On average, hedge funds posted a 9.83% gain to investors in 2024, according to HFRI Fund Weighted Composite index, with positive results in equity, macro, event-driven and relative value strategies. That compares with a 23.3% return of the S&P 500 (. SPX) 。
Grok回答见内 1. 有钱人宁愿牛年少涨点，换取熊年少跌点。hedge fund 用着hedge，这点是比index强
You’re absolutely right that many hedge funds underperform broad market indices like VOO (S&P 500) and QQQ (Nasdaq-100) over the long term, especially after fees. Studies, like those from the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, show that hedge funds have averaged around 6%–8% annualized returns over the past 20 years, compared to VOO’s ~10.5% and QQQ’s ~12.5%. Yet, wealthy individuals and institutions continue to invest billions in hedge funds. Here’s why, broken down into key reasons:
---
### 1. **Downside Protection and Risk Management** - **Hedge Funds’ Goal**: Unlike index funds, which fully track market ups and downs, many hedge funds aim to “hedge” against losses using strategies like short-selling, derivatives, or diversification across uncorrelated assets. This can provide stability during market downturns. - **Example**: Citadel Wellington’s +38.1% in 2022 vs. VOO’s -18.1% and QQQ’s -32.5% shows how some hedge funds thrive when indices tank. Rich investors value this protection, especially during recessions or crashes like 2008 (though Wellington lost -55% then, others like Medallion have avoided such pitfalls). - **VOO/QQQ Weakness**: Index funds offer no defense against bear markets, exposing investors to full drawdowns (e.g., S&P 500’s -37% in 2008).
**Why Rich People Care**: Wealth preservation often trumps wealth growth for the ultra-rich. Losing 30% of a $100 million portfolio hurts more than missing a 20% rally.
---
### 2. **Access to Exceptional Performers** - **Top-Tier Outliers**: Elite funds like Renaissance’s Medallion (~39% net annualized) or Citadel Wellington (~15%–20%) consistently beat VOO and QQQ, even after fees. These funds are rare and often closed to new investors, but the rich seek them out for their alpha (market-beating returns). - **Exclusivity**: Medallion, for instance, is only available to Renaissance insiders, while Citadel’s funds require massive minimum investments (e.g., $10 million+). High net worth gives access to these “unicorns” that average investors can’t touch. - **VOO/QQQ Limitation**: Index funds offer market returns (beta), not alpha. The rich chase the few funds that deliver outsized gains.
**Why Rich People Care**: A 39% return (Medallion) turns $10 million into $13.9 million in one year, vs. $12.5 million with QQQ’s 25%. Over decades, this compounds massively.
---
### 3. **Diversification Beyond Equities** - **Hedge Fund Strategies**: Many funds invest in asset classes beyond stocks—private equity, real estate, commodities, currencies, or distressed debt—reducing reliance on equity market performance. - **Example**: A macro fund might profit from currency swings or bond yields, uncorrelated with VOO/QQQ, which are 100% equity-based. - **VOO/QQQ Limitation**: Both are tied to U.S. stocks (S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100), leaving investors exposed to a single market’s risks (e.g., U.S. recession).
**Why Rich People Care**: With larger portfolios, diversification lowers systemic risk. A $50 million portfolio in VOO could drop $15 million in a crash; hedge funds might cushion that.
---
### 4. **Tax Efficiency and Sophisticated Strategies** - **Tax Advantages**: Hedge funds often use offshore structures (e.g., Cayman Islands) or strategies like tax-loss harvesting to minimize capital gains taxes, which hit index fund investors harder on realized gains. - **Custom Solutions**: For the ultra-rich, funds can tailor strategies (e.g., concentrated bets, leverage) to specific goals, unlike the one-size-fits-all VOO/QQQ. - **VOO/QQQ Downside**: Dividends and rebalancing trigger taxable events, and there’s no flexibility for individual tax planning.
**Why Rich People Care**: Saving 1%–2% annually on taxes can mean millions over time for a high-net-worth individual.
---
### 5. **Status and Networking** - **Social Capital**: Investing in prestigious funds like Citadel or Bridgewater signals status among the elite. It’s a “club” where rich people connect with other rich people, managers, and opportunities (e.g., private deals). - **VOO/QQQ Perception**: Index funds are seen as pedestrian—accessible to anyone with a brokerage account, lacking the exclusivity of a $25 million hedge fund minimum.
**Why Rich People Care**: For billionaires, the intangible benefits (relationships, deal flow) can outweigh a few percentage points of return.
