Gold,Bonds Safe Haven Allure Fading With Bitcoin emergence

l
lionhill
楼主 (文学城)

Bitcoin may not fit the traditional mold of a safe haven, but in a world of rising sovereign risk and broken financial norms, it may be time to redefine what 'safe' actually means.
 

What to know:

Gold has risen 90% in five years, but with over 40% of the USD supply created in 2020 alone, it’s barely keeping pace with monetary debasement.

Bitcoin’s short-term volatility contrasts with its long-term resilience, outperforming every major asset class since the COVID crash with a 1,000% gain.
 

The idea of "safe haven" assets—traditionally marked by gold and government bonds—amid market turmoil, is being tested like never before.

For decades, portfolio construction and risk management were simple: 60% equities, 40% bonds and when markets panicked, capital typically flowed into gold and government bonds. These assets were slow, steady, and predictable, making them an ideal safe haven for investors looking for protection against volatility. But in today’s world of 24/7 markets, geopolitical instability, and rising distrust in sovereign systems, have turned that logic on its head, asking the question: does the definition of a safe haven need a refresh?

Enter the new kid in the block: bitcoin.

It is highly volatile, widely misunderstood, and often dismissed as a speculative asset by many corners of Wall Street and Main Street. Yet, it has staged an extraordinary run since the COVID-19 market lows.

It’s up over 1,000% since the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020. During that same period, long-duration bonds—measured via iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)—are down 50% from their 2020 highs. Even gold, the true and tried safe haven asset—up 90% over five years—looks less impressive when

adjusted for monetary debasement, which saw, in 2020 alone, over 40% of the total USD money supply being printed.

Still, bitcoin’s safe haven credential remains contested by investors.

In several recent risk-off events, it acted less like a hedge and more like a high-beta risk asset against the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF. 

Covid-19 (March 2020): BTC fell 40% vs QQQ’s 27%

Bank crisis (March 2023): BTC -14%, QQQ -7%

Yen carry trade unwind (Aug 2024): BTC -20%, QQQ -6%

Tariff-led selloff (April 2025): BTC -11%, QQQ -16%

The first three examples show bitcoin as a kind of leveraged tech trade. But the most recent tariff shock broke the pattern — bitcoin dropped less than the Nasdaq, showing relative strength in an otherwise weak macro environment spurred by President Trump’s tariffs.

While these data points may not make a trend, this evolving behavior highlights a broader phenomenon: the global financial backdrop has changed.

“Non-sovereign stores of value, like bitcoin, should do well," said NYDIG Research in a note. "Politically neutral assets should be exempt from the global machinations at play right now.”

Bitcoin is volatile, yes, but it is also globally liquid, decentralized, censorship-resistant, and immune to tariffs or central bank policy. In an era of geopolitical tension and financial repression, those attributes start to make the asset look more enduring than other safe havens.

Meanwhile, traditional safe havens aren’t looking so safe. Gold’s gains look less impressive when weighed against the scale of monetary expansion. Long-duration bonds aren't faring much better either as the 30-year treasury yield approaches 5%, making them painful for duration-heavy portfolios.

Since the sell-off began last Thursday, the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 10%, bitcoin is down 6%, TLT has fallen over 4%, and gold has slipped more than 3%. Meanwhile, the DXY index — which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies — remains relatively flat, while the all-important U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged nearly 8%.

On a risk-adjusted basis, bitcoin is holding its ground—performing no worse than traditional safe-haven assets like gold or TLT.

Looking at these four major crisis events, a pattern emerges: : each sell-off in bitcoin has marked a significant long-term bottom. During the COVID crash, BTC dropped to ~$4,000 — a level never seen again. In the March 2023 banking crisis, it briefly fell below $20,000 before resuming its climb. The August 2024 yen carry trade unwind brought it down to $49,000 — again, a level that hasn’t returned. If history is any guide, wherever this current low takes us, it may well establish the next long-term floor.

So, is Bitcoin a safe haven?

If the old framing — low volatility and downside protection during a panic — still holds, then BTC falls short.

But in a financial world dominated by sovereign risk, inflation, and constant policy uncertainty, bitcoin starts to look more like an asset that

that investors might need to consider for durability, neutrality and liquidity.

In this evolving landscape, maybe bitcoin isn’t failing the safe haven test. Maybe the old playbook of what safe haven is, needs to change.

l
lionhill
It’s up over 1,000% since the COVID-19 crash in March 2020
l
lionhill
long-duration bonds are down 50% from their 2020 highs
l
lionhill
gold, the true safe haven asset—up 90% over five years
m
mobius
比特币这次可能证明了自己保值的功能, 以太索垃那被空气币害了.
l
lionhill
大部分人受不了它的volatility,我是坚定长持不动摇
越王剑
得持有多少枚才够?
l
lionhill
我主要IBIT股票和leap,不持有比特币
B
BrightLine
好像你也不多啊,哈哈,我家LD只信黄金
l
lionhill
是不多,准备加一些
B
BrightLine
我怎么觉得黄金还会涨,哈哈
l
lionhill
黄金volatility低一些但长期不觉得能跑赢比特币,不有人建议让大嘴把黄金储备转移一部分成比特币
B
BrightLine
这次关税以后不知道还有多少人相信川普?我宁可相信黄金,哈哈

l
lionhill
他支持比特币应该不会动摇Lutnick的Cantor投了2B bitcoin infrastructure
l
lionhill
至少5%的asset
l
lionhill
It’s marching toward one month high now