大部分人都无法Generate Alpha unless taking leverage. However,
leverage remains, after all, the fastest way for anyone to lose the capital in its entirety.
So, I wouldn't recommend Alpha generating strategy. You do not really need alpha, as long as the Fed and other financial institutions keep pumping liquidity to the capital markets.
My investing has been successful if you consider consistent
alpha generating a success.
However, I only manage my own money. I can turn the portfolio to all cash if I see it appropriate, and also I can slightly lever up the portfolio if opportunities knock on the door.
For any manager of a pool of capital, they do not have this flexibility, because they promise to their clients that they would take risks to generate returns.
After all, it is all about your personal risk tolerance. if you can tolerate a drawdown of 90%, you stick to the market and wait for the market to compensate you.
很多人一提到投资，就会劝你：“别想太多，买指数基金定投就行了。”这话没错，尤其对刚开始接触投资、或者没有时间研究市场的人来说，定投确实是最稳妥的策略。
有一个非常关键的概念，叫做Alpha。它代表的是你超越市场的收益，也就是说：你靠自己的能力、判断、研究，赚到了比大盘更多的钱。举个简单的例子，如果大盘今年涨了10%，而你选的股票涨了15%，那多出来的5%，就是你的Alpha。
我一直认为，Alpha才是检验投资水平的核心。靠大盘涨而赚钱，是跟着水涨船高；但你选中一只股票，或者提前判断某个板块爆发，那就是你真正的眼光带来的回报。这种靠认知赚的钱，比市场自然上涨带来的更有说服力、更有成就感。
当然，我自己一开始也是从定投做起的。定投让人保持纪律、避免情绪化操作，比追涨杀跌、跟风买题材股、乱赌期权要强太多。它是投资路上的“稳扎稳打”，特别适合新手入门。但随着经验和工具的积累，我开始重新思考：能不能在保持基本定投的同时，也主动出击，赚点Alpha回来？
今天这个时代，信息透明、工具强大，很多个人投资者的研究能力已经接近甚至超过部分基金经理。我们可以查数据、看财报、用AI分析趋势，甚至做模型跑策略。如果你已经具备这些能力，却还一味满足于定投，其实是放弃了本来属于你的优势。
Alpha不是空想，它来自你多看一眼财报、多理解一个行业、多提前一点布局；它属于那些肯思考、不躺平、敢行动的人。市场的平均值给所有人都准备好了，但超越平均，只留给少数真正努力的人。
指数基金的长期胜率确实体现在它的“广度”：通过分散投资来降低个股风险、行业风险、乃至国家风险。但是，它牺牲的是“深度”和“灵活性”。比如QQQ里边有100只股票，如果你明明已经研究出NVDA、AMZN、TSLA更强，那你为啥还要去“打包”买一堆业绩平平、甚至未来堪忧的公司？这就像你知道哪家餐厅好吃，还非要去吃食堂套餐一样——安全是安全，但性价比并不高。
我不否定定投。你可以定投，但也可以追求更高；可以打基础，也可以搭框架。最好的投资，从来不是照抄别人，而是结合自己的能力和节奏，走出一条属于自己的路。别让“定投就够了”的声音，限制了你更大的可能性。
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/2092073.html
leverage remains, after all, the fastest way for anyone to lose the capital in its entirety.
So, I wouldn't recommend Alpha generating strategy. You do not really need alpha, as long as the Fed and other financial institutions keep pumping liquidity to the capital markets.
alpha generating a success.
However, I only manage my own money. I can turn the portfolio to all cash if I see it appropriate, and also I can slightly lever up the portfolio if opportunities knock on the door.
For any manager of a pool of capital, they do not have this flexibility, because they promise to their clients that they would take risks to generate returns.
After all, it is all about your personal risk tolerance. if you can tolerate a drawdown of 90%, you stick to the market and wait for the market to compensate you.
还是要学会工具。
twice, both years the broad market did very well.
I reversed that trend in 2023 and 2024 by concentrating the portfolio in 10 positions. Both year I outperformed the broad market.
强在哪里？业绩强，前景强，还是价钱强？