AVGO 2025 EPS 是6.2， 2026 EPS 是7.3。 But I am expecting wall street to revise these estimate up in next few weeks due to "significantly accelerated XPU outlook" --- CEO is now forecasting 60B to 90B XPU market by 2027. AVGO 现在全年的XPU revenue 也不过是12B
I expect the above EPS to be adjusted by 10% uplift at minimal, which gives us 6.8 and 8 respectively.
If we apply a moderate PE of 35, we have $238 (which is roughly where AVGO is traded today) for end of 2024, and $280 for end of 2025.
More importantly, their 2027 business will be even stronger, so wall street will look at this as the next growth story in AI chip.
60-90B is market size annually, and AVGO is clear leader
So, I am expecting AVGO to grab 2/3 of the market as leader usually has the pricing power and scale to drive revenue and profit.
At this point, the focus is not to be precise, but to recognize the fundamental shift of business. This is why instituion buyers all jump in big time today. We need to think and act the way instituion buyers do, not the way as retails.
I did the similar analysis on Tesla after its last quarter's earning report and urged everyone to buy on dip. It is also due to the fudamental shift of their business. No one listened :(
有AVGO的千万不要因为今天大涨就卖掉。现在想的应该是Buy on Dip。
AVGO 2025 EPS 是6.2， 2026 EPS 是7.3。 But I am expecting wall street to revise these estimate up in next few weeks due to "significantly accelerated XPU outlook" --- CEO is now forecasting 60B to 90B XPU market by 2027. AVGO 现在全年的XPU revenue 也不过是12B
I expect the above EPS to be adjusted by 10% uplift at minimal, which gives us 6.8 and 8 respectively.
If we apply a moderate PE of 35, we have $238 (which is roughly where AVGO is traded today) for end of 2024, and $280 for end of 2025.
More importantly, their 2027 business will be even stronger, so wall street will look at this as the next growth story in AI chip.
三心很厚道，标题写不下，就换个标题，不会骗点击率。
并且，这个 60-90B是 SAM, 不是它的 revenue.
它的 三个主要客户是： Goog, Meta, ByteDance吗？
两个新客户是 Apple, OpenAI？这两个还没有算进去？
So, I am expecting AVGO to grab 2/3 of the market as leader usually has the pricing power and scale to drive revenue and profit.
At this point, the focus is not to be precise, but to recognize the fundamental shift of business. This is why instituion buyers all jump in big time today. We need to think and act the way instituion buyers do, not the way as retails.
I did the similar analysis on Tesla after its last quarter's earning report and urged everyone to buy on dip. It is also due to the fudamental shift of their business. No one listened :(