我接下来几年的投资方式

y
yesterday*once*more
楼主 (文学城)

每个人的投资方式都是自己的经济状况和风险承受能力决定的。我和领导接近退休。我工作靠NIH funding,随时准备退休;领导工作的小公司目前经营情况不错,但工作比较辛苦,也是准备随时退。

退休的准备情况是:按目前(关税导致的通货膨胀前)两老的基本生活计算,两老的退休金足够,并且退休金有~3%的年增长,可以抵消部分通货膨胀。如果接着工作下去,每多工作一年退休金会有大约10%的增加,两年后接近cap,然后就没有多少增长了。所以,两年后退休可能是最好的时候。孩子们虽然大学毕业,但都赶上了这波CS的低潮,被layoff。所以,两老的预算就是cover老大的房子,每月大约6000;老二还在读书,明年毕业,经济上给他安排好了,读书期间应该不需要另外资助。希望他毕业后能顺利找到工作。

鉴于以上情况,从几年前开始我把自己管理的退休账户从增长性基金往分红为主的基金或股票转移,争取分红能每月产生6000左右的现金流,这个数字也是为了保证退休后的收入和退休前相当。今年基本完成这个安排。投资目前集中在JEPI/JEPQ/EWZ上,还有一些F,前一段还有一些VZ,目前都卖掉后买进JEPQ。剩余的钱,除了相当于一年应急用的现金外,在慢慢投入到SP500 index fund。

目前手头现金不多,大约是Portfolio的20%。目前基本是每次SP500降2%,投入2-3万资金。这个投法,大约在SP500到达4800-5000时现金差不多用完。再往下跌,怎么办?

在思考的是:如果我和领导不丢工作,这些分红并不需要,可以考虑定投进SP500;如果老大找到工作不需要我们帮助,是不是该考虑把JEPI换成SP500 index。JEPI今年到目前为止表现不错,这是covered- call strategy的特点。但股市进入上升阶段,这个strategy是很难跟上的。所以,等cash用完,股市还跌的话,会根据当时的情况决定是不是换,分批换。。。

 

欢迎网友建议。我会根据自己的风险承受力和网友建议调整后面的投资方式。先谢谢!

越王剑
JEPI的分红率在逐年降低

现在就剩7%了吧。

h
hhtt
破唱片再放一遍,任何红利不是以公司产品的盈利产生的,而是以人为的衍生工具炒出来的,都是耍流氓,风险不小早晚得出事!
y
yesterday*once*more
注意到了,是7%左右。
越王剑
When the price fall, dividend will go lower, then lower

It uses your principles to pay you back. And it is not qualified dividends. You will be in lose and lose situation. 

Switch to SCHD immediately. Lol...

SCHD increased dividend by 22% recently. It has steady dividend growth rate.

b
bobpainting
怎么知道那些分红是真实的盈利那些不是?
y
yesterday*once*more
这个我到目前的观察还没看出来。2022年我观察了一年,才决定的。。。

不用的分红再投入应该会帮助股市跌,7%的分红会变少。SP500的分红还没有计算进去,所以分红的预算目前是有一定空间的。。。

h
hhtt
看看这基金持有的前10大股票,他们的分红率是多少?第一大股票Visa分红率0.68%,怎么产生7%分红率?

V Visa Inc.1.71% MA Mastercard Incorporated1.70% PGR The Progressive Corporation1.67% ABBV AbbVie Inc.1.59% META Meta Platforms, Inc.1.57% AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.1.52% SO The Southern Company1.45% TT Trane Technologies plc1.45% ADI Analog Devices, Inc.1.44% NVDA NVIDIA Corporation1.42%
轻声细语62
谢谢分享!也给大家提供些借鉴

你们夫妻都还不到领SS benefit 的年龄吧? 打算什么时候开始领?退休后Medicare 怎么办?可否分享一下?谢谢!

s
sji
退休后的第一天就领社保金
b
bobpainting
聪明!GOOGLE显示的这些基金的YTD包括分红吗?
y
yesterday*once*more
快了。。。

领导的医疗保险跟我走,现在就是我的dependent,小公司保险不好。退休后我的雇主提供医疗保险,和工作期间差别不大,领导依然做我的dependent,一起cover。费用和现在差不多。

三心三意
JEPI 就是SP500 Coverd call ETF 啊。这样的ETF肯定跑不过SP500 本身
越王剑
分红主要是卖call来的

股市涨,call值钱。所以它没问题。一旦股市跌,call就不值钱,那就得多卖。卖多了,一旦股市上涨,全被call走,还得追高。所以就得花钱rollover. 所以股市可以恢复,它不见得能恢复。

如果多年熊市或平市,那就更难了。为了提供吸引力,分红不能降,那就是拿你的本金来分红以吸引新钱。逐渐的变成杀猪盘。很多人最终会惨亏。

h
hhtt
基金的价格不包括分红,YTD就是它的价格的变化。
b
bobpainting
退休后还有单位医疗保险真不错。
云崖水暖
问了问ChatGPT,这是它的回答

1. "股市涨,call值钱。所以它没问题。" (If the market rises, call options are valuable, so it’s fine.)

True – When the market rises, JEPQ's covered calls generate high premiums, which support its dividend payouts. However, this also means JEPQ’s upside is capped, since the stocks can get called away if they rise too much.

2. "一旦股市跌,call就不值钱,那就得多卖。" (If the market falls, call options become worthless, so it has to sell more calls.)

Partially True – In a falling market, call options generate lower premiums because there’s less demand. However:

JEPQ still earns some premium, though less than in a bull market.

