Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:
1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England. 2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks. 3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate. 4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal" 5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants. 6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID) 7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it. 8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity. 9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic 10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms 11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it. 12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet. 13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks. 14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!
In fact, the human body is the residence of a large number of commensal (non-pathogenic) and pathogenic microbial species that have co-evolved with the human genome, adaptive immune system, and diet (Belezario & Napolitano, 2015).
The genomes that constitute the human microbiome represent a remarkably diverse array of microorganisms that includes bacteria, archaea (primitive single-celled organisms), fungi, and even some protozoans and nonliving viruses. Bacteria are by far the most numerous members of the human microbiome（Rogers, 2021).
前天听到戴佩妮在一个节目上的演唱,觉得改得挺好，不过，我这个伴奏不是她唱的那版，但也不错。
下午去打第三针，不知道会不会影响下面几天的状态，所以我昨天多录了几首备用。
也请星座专家们预演一下，这首歌大概是什么星座唱给什么星座的。
胆小鬼
作词：郑淑紀
作曲：李偲菘
你爱咖啡 低调的感觉 偏爱收集的音乐 怪得很另类
你很特别 每一个小细节 哎呀呀呀 如此的对味
我怕浪费 情绪的错觉 讨厌自己像剌猬 小心的防卫
我很反对 为失恋掉眼泪 唉呀呀呀 离你远一些
喜欢看你紧紧皱眉 叫我胆小鬼 你的表情大过于朋友的暧昧
寂寞的称谓 甜蜜的责备 有独一无二 专属的特别
喜欢看你紧紧皱眉 叫我胆小鬼 我的心情就像和情人在斗嘴
奇怪的直觉 错误的定位 对你唉呀呀呀 我有点胆怯
我怕浪费 情绪的错觉 讨厌自己像剌猬 小心的防卫
我很反对 为失恋掉眼泪 唉呀呀呀 离你远一些
喜欢看你紧紧皱眉 叫我胆小鬼 你的表情大过于朋友的暧昧
寂寞的称谓 甜蜜的责备 有独一无二 专属的特别
喜欢看你紧紧皱眉 叫我胆小鬼 我的心情就像和情人在斗嘴
奇怪的直觉 错误的定位 对你唉呀呀呀 我有点胆怯
喜欢看你紧紧皱眉 叫我胆小鬼 你的表情大过于朋友的暧昧
寂寞的称谓 甜蜜的责备 有独一无二 专属的特别
喜欢看你紧紧皱眉 叫我胆小鬼 我的心情就像和情人在斗嘴
奇怪的直觉 错误的定位 对你唉呀呀呀 我有点胆怯
我在我的世界不能犯规
你在你的世界笑我无所谓
如果不出意外，希望有明媚的阳春三月：
Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:
1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England.
2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks.
3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate.
4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal"
5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants.
6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID)
7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it.
8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity.
9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic
10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms
11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it.
12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet.
13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks.
14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!
2022年初，有些朋友来问我关于后遗症和O小姐，我给他们回答的：
1，
截止昨天，我们医院系统的cases 近800了，不过，大多数症状比较温和了。我诊所好几个儿科病人都mild症状，如普通上呼吸道感染; 正如我去年的科普文里说的，按照病毒与人类相遇的发展理论，新冠病毒的毒性会减弱，传染性会越来越强，但致病性越来越低。 从这次O小姐的情况看，似乎符合病毒演变的规律。
纵观的初期的type A，type B，type C, 再到后来的delta variant，SARS-CoV-2，相比其他的急性病毒传染，其实总体是传染性大，但毒性相对来说较 SARS/MERS低， 所以感染的人数很多， 但死亡率其实是低于前两种的。如果没有其它合并感染和并发症， 进展相对来说比较缓慢。
只是，人类与病毒初遇时，没认知的细菌和病毒，只要致病致命，都是可怕的。对于人类初次相遇的病毒，保持自身健康自我休整， 提高免疫能力，平衡免疫能力，很重要。
纵观这次covid-19 的进程，70～80% 左右的新冠感染者轻症or无症状，无underlying conditions 身体健康的人，都能平安度过。有的轻症病人甚至不需要用药。有基础病的人，主要抗炎症反应/支持性治疗/和早期抗病毒。
病毒感染是一种自限性疾病，一般1-3周，过了这个时期，人体身体的免疫力扛过了病毒，就会自愈。真正的解药还是来自己的抵抗力。如果有基础病的人，体弱的人，在炎症风暴期（细胞因子风暴），需要缓解和支持性治疗，譬如： 高压氧， 鼻吸氧，大量补水，适度消炎抑制免疫过激反应，抗氧自由基抑制ROS (氧自由基风暴），早期药物抑制spike 蛋白和病毒合成等等。抗病毒药，只是在早期有点效果。
2，
感染COVID-19后引发的某些后遗症（post-acute sequelae of COVID-19) 和 COVID-19 syndrome，也许会成为人类健康与各国 healthcare 的一个隐患。我有儿科病人，感染covid-19后，发展了asthma；也有青壮年病人发展了hypothyroidism; 但个体差异性很大，有的就只是如一个普通感冒，没有任何影响。有待进一步研究和观察。
其实，就算普通感冒病毒，对个体，也是有很大差异性的影响。
这个研究报告到目前来说，似乎下结论还早，也有点危言耸听。病毒存在地球已经很久很久，多达数亿年之久，人类与病毒共存，已经是不可避免的事实。
In fact, the human body is the residence of a large number of commensal (non-pathogenic) and pathogenic microbial species that have co-evolved with the human genome, adaptive immune system, and diet (Belezario & Napolitano, 2015).
The genomes that constitute the human microbiome represent a remarkably diverse array of microorganisms that includes bacteria, archaea (primitive single-celled organisms), fungi, and even some protozoans and nonliving viruses. Bacteria are by far the most numerous members of the human microbiome（Rogers, 2021).
如今，人类的基因组已经完全破解，其中就包括数千种病毒的基因组，这些病毒基因就存在于人体内，人类是这些病毒的自然宿主，相安无事。
既然Covid-19 在人身上出现了，它就不会离开，人类只能与这病毒共舞。 静待更多的研究出炉。
新冠降纬成流感，也许会发展成慢性与人类共生的病毒，到流行季节发生, 跟流感病毒一样？ 我们拭目以待。 一起多多保重：）
关于后遗症文章Link：
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-26/coronavirus-can-persist-for-months-after-traversing-entire-body