If you have stocks to cover the short calls, your shares
will be called at $150, plus the spread of $10, you basically sold them at $160. If you do not have the shares to cover, you could have huge loss if price rise sharply past 160. On the other hand, if you have cash reserve to buy the stock at $125, the spread of $15 will reduce the cost to $110 per share. If the stock goes sharply lower than 110 however, you could have big loss as well.
我估计英伟达在财报前会摸到140附近去补缺口,我准备
1: 建立 ratio call spread 140-150 (1:2) at $0 credit/debit, 同时建立 put spread 140/125 (1:1), 大概 $4 debit.
2: 当英伟达财报前波动到135, 再一次卖出125 put, 估计$3-$4 credit。这样和#1的put spread 在一起就成 ratio put spread 140/125 (1:2) at $0 credit/debit.
财报后如果英伟达涨,最坏结果是我的1/3仓位被160卖掉。如果英伟达只涨到150,这1/3仓位多赚10点。 如果英伟达掉,1/3的仓位在125以上的损失都被ratio put spread 保护。如果大掉,最坏结果是在110又买入1/3的仓位。
整个组合cost $0 premium
还好没亏钱
有人公布她这个持仓时是在55附近。
ratio spread本质是卖方,因为卖出的期权数量比买入的多。这就要承担暴涨暴跌时的巨大风险(虽然发生的概率很小)。如果没有跟股票结合的应对计划(例如暴涨时接受股票被call走,暴跌时有足够cash按计划价格买入),这个组合的理论max loss是unlimited。
对期权不是很熟练的坛友不建议跟三心大侠这么做。 如果想练手看看效果,建议只做很少数量的合约,不要让账户处于太大的风险敞口。
1. 为什么不直接上ratio put spread?
2. 如果一直不到140,plan B?
从下面的周线图可以看到, 去年九月的上涨开始到现在, 成交量就比以前大幅下降. 意味着, 没有更多大机构参与NVDA的交易. 观望还是不再有兴趣?
市场在5浪中交易量肯定是小于3浪的时候
英伟达的机构持仓还是一直增加的(你可以在fintel.io 上看到),不过我们一直说过,CapEx spending of hundred of billions by Hyperscalers 不可能永远30-40%的增长下去,所以对英伟达不能指望它像以前那样
小股票容易翻倍啊
Eventually, bigTech must catch up. Otherwise, there is a possiblity big guys are secretly leaving the market.
If we want to see QQQ up by 20% this year, big7 has to catch up sometime. It is ok for them to lag for now
徒手画了一下 :)
这只是option position的P&L,如果要一起考虑股票的p&l,就跟y=x的直线叠加。
叠加以后可以看到, 150以上整体收益就限制住了(曲线变水平),同时125以下亏损会加速(下降曲线更陡)。
但别忘了,当小概率的黑天鹅事件发生时,这个组合是没保护的,也就是风险无穷大
will be called at $150, plus the spread of $10, you basically sold them at $160. If you do not have the shares to cover, you could have huge loss if price rise sharply past 160. On the other hand, if you have cash reserve to buy the stock at $125, the spread of $15 will reduce the cost to $110 per share. If the stock goes sharply lower than 110 however, you could have big loss as well.