JEPQ owns stocks (not just options), so it still has value.

3. "卖多了,一旦股市上涨,全被call走,还得追高。" (If it sells too many calls and the market rises, the stocks are called away, and it has to buy back at a higher price.)

Not exactly – JEPQ mainly uses out-of-the-money (OTM) call options, meaning:

If the market rises a little, JEPQ keeps its stocks.

If the market surges, some gains are lost, but JEPQ still profits from stock appreciation within the call strike limits.

It doesn’t "lose all its stocks"—covered call ETFs don’t sell all holdings automatically.

JEPQ managers adjust call positions actively to reduce this risk (e.g., rolling options up to higher strikes).

4. "所以就得花钱 rollover." (So it has to spend money rolling over calls.)

True, but not always a bad thing – Rolling covered calls is a common practice to avoid losing too much upside.

If done well, it limits loss while maintaining income.

If done poorly, it can hurt returns.

However, JEPQ is actively managed, which helps reduce this risk compared to fully mechanical strategies like QYLD.

5. "股市可以恢复,它不见得能恢复。" (The stock market can recover, but JEPQ may not fully recover.)

Mostly true – If the Nasdaq fully rebounds, JEPQ won’t rise as much as QQQ, because:

Covered calls limit upside gains.

It still pays out dividends instead of reinvesting them.

So, JEPQ’s recovery can lag behind QQQ, but it still recovers over time.

6. "如果多年熊市或平市,那就更难了。" (If there’s a multi-year bear or flat market, it gets worse.)

True – A prolonged bear market means:

Lower call premiums → Lower dividends.

Stock prices stagnate or fall → Lower capital appreciation.

This could hurt total returns if the Nasdaq-100 stays weak for many years.

7. "为了提供吸引力,分红不能降,那就是拿你的本金来分红以吸引新钱。" (To maintain high dividends, it may use principal to pay dividends, attracting new investors.)

Possible, but not entirely accurate – Covered call ETFs rely on option premiums, but:

If option income declines, the dividend may be reduced (not automatically pulling from principal).

Some covered call funds (e.g., QYLD) have been criticized for eroding capital over time, but JEPQ is actively managed to mitigate this.

So, dividends can drop in bad markets, but it’s not necessarily a Ponzi-like system.

8. "逐渐的变成杀猪盘。很多人最终会惨亏。" (Eventually, it becomes a Ponzi scheme, and many investors will lose badly.)

Exaggeration – JEPQ isn’t a Ponzi scheme, but:

Investors who don’t understand the covered call strategy may expect QQQ-like growth while collecting 8-10% dividends, which is unrealistic.

If bought at the wrong time (e.g., before a market crash) and sold in panic, investors can lose money.

However, JEPQ won’t go to zero unless the entire Nasdaq collapses.

Final Verdict: StatementTrue?Notes
Market rises → Calls generate income → No problem But upside is capped.
Market falls → Calls generate less → More selling needed Lower call premiums, but not zero.
Too many calls → Stocks get called away → Buying back at high prices Uses OTM calls, so not all stocks get sold.
Must spend money rolling calls Standard risk management.
Market recovers, JEPQ may not fully recover Limited upside vs. QQQ.
Multi-year bear or flat market is bad Lower income and stock growth.
May use principal to maintain dividends ? Possible in extreme cases, but not the norm.
Becomes a Ponzi scheme No, but investors can lose money if they don’t understand the risks.
Key Takeaways:

JEPQ is not a "scam" or "Ponzi", but it trades growth for income.

It won’t perform well in prolonged bear markets and may lag during recoveries.

It’s best for income investors, not for those expecting full Nasdaq growth.

==============

"任何红利不是以公司产品的盈利产生的,而是以人为的衍生工具炒出来的。"
(Any dividend that doesn’t come from a company’s product earnings, but rather from financial derivatives, is just speculation.)

Partially True – JEPQ’s dividends do not come from company profits (like traditional dividend stocks such as KO, JNJ).

Instead, JEPQ generates income from selling covered call options on Nasdaq-100 stocks.

These option premiums are then distributed as dividends, rather than coming from business profits.

But Misleading

Covered call strategies are legitimate financial tools, widely used by institutional investors.

JEPQ still owns stocks in the Nasdaq-100, which provide some capital appreciation potential.

Just because the dividend comes from options doesn’t mean it’s a scam—it’s a structured income strategy.

"都是耍流氓,风险不小早晚得出事!"
(This is reckless, the risk is high, and it will eventually collapse.)

Exaggerated
JEPQ does carry risks, but it is not a "ticking time bomb." Key risks include:

Lower upside potential (caps growth due to covered calls).

Dividend sustainability issues in prolonged bear markets (if call premiums shrink).

Not suitable for all investors (best for those seeking income, not pure growth).

However, JEPQ is not designed to collapse—it’s simply an income-focused ETF that trades growth for stability and cash flow.

Final Verdict:

JEPQ does not pay dividends from company profits, but from option premiums (true).

This doesn’t mean it’s a scam—it’s just a different investment strategy.

It has risks (limited upside, possible dividend cuts in bear markets), but it won’t “blow up” randomly.

Who should buy JEPQ?
Good for income-focused investors who understand covered call strategies.
Not ideal for growth investors expecting full Nasdaq-100 upside.

 

s
sportfan
谢分享!你的分红基金都包括哪些?
丹顶红
买SCHD还不如买国债
轻声细语62
放弃每年8%的增额?
轻声细语62
退休还能有医疗保险,你们单位真好,这就去掉了提前退休的最大一个顾虑。