---
### 6. **Behavioral and Psychological Factors** - **Active Management Appeal**: Wealthy investors often prefer “doing something” over passively riding the market. Hedge funds’ active strategies feed this bias, even if returns don’t always justify it. - **Overconfidence**: The rich may believe they can pick winners (e.g., Medallion) or that their advisors can, despite evidence of widespread underperformance. - **VOO/QQQ Simplicity**: Passive investing feels “too basic” for some, lacking the sophistication they associate with their wealth.
**Why Rich People Care**: Ego and the allure of complexity drive decisions, even when simpler options like VOO might suffice.
---
### 7. **Institutional Mandates** - **Pensions and Endowments**: Many rich people’s wealth flows through institutions (e.g., family offices, trusts) that allocate to hedge funds for diversification or contractual reasons, even if returns lag. - **Example**: Yale’s endowment uses hedge funds heavily (David Swensen’s model), influencing high-net-worth strategies.
**Why Rich People Care**: Their advisors or trustees push hedge funds as part of a “prudent” portfolio, despite costs.
---
### The Fee Paradox - **High Fees**: Hedge funds charge ~2% management + 20% performance fees, eroding returns. A fund grossing 12% might net 8%–9%, below VOO’s 10.5%. Yet, the rich tolerate this for the reasons above. - **VOO/QQQ Advantage**: Ultra-low fees (0.03% and 0.20%) maximize net returns, but lack the tailored benefits hedge funds offer.
---
### Conclusion Rich people invest in hedge funds not just for returns, but for protection, exclusivity, diversification, tax perks, and prestige—goals that VOO and QQQ can’t fully meet. While most hedge funds underperform (e.g., HFRI’s 7.5% vs. VOO’s 10.5% over decades), the few stars (Medallion, Wellington) and non-return benefits keep the wealthy engaged. For every Medallion (+39%), there’s a dozen mediocrities, but the rich bet on finding the needle in the haystack—or value the side perks enough to overlook the odds.
If you’d like a deeper dive into any of these factors (e.g., tax math or specific fund stats), let me know!
大盘差太多。
还是老老实实投大盘。
On average, hedge funds posted a 9.83% gain to investors in 2024, according to HFRI Fund Weighted Composite index, with positive results in equity, macro, event-driven and relative value strategies. That compares with a 23.3% return of the S&P 500 (. SPX) 。
Hedge fund的 MD或者QT 拿走了。
包括大的退休基金，主权基金，捐赠基金 （endowment）。
唯一说得通的解释，就是OPM （other people's money)。也就是说，这些基金的管理者，最大化自己的短期收入, 而不是基金的长期回报。
如果买Apple亏了，客户不会怪你，如果买APP亏了，客户就要解释了，虽然APP去年涨了好多倍。
深信算命的是什么教育水平的人？管理大HF， PE， Endowment的是什么教育水平的人？
You’re absolutely right that many hedge funds underperform broad market indices like VOO (S&P 500) and QQQ (Nasdaq-100) over the long term, especially after fees. Studies, like those from the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, show that hedge funds have averaged around 6%–8% annualized returns over the past 20 years, compared to VOO’s ~10.5% and QQQ’s ~12.5%. Yet, wealthy individuals and institutions continue to invest billions in hedge funds. Here’s why, broken down into key reasons:
---
### 1. **Downside Protection and Risk Management**
- **Hedge Funds’ Goal**: Unlike index funds, which fully track market ups and downs, many hedge funds aim to “hedge” against losses using strategies like short-selling, derivatives, or diversification across uncorrelated assets. This can provide stability during market downturns.
- **Example**: Citadel Wellington’s +38.1% in 2022 vs. VOO’s -18.1% and QQQ’s -32.5% shows how some hedge funds thrive when indices tank. Rich investors value this protection, especially during recessions or crashes like 2008 (though Wellington lost -55% then, others like Medallion have avoided such pitfalls).
- **VOO/QQQ Weakness**: Index funds offer no defense against bear markets, exposing investors to full drawdowns (e.g., S&P 500’s -37% in 2008).
**Why Rich People Care**: Wealth preservation often trumps wealth growth for the ultra-rich. Losing 30% of a $100 million portfolio hurts more than missing a 20% rally.
---
### 2. **Access to Exceptional Performers**
- **Top-Tier Outliers**: Elite funds like Renaissance’s Medallion (~39% net annualized) or Citadel Wellington (~15%–20%) consistently beat VOO and QQQ, even after fees. These funds are rare and often closed to new investors, but the rich seek them out for their alpha (market-beating returns).
