Looking back at recent market activity, we've been accustomed to "V" shaped bottoms since the bull market began in October 2022 – as "dip" buyers quickly surfaced on every decline.
But we're in a period of extreme uncertainty and volatility. And bottoms in uncertain times typically take the shape of the letter "W."
This plays out as a deep oversold situation (like we're seeing now), a relief rally, and then a lower low... ideally with less selling pressure.
If all of that happens over the next two to four months, which would likely require an about face on tariff policy, then we may see customary strength into year-end.
当然还有很大的可能走熊。 We‘re not out of woods. 这就是为什么越靠进那个区间越危险
I feel what you could have done better this year is your overall investment strategy
1: You were too aggresive when market needs cautious earlier this year
2: And when R/R is really in favor of a 15-25% rally in early April, you were not able to particiapte due to #1
3: And now, market has already ralled 15%, I really felt you could just sit out this rally and let market prove itself in Green A/Red B area. It is ok sit out and not play every swing, but it is important to be on the right side of the swing
随着蓝色 b 浪的结束，当前的关注点是蓝色 c 浪的路径 -- 我们如何到达绿色 A / 红色 B 区域。从大的格局来看，那个区域将会是未来几周或几个月最重要的战场之一. 这一点没有改变（我在之前的帖子中已经详细说明了原因，这里就不重复了）。如果你不关心蓝色 c 的路径，可以忽略这条帖子。
从蓝色 b 的低点反弹后的最初走势没有意外，符合作为第 i 浪的特征。但接下来就有点复杂了
在正常情况下，应该看到一波更深的回调作为第 ii 浪（见图中红色路径）。但目前的实际走势 （见图中紫色路径）不是这样， 这个ii浪回调不够深。我昨天和今天都提到过这点，现在可以更清楚地在下面的chart上看到。
所以，目前有两个可能的情况：
1：如果市场继续上涨并突破 468（目前盘后已经超过 468，但需要明天常规交易时间确认），那么很可能我们已经完成了第 ii 浪（尽管回调比较浅），现在正朝着第 iii 浪推进。你可以参考图中的紫色路径看后续可能的演变。
2：市场仍然有可能从 468 附近掉头，走完较深的第 ii 浪，如图中的红色路径所示。但如果要走这条路，it really needs to turn around now. 因此，明天的走势会给我们一个早期信号，显示MM想把行情带向哪个方向。
从整体格局来看，紫色路径和红色路径的区别并不大，它们的目标区间相差不多, 但是紫色路径的终点要高于红色路径。红色路径提供了一个更低的入场机会，但等待它有错过整个上涨行情的可能。
总体来说，如果前一阵错过了蓝色 b 浪的位置，现在确实很难找到一个理想的进场点，因为风险回报比（R/R）会开始变得不利。一旦市场到达绿色 A 或红色 B，很大概率会发生一场多空双方的激烈争夺，那里有200 均线的博弈。另外还要注意，任何时候市场跌破 4 月 7 日的低点，那将是一个强烈的熊市信号。因此，在考虑任何风险回报比（R/R）时，这一点必须纳入考量。
图中的具体点位只是一个范围参考，而不是绝对点位。比如说这个红色ii 是有可能走的比图中显示的还深。
Looking back at recent market activity, we've been accustomed to "V" shaped bottoms since the bull market began in October 2022 – as "dip" buyers quickly surfaced on every decline.
But we're in a period of extreme uncertainty and volatility. And bottoms in uncertain times typically take the shape of the letter "W."
This plays out as a deep oversold situation (like we're seeing now), a relief rally, and then a lower low... ideally with less selling pressure.
If all of that happens over the next two to four months, which would likely require an about face on tariff policy, then we may see customary strength into year-end.
My Conclusion: It might not be "official" by all measures, but stocks are in a bear market.
I feel what you could have done better this year is your overall investment strategy
1: You were too aggresive when market needs cautious earlier this year
2: And when R/R is really in favor of a 15-25% rally in early April, you were not able to particiapte due to #1
3: And now, market has already ralled 15%, I really felt you could just sit out this rally and let market prove itself in Green A/Red B area. It is ok sit out and not play every swing, but it is important to be on the right side of the swing
just in case the other bottom kicks in later. I am not very good at playing swing trading.
deep dive in the future. Sell in May, go away is also a factor.