Looking into QQQ's elliot wave pattern carefully this weekend, very high probablity, we are going through the diagonal finsh pattern of the wave 5. To see this clearly I posted two charts below
Chart 1 is the offical definition of this wave 5 diagonal finishing pattern, represented by the red line 1-2-3-4-5 in the chart (ignore the green line as that is the outter super cycle).
Chart 2 is the actual QQQ chart, and yellow line represening this diagonal pattern. We are roughly in 1-2-3 stage, and I plotted the likely path for 4 and 5.
What does this mean to QQQ? Most likely, the final target is 520-540. And there are two paths to get there
Path 1: 493 is the high of wave 3 and QQQ immedaitely makes a wave 4 move next week, before climbing to 520-540. For this to happen, QQQ need to break support at 485, and the target for wave 4 would be 470 where it will bounce back and race to 520-540
Path 2: QQQ continues to climb and goes to 505, the current 52w high, before it finishes wave 3. From there, QQQ is likely to make wave 4 move, back to 480, before bouncing and racing to 520-540.
My guess is that path 2 is more likely, because in path 1, it means QQQ has to make correction immediately and could then be on its way to ATH before election taking place. This is not likely.
Path 2, on the other hand, means QQQ plays around in its correction wave 4 in Oct, and then makes wave 5 push. In order to do this, it first needs to go higher a bit to "eat the time buffer" before election.
To net this out: if QQQ immediately falls below 485, 470 is likely a support point to add position. If QQQ immeidately goes back to 505, might want to reduce position there to wait for wave 4
Looking into QQQ's elliot wave pattern carefully this weekend, very high probablity, we are going through the diagonal finsh pattern of the wave 5. To see this clearly I posted two charts below
Chart 1 is the offical definition of this wave 5 diagonal finishing pattern, represented by the red line 1-2-3-4-5 in the chart (ignore the green line as that is the outter super cycle).
Chart 2 is the actual QQQ chart, and yellow line represening this diagonal pattern. We are roughly in 1-2-3 stage, and I plotted the likely path for 4 and 5.
What does this mean to QQQ? Most likely, the final target is 520-540. And there are two paths to get there
Path 1: 493 is the high of wave 3 and QQQ immedaitely makes a wave 4 move next week, before climbing to 520-540. For this to happen, QQQ need to break support at 485, and the target for wave 4 would be 470 where it will bounce back and race to 520-540
Path 2: QQQ continues to climb and goes to 505, the current 52w high, before it finishes wave 3. From there, QQQ is likely to make wave 4 move, back to 480, before bouncing and racing to 520-540.
My guess is that path 2 is more likely, because in path 1, it means QQQ has to make correction immediately and could then be on its way to ATH before election taking place. This is not likely.
Path 2, on the other hand, means QQQ plays around in its correction wave 4 in Oct, and then makes wave 5 push. In order to do this, it first needs to go higher a bit to "eat the time buffer" before election.
To net this out: if QQQ immediately falls below 485, 470 is likely a support point to add position. If QQQ immeidately goes back to 505, might want to reduce position there to wait for wave 4
I have some fund allocated to buy if it dips...
some stocks I have hold for more than a decade, but I "am" not going to watch my portoflio dropping 50% and do nothing
还有一些现金，逢低就买