错过了PLTR,这个小公司是不是一个机会?

s
study169
楼主 (文学城)

BBAI 算PLTR的小兄弟,跟PLTR有合作,接政府部门大项目。PLTR的大幅度溢价增长是不是来自于在政府部门应用中的垄断地位?如果是,BBAI最近的突破有可能追赶PLTR。唯一的缺点,增速比较慢。但是政府采购总是试图多样化以增加可靠性,几个传统国防公司的AI进展缓慢,小的AI国防公司容易成为收购对象。以AI的发展趋势,政府在AI上面的投资只有加速再加速。

下面的总结来自chatGPT,如果让它用中文总结,市值变成了5亿美元。大模型的逻辑推理能力还是值得怀疑。

BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI) is a company specializing in artificial intelligence (AI) and analytics solutions, catering primarily to defense, intelligence, and commercial customers. Here’s a summary:

Company Overview Industry: Artificial Intelligence and Analytics Key Products: AI-driven analytics and cyber engineering solutions Target Customers: Defense and intelligence sectors, as well as commercial enterprises Financial Performance Annual Revenue: Approximately $155.16 million in 2023, reflecting a slight growth of 0.1%. Profitability: The company is currently operating at a loss. Market Capitalization: Around $717 million (as of December 2024). Business Highlights Focuses on applying AI technologies to complex data analysis, enabling data-driven decision-making for clients. Predominantly serves government contracts, particularly in defense and security sectors. Future Outlook

BigBear.ai aims to improve profitability by enhancing its AI platforms, expanding its commercial customer base, and maintaining its competitive edge in government markets.

For more detailed insights, refer to its latest financial reports or investor relations updates.

s
study169
BBAI是慢行者网友今年早些时候提到过,慢行者网友从21年就是PLTR的最坚定支持者。
B
BrightLine
I just asked ChatGPT. Can't rely on Defense. Spent 170B

The Department of Defense (DoD) budget for Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 is set at $886.3 billion, as authorized by the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY 2024, which President Joe Biden signed into law on December 22, 2023.

Wikipedia

Key Allocations in the FY 2024 DoD Budget:

Military Personnel: The budget includes a 5.2% pay raise for service members, marking one of the most significant increases in recent years.

Defense.gov

Research and Development: A record $145 billion is allocated for research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) to advance military technologies and maintain a competitive edge.

Defense.gov

Procurement: $170 billion is designated for procurement, the largest allocation in history, to enhance combat capabilities across all domains.

B
BrightLine
They can't spend much on software purchase. It's commercial

who counts...

s
study169
怎么解释最近的PLTR, Space X ,无人机热?都与政府花费有关

现代的战争胜负与AI息息相关,得AI者得天下

三心三意
稍微纠正一下,PLTR目前大涨最主要得原因是它在commercial 市场上的增速远远超过预期
桃花好运
还会涨多少?都没机会加仓
B
BrightLine
That makes more sense... Commercial is the future.

There are only 170B in defence budget and they have to buy weapons and others too.

B
BrightLine
SpaceX's future is more than just NASA budget. Starlink,

defence, commerical satelliate launch, etc.

s
study169
Commercial growth is higher, but government revenue

In the third quarter of 2024, Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) reported robust financial performance, with detailed revenue figures across its key segments:

Total Revenue: $725.5 million, a 30% year-over-year increase.

still dorminates. The recent price gain of 50%  is after Trump won the election. 

Segment Revenue Breakdown:

U.S. Operations:

Total U.S. Revenue: $499 million, up 44% year-over-year. U.S. Commercial Revenue: $179 million, a 54% increase. U.S. Government Revenue: $320 million, a 40% rise.

International Operations:

Total International Revenue: $226.5 million. International Commercial Revenue: $138.2 million. International Government Revenue: $88.3 million.

These figures highlight Palantir's significant growth, particularly within the U.S. market, driven by increased demand for its AI-driven solutions across both commercial and government sectors.

Note: All financial data is sourced from Palantir's Q3 2024 earnings report.

慢想者
技术上看,突破2023年二月的高点$5.2是只争朝夕的事,之后可能会有些回调。跟PLTR似的,要拿的住才行,除非

本来就是想赚个波段就走人。

c
cfbingbuzy001
very low gross margin. Far away from PLTR chaser.
c
cfbingbuzy001
It's both. Look at the recent partners.
三心三意
I think you guys misunderstand my point

Stock price is always about the expectation. PLTR, since its formation of the company, has very strong government ties and investors know that.

The biggest doubt on the growth prospect of this company is: can PLTR replicate its success in government space and bring it into commerical space. PLTR stock price was penalized in 2023, even with great growth in government contracts, mainly due to below-expectation growth in commerical space

The recent skyrocketing of PLTR price, in larger part, was due to its earning "far-exceed" expectation in commercial sector.

三心三意
Not recommending now, I plan buy more hedge at 76 on Monday

Even my most optimistc estimate has the stock price valued at 50, lol. But who knows, market is crazy. So, paying some small hedge premium and let it run. 

B
BrightLine
If they can penetrate commercial, then worth the price
c
cfbingbuzy001
Just a matter of time

Only now investors attended to it. Many investors in another forums were correct in buying it when it went public two years ago. They may not have been holding it.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/15/palantir-ceo-at-trump-tech-summit-raises-red-flags.html

There is a reason that their CEO was invited to the summit with other big guns.