#1 will 100% be an issue within 3 years unless NVDA can find new product segments. I know data center business really well.
It is virtually impossible for NVDA to grow its current data center revenue 45-50% year over year for 3 more years + maintain 73% gross margin. This is determined by law of physics.
They must extend into a new market segment AND dominate. To be clear, I am not saying that NVDA can not dominate new market segement. I am saying we need to watch this closely and see the evidence of it.
https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/2002405.html
投资NVDA比投资那些不靠谱的烧钱的startup 强多了，哈哈，比OpenAI， xAI都强
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BEvbYrWlTRot132C6iTs9A
1: 饼有多大，明年后年比现在的大多少 --- Market size, revenue opportunity, and growth potential
2: 有几家公司在卖饼，客户愿不愿意开着车1小时来买你的饼 -- This is about having sustained competitive advantage you mentioned
3: 谁是这家公司的大厨？ --- Do you believe in the leader of the company.
关于NVDA， 1-3年内，#1 is the only thing I would watch for to make my investment decision.
Beyond 3 years, #2 could become an issue
On #3, for as long as Jense is CEO, I have no concern
#1 will 100% be an issue within 3 years unless NVDA can find new product segments. I know data center business really well.
It is virtually impossible for NVDA to grow its current data center revenue 45-50% year over year for 3 more years + maintain 73% gross margin. This is determined by law of physics.
They must extend into a new market segment AND dominate. To be clear, I am not saying that NVDA can not dominate new market segement. I am saying we need to watch this closely and see the evidence of it.