China needs America more (双语)

L
LYJiang
楼主 (文学城)

Today, however ravaged by the pandemic, America remains the world’s largest market.* The Beautiful Country is where China and other export countries compete to unload their products. Competition means that production costs have to be cut as deeply as possible. 

 

Working people in export countries will be bringing home less and less. Consequently, they will have to consume less and less. At the same time, they will also have to save more and more for a rainy day if they can afford to do so.

 

The downward pressure on the wage comes with the downward pressure on demand. This being the case, a large export country like China has no good reason to invite foreign competition, no matter what and how it says to the contrary in the media. 

 

In the meantime, China is more than willing to take in more foreign asset investment (FAI), hoping that more jobs would be created for its hard-pressed youths in particular. But, FAI cuts both ways. Yes, it may be a stimulus to China's job market. On the flip side, however, FAI will also pump more hot air into China's asset bubble. A bubble economy is no fun when it pops.

 

Here is a friendly reminder: Every bubble pops, sooner or later, and probably sooner.

 

China cannot afford to lose America which yields to Beijing huge trade surpluses on top of other benefits such as "tech transfer." That's why Beijing has to take cheap money printed by Washington. This may sound like a leap of faith on China's part, but here is the reality: USD accounts for 61% of the world's currency reserves, compared to RMB's meager share of 2% (International Monetary Fund's 2019 report). See the pie chart below.

 

The world is struggling with weak demand, day and night. Guess who is smiling?

 

* The EU is arguably the world's largest market, but it is not a nation. It is a large group of European nations.

 

 

相较之下、中国更需要美国

 

今天,饱受疫情煎熬的美国依然是世上最大市场。* 所有出口国都争相在美市倾销货品。竞争的结果、是竞相削减生产成本。

 

出口国的生产者们不免受压减薪,因而直接削弱其消费力;与此同时,他们又要在能力可及时尽量增加储蓄应急。出口国的內需能不疲弱,几稀矣。当然,官方数据是否如实反映,各自判断好了。(请注意:官方可以大量举债来大兴土木、大炼钢铁等,顺理成章造成內需上升现象。然而,过去经验证明此举引致产能过剩,內部既不能消化,外部更造成供过于求的反效果。)

 

出口国国內工资的下行压力,直接导致国內需求的下行压力。现实如此,象中国這样的出口大国当然会严拒外来竞争,即使口头上、传媒间怎样弹唱开放国内市场的高调。

 

在不真正开放国内市场的同时,中国又戮力争取外来投资注进国内资产(FAI),其目的在于兴旺消费,推高需求,因而促增职位,减轻对尤其是年轻人的就业压力。這是可以理解的。问题是,外资会更刺激国内资产炒卖,令资产泡沫越吹越大。如果限定外来投资者必须跟从北京指示投资,又会吓跑他们。怎么办?

 

外资继续吹大资产泡沫,泡沫就更快会爆破。不引进外资刺激劳工市场,就业压力就会不胜负荷。

 

不管怎样凸显強国国力,北京还是要倚赖美国市场,还是要以生产者们的血汗制成品、来换取“美帝”印出来的“廉价”美钞。现实是、在全球外汇储备方面,美元占61%,人民币只占2% (据国际货币基金组织2019年度年报,见附图)。

 

美国印钞,除了藉此大搞疫情福利,增加执政党政治本钱之外,又不愁中国不继续供应相对廉价的消费品。中国呢,內需不振,就业情况不妙,加上资产急需灌水吹气,凡此种种,无美钞不行。无美钞不行,因为美钞尚行。又要美钞,又要在台上剑拔弩张,“美帝”是明白甚至理解的。大家各演其角色罢了,无必要辜负台下传媒朋友、各界看官们。

 

最后一问:在復甦官话背后,谁在微笑?

 

*欧盟或许是世上最大巿场,不过它是代表众邦,本身并非一个国家

 

 

---- Lingyang Jiang