- **Exclusivity**: Medallion, for instance, is only available to Renaissance insiders, while Citadel’s funds require massive minimum investments (e.g., $10 million+). High net worth gives access to these “unicorns” that average investors can’t touch.
- **VOO/QQQ Limitation**: Index funds offer market returns (beta), not alpha. The rich chase the few funds that deliver outsized gains.
**Why Rich People Care**: A 39% return (Medallion) turns $10 million into $13.9 million in one year, vs. $12.5 million with QQQ’s 25%. Over decades, this compounds massively.
---
### 3. **Diversification Beyond Equities**
- **Hedge Fund Strategies**: Many funds invest in asset classes beyond stocks—private equity, real estate, commodities, currencies, or distressed debt—reducing reliance on equity market performance.
- **Example**: A macro fund might profit from currency swings or bond yields, uncorrelated with VOO/QQQ, which are 100% equity-based.
- **VOO/QQQ Limitation**: Both are tied to U.S. stocks (S&P 500 or Nasdaq-100), leaving investors exposed to a single market’s risks (e.g., U.S. recession).
**Why Rich People Care**: With larger portfolios, diversification lowers systemic risk. A $50 million portfolio in VOO could drop $15 million in a crash; hedge funds might cushion that.
---
### 4. **Tax Efficiency and Sophisticated Strategies**
- **Tax Advantages**: Hedge funds often use offshore structures (e.g., Cayman Islands) or strategies like tax-loss harvesting to minimize capital gains taxes, which hit index fund investors harder on realized gains.
- **Custom Solutions**: For the ultra-rich, funds can tailor strategies (e.g., concentrated bets, leverage) to specific goals, unlike the one-size-fits-all VOO/QQQ.
- **VOO/QQQ Downside**: Dividends and rebalancing trigger taxable events, and there’s no flexibility for individual tax planning.
**Why Rich People Care**: Saving 1%–2% annually on taxes can mean millions over time for a high-net-worth individual.
---
### 5. **Status and Networking**
- **Social Capital**: Investing in prestigious funds like Citadel or Bridgewater signals status among the elite. It’s a “club” where rich people connect with other rich people, managers, and opportunities (e.g., private deals).
- **VOO/QQQ Perception**: Index funds are seen as pedestrian—accessible to anyone with a brokerage account, lacking the exclusivity of a $25 million hedge fund minimum.
**Why Rich People Care**: For billionaires, the intangible benefits (relationships, deal flow) can outweigh a few percentage points of return.
---
### 6. **Behavioral and Psychological Factors**
- **Active Management Appeal**: Wealthy investors often prefer “doing something” over passively riding the market. Hedge funds’ active strategies feed this bias, even if returns don’t always justify it.
- **Overconfidence**: The rich may believe they can pick winners (e.g., Medallion) or that their advisors can, despite evidence of widespread underperformance.
- **VOO/QQQ Simplicity**: Passive investing feels “too basic” for some, lacking the sophistication they associate with their wealth.
**Why Rich People Care**: Ego and the allure of complexity drive decisions, even when simpler options like VOO might suffice.
---
### 7. **Institutional Mandates**
- **Pensions and Endowments**: Many rich people’s wealth flows through institutions (e.g., family offices, trusts) that allocate to hedge funds for diversification or contractual reasons, even if returns lag.
- **Example**: Yale’s endowment uses hedge funds heavily (David Swensen’s model), influencing high-net-worth strategies.
**Why Rich People Care**: Their advisors or trustees push hedge funds as part of a “prudent” portfolio, despite costs.
---
### The Fee Paradox
- **High Fees**: Hedge funds charge ~2% management + 20% performance fees, eroding returns. A fund grossing 12% might net 8%–9%, below VOO’s 10.5%. Yet, the rich tolerate this for the reasons above.
- **VOO/QQQ Advantage**: Ultra-low fees (0.03% and 0.20%) maximize net returns, but lack the tailored benefits hedge funds offer.
---
### Conclusion
Rich people invest in hedge funds not just for returns, but for protection, exclusivity, diversification, tax perks, and prestige—goals that VOO and QQQ can’t fully meet. While most hedge funds underperform (e.g., HFRI’s 7.5% vs. VOO’s 10.5% over decades), the few stars (Medallion, Wellington) and non-return benefits keep the wealthy engaged. For every Medallion (+39%), there’s a dozen mediocrities, but the rich bet on finding the needle in the haystack—or value the side perks enough to overlook the odds.
If you’d like a deeper dive into any of these factors (e.g., tax math or specific fund stats), let me know!