Some people are talking about some long term treasury lost 1/2 of face value. Is that normal since they were bought/aucitoned during Covid years when the interest was really low？
Is there concern interest could go up to say 8%-10% in a few years? 10 year or 30 years treasury bond interest around 4-5% now. I thought the concern now is recession. If so, Fed would cut interest then.
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2020:
In January 2020 (pre-pandemic declarations), the 10-year yield was around 1.8% As COVID-19 concerns intensified in February-March 2020, there was a massive flight to safety On March 9, 2020, the yield briefly dropped below 0.5% for the first time in history The 10-year yield hit its all-time low of approximately 0.52% in August 2020 By the end of 2020, rates had recovered slightly to around 0.9-1.0%
2021:
Rates began climbing as vaccine rollouts progressed and economic recovery expectations grew By March 2021, the 10-year yield had risen to approximately 1.7%
Some people are talking about some long term treasury lost 1/2 of face value. Is that normal since they were bought/aucitoned during Covid years when the interest was really low？
Is there concern interest could go up to say 8%-10% in a few years? 10 year or 30 years treasury bond interest around 4-5% now. I thought the concern now is recession. If so, Fed would cut interest then.
________________
2020:
In January 2020 (pre-pandemic declarations), the 10-year yield was around 1.8% As COVID-19 concerns intensified in February-March 2020, there was a massive flight to safety On March 9, 2020, the yield briefly dropped below 0.5% for the first time in history The 10-year yield hit its all-time low of approximately 0.52% in August 2020 By the end of 2020, rates had recovered slightly to around 0.9-1.0%2021:
Rates began climbing as vaccine rollouts progressed and economic recovery expectations grew By March 2021, the 10-year yield had risen to approximately 1.7%只能不停长利息，滚雪球下山，加速度
RMB (relative to USD) 扁
stocks under profit cut risk from deglobalization/tariff risk
USA can always print dollar, although with risk of inflation but at least it can export some of inflation with dollar circulation everywhere.
去购买力强稳定的地方，等坍塌发生
在如此动荡的年代里，实在是没有万全之策。每个人的目标和目的都不同，方法和工具也会不同。对于不喜欢投资房产的人来说，我认为如果不深刻理解长债是不能安心退休的。
美国长期国债（基金）到底有那些风险？我认为主要有两个：1. 久期利率风险： 在现在的长期收益率4.5-5.0%之上， 如果收益率增长至6%-8%甚至更高（甚至如80年代中期 升到 10%+ ），长债价格暴跌，对资产会有巨大影响。但是如果持有长债的目的是固定收入，对此倒不必过于关心，甚至可以继续加仓。
2. 通膨风险：通膨是退休或临近退休的人员最担心的一件事情。如果通膨长期高企，大家的日子都不好过，实在想不出有什么好的应对办法，买TIPS吗？恐怕也是顾此失彼。听天由命吧。
那么美国长期国债有违约风险吗？理论上是有的，但是如果真到了那一步，就如火星来撞地球，大家一起完蛋，毕竟我们都是凡人，不可能面面俱到吧。
对于长债，我把它当作固定收入的重要组成部分，但不重仓也不会把它当股票来炒作。
因为受多方向，相互对抗的因素影响。有造成利率上升的因素，也有导致利率下降的因素。现在处于相对比较平衡的位置。