三心哥,这是我画的图

a
aloevera
楼主 (文学城)

a
aloevera
担心可能会去4747那个点位,然后再反弹到5267-5389。
T
Tianyazi
再跌250点,下周就到了!
a
aloevera
三百多点,6.5%跌幅也是挺吓人的。今天应该买个SQQQ对冲一下的。
三心三意
I wont trust any automatic tools from TradingView :)

We need to see one of the following scenarios to confirm C wave has bottomed

1: We have a clear iv wave followed by a clear wave v down. So far, the bounce today does not feel like it is a iv.

2: Sometimes, you just wont be able to see a clear structure due to market's extreme volatility, in that case, we need to see a bounce from whatever low to go above 0.618 Fibs (measured according to the length of iii wave). Until index can climb back above that level, it will turn around and go to another low

  This was exactly what happened when QQQ was 494 2 weeks ago (rejected at exact .382), and QQQ 480 this week (rejected at .618).

The normal region for this C wave should be 4900-5100, but we are not in a normal market, so, need to pay attention to the actual movement. 

Now, how you trade is totally up to you. Someone is comfortable with left side trading, and others comfortable with right side trading. This is something you need to decide for yourself

三心三意
Too late for that ....

When you hedge, try to hedge near resistance, such as when QQQ was 494, or even this week when it was 480 (I posted it multiple times)

Now, we are much closer to support that resistance, i am not sure hedging now is a good idea.

a
aloevera
You are right. We are close to the bottom now. I probably

missed your posts about 480. I have not been on the forum the whole time. 

a
aloevera
Got it. Thanks.If we use scenario #2, SPX has to go above
三心三意
帖子在这里。。。
三心三意
Yes, dont rely on price level to determine if it is bottom

You need to see the subwave structure withint the wave. In this case, either we need a clear 5 wave down, or if that is not possible to tell, we need to rely on the bounce to see if that bounce can go above resistance. Until those take place, the current wave will keep extending

三心三意
所有这些都是关税消息出来之前市场给我们的信号:)
a
aloevera
Fantastic! Thanks so much! :)