease can change according to a study led by the University of Barcelona, in collaboration with Aigües de Barcelona.

 

Researchers detected the presence of the virus that caused the disease in samples of waste water in Barcelona, collected in March 12, 2019. These results, sent to a high impact journal and published in the archive medRxiv, suggest the infection was present before knowing about any case of COVID-19 in any part of the world.

 

 

This study, which counts on the participation of the researchers of theGroup on Enteric Virus of the UB Gemma Chavarria Miró, Eduard Anfruns Estrada and Susana Guix, led by Rosa Maria Pintó and Albert Bosch, is part of the project on sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. This initiative is coordinated by this research group, in collaboration with Aigües de Barcelona and funded by the REVEAL project, from the company SUEZ, in order to detect the virus in waste waters and adopt immediate measures considering future COVID-19 outbreaks.

 

An early detection tool

 

Altohugh COVID-19 is a respiratory disease, researchers proved there are large quantities of the coronavirus genome in the excrements that reach waste waters. This situation made the waste water-based epidemiology a potential tool for an early detection of the circulation of the virus among population, especially considering the important presence of asymptomatic people, especially considering the important presence of asymptomatic and asymptomatic people who transmit the virus.

As part of the sentinel surveillance project, and after April 13, the researchers analysed weekly the obtained samples in two big water treatment plants in Barcelona. “The levels of the SARS-CoV-2 genome coincided with the evolution of COVID-19 cases in the population”, notes Albert Bosch, professor at the Faculty of Biology of the UB and coordinator of the study.

 

COVID-19 cases hidden by the flu

 

Later, researchers analysed frozen samples from previous months to the systematic sampling, which revealed the growing apparition of SARS-CoV-2 genome between early January and early March in 2020, bringing the chronology of the coronavirus arrival in Spain even earlier: the presence of the virus was detected in January 15, 41 days before the announcement of the first case of COVID-19, which was announced on February 25.

According to the researchers, these results show the validity of the surveillance of waste waters to anticipate cases, specially considering the significant contribution of the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carriers in the spreading of the virus. “Those infected with COVID-19 could have been diagnosed with flu in primary care by mistake, contributing to the community transmission before the public health took measures”, notes Albert Bosch, also president of the Spanish Society of Virology.

“In the specific case of Barcelona –the virologist continues–, having detected the SARS-CoV-2 spread a month before could have improved the response to the pandemic”.

 

Analysis of frozen samples from 2018 and 2019

 

These results encouraged the researchers to analyse some frozen samples between January 2018 and December 2019, with the shocking results of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 genome in March 2019, before any notification of COVID-19 cases in the world. “All samples were negatives regarding the SARS-CoV-2 genome presence except for March 12, 2019, in which the levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low but were positive, using two different targets”, says the researcher.

“Barcelona receives many visitors for both tourist and professional reasons, –continues Bosch–, and it is possible for a similar situation to have taken place in other parts of the world, and since most of the COVID-19 cases show a similar symptomatology to the flu, those cases could have been disguised as an undiagnosed flu”.

 

Models in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological surveillance

 

The Group on Enteric Viruses is also in charge of the scientific coordination of a project on the SARS-CoV-2 sentinel surveillance in waste waters in Spain, funded by the Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge. This task counts on the participation of two groups from CSIC, the Institute of Agrochemistry and Food Technology (IATA-CSIC) and the Centre of Edafology and Applied Biology of Segura (CEBAS), as well as a group from the University of Santiago de Compostela. Moreover, together with the research group Microbiology of Water related to the Health (MARS) of the UB, led by Anicet Blanch, coordinates the surveillance of the same virus in Spanish waters.

Last, this group also takes part in a monitoring project on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in waste waters in the entrance of Catalan treatment plants, funded by the Catalan Water Agency and coordinated by the Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA). Another participant in this project is the Research Group on Virus, bacteria and protozoans of water interest in and food (VIRBAP) of the UB.

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l
lookatme..
我现在的推测:

这个病毒有不同的strains.欧洲这支和亚洲不同,所以只能说,这个病毒在全世界同时爆发, 时间稍有先后。

现在只等疫苗横空出世。

军大衣
我没说,意大利和西班牙对新冠痊愈病人的追踪调查基本证实了中国的报导

抗体能够提供的保护可能只有3个月左右。。。

实打实经一次病毒能够产生的抗体是这样,疫苗应答产生的抗体会更厉害一些吗?

