言归正转 --- 明天的非农报告至关重要，有可能影响下一步走势

下面是我的瞎猜：

报告太热： Payroll 大于180K， 失业率低于4.1%，每小时平均收入月增幅高于0.04%

           Inflation fear:   SPY/QQQ/IWM down. QQQ will complete C wave and find support around 485-490. 20年国债会向5.5%爬去

报告太冷： Payroll 小于100K， 失业率高于4.3%，每小时平均收入月增幅0.03%

           recession fear:  SPY/QQQ/IWM may rebound initially, 20Y 国债回调到4.5%. But QQQ will eventually come back to test support at 485-490, due to recession worry

报告正好： Payroll 100-180K， 失业率4.1% 到4.2%，每小时平均收入月增幅0.03%

            Goldilock: Market rally. We may see QQQ go back to 531 eventually. However, whether we can go to new ATH depends on future economic data and Trump policy, as well Mag7 earning starting end of Jan. 20Y 国债开始小幅回调

 

赞！ 谢分析指导！

随着AI应用的深入，失业率很可能升高，所以驱逐非法移民和降息减税应该是川普在任的主旋律。

Disagree. If yesterday’s ADP report indicated anything for

Market respond to Tomorrow's payroll report . Less inflation will help the market .we don't need worry recession just yet 

好的。一定会关注。

我估计就业率下降，inflation 压力上升。

wage monthly gain % will be closely watched

感觉数据as expected :)

Yahoo Finance 网上的猜测：“Economists expect that job growth last mont

Economists expect last month was solid — but relatively tame — a

Econmonth was solid — but relatively tame — at 153,000 and that

难道不该等几个月后的校正回归？