军大衣
谢谢!
l
lookatme..
你看一下报道,现在疫苗有几支不同的设计,实在不行,就把所有不同的疫苗都打一遍
军大衣
疫苗这事我越来越不乐观了,特效药估计也难。。。

还是继续窝着吧。。。看看上帝会不会饶了人类,,,尤其是那么多笃信他的人

也或许,这最后要逼迫人类走上基因改造的绝路。

军大衣
我当然都看了,但是疫苗的原理基本都是差不多的

就是通过激发人体免疫力应答。

那个mrna疫苗可能略有不同。

l
lookatme..
你们恢复正常2周了吧,现在怎么样
军大衣
目前尚好,但是就怕像德国一样

某处有颗炸弹,突然爆出来。。。

l
lookatme..
肉类加工厂是很危险
l
lookatme..
而且我现在很怕人口流动,holiday 和 travel
军大衣
上周我们所有小学初中都正常复课了,不过开了4天,仅仅巴黎市区

就有3所学校因为发现了病例又重新关上,学生老师家长隔离14天。还隔离啥啊,下礼拜结束就放暑假了。有的校长就发飙说政府儿戏,明明还有两周就放暑假了,非逼着所有学校重开,她费力说服老师们回来上课,又花大钱让清洁公司来全面消毒,结果才开一天两天,就统统关掉。。。

l
lookatme..
我现在很担心秋季新冠大爆发
军大衣
一样的,我们本来也对政府非要让暑假前学校再开2周十分不解

现在被动地想想也好,如果有什么问题,不如趁这个时节病毒正在减少的时候重开学校把问题暴露出来,就像试用期,接下来政府和学校必须得考虑如何应对秋季可能的大爆发。

当然我尽量保持乐观。政府现在焦头烂额,估计未必有本事考虑到这个事,补这个洞。

我为什么让小孩去上学,也是出于同样的考虑,反正未来免不了要面对这个病毒,不如现在风险较低的时候去试试水,我们也相应调整好自己的应对,好迎接下一场战斗。

l
lookatme..
我希望学校能鼓励孩子带口罩
军大衣
我们这里小学是不要求戴口罩的,但是孩子可以戴,初中12岁以上的孩子必须戴口罩。

巴黎上周关闭的3所学校其中2所是小学。其中有一所的情况比较忧心,2周前学校还没有全面复课,就发现一个班级一位老师和一个学生阳性,当时关闭了这个班级,让老师和学生都回去隔离2周。结果上周呢,隔壁班级一个孩子又查出阳性。这就糟糕了,为了确认是否是在校内发生的传染,干脆关闭了全校做传染链追踪。

这个小学生是不是要戴口罩这事真的很难弄。前几天我们这里都是35,36度的天气,学校又没有空调的,几十个小孩挤在一间屋子里,,,我去接淡定的时候,发现孩子们只有他一个人坚持戴着口罩。。。看着他热得通红的脸湿漉漉的头发,很心疼。

 

l
lookatme..
你儿子真乖。我怕我儿子熬不住,不肯带。而且到时候暖气又开了,室内空气会很浑浊,病毒的温床
军大衣
他俩都非常听话,,,

当然还是听我的话,不是听政府的话。幸亏不是听政府的话,不然真的会无所适从

大娃已经申请好几次中午带饭去跟同学一道午餐了。现在学校餐厅不开,如果全日在校,就得自己带饭。我几次都严辞拒绝了,跟他说得很清楚,给他带饭我确实更轻松,但是面临的风险却不小。或许,下周五最后一天,我会允许他带三明治去一趟,就算跟同学一道party了真的很惨。

 

军大衣
收工前扫了一眼新闻,昨天大巴黎地区又有一所中学,两所小学发现病例
z
zhuangqiushui
XUE HUA PIAO PIAO BEI FENG XIAO XIAO~~~
分与合
人们的适应能力真是不可想象,全世界竟然都已经井然有序地适应了,戴口罩、不聚会、不拥抱和在家工作,也不再去商店买东西,一切都在网上