In response to your 2nd question: inverted yield curve
In the past recessions, an inverted yield curve is considered one of the most reliable indicators of an impending recession, often has a lead time of 6 to 24 months. Recessions always happen after inverted turn to positive (upward sloping). We still have inverted yield curve, therefore GDP is still positive. Bear markets start before recessions start, and bull markets start before the recession get confirmed.
这几天最热炒的话题也许就是Sahm法则了。说的是如果三个月失业率移动平均值超过过去十二个月最低值的0.5个百分点，衰退就发生了。自1950年以来的回测，没有例外。
第一，正如Powell在上周三答记者问时所说，Sahm法则是一个统计学法则，不是一个经济学规律。凡是统计学法则都有例外。过去没有例外，下一次会不会有例外？重要的是由于样本数据太少，很难一锤定音。
第二，同样做为有限样本的另一个预测衰退的统计学法则是收益率曲线倒挂预示衰退，过去几十年共有三次例外。这次倒挂很久了，GDP 2.8 ％。
第三，就算Sahm法则有效，也不过是个滞后指标。过去大多数时候这个法则触发的时候，股市已经触底或者离底很近了。只是最近两次离底部比较远。
总之，市场回调本来就在预期之中。我一点也不会否认统计学观察的重要性，但也不会一个筋盲信噪动。
一概不做投资建议。
更多我的博客文章>>> Sahm法则三个疑问 财富自由的三个台阶 欣欣向荣 IWM跟踪 7/26/2024 更新 人生一条单行道
股市长期向好，向上的趋势：一百年未变！
无论是经济大衰退，冷战，热战，石油危机，房地产危机，Covid 19 等等，
都无法改变死皮近乎完美的直线上升！
看来大概率是要涨的！
啊哈哈哈。。。。。。。。。。。。。
In the past recessions, an inverted yield curve is considered one of the most reliable indicators of an impending recession, often has a lead time of 6 to 24 months. Recessions always happen after inverted turn to positive (upward sloping). We still have inverted yield curve, therefore GDP is still positive. Bear markets start before recessions start, and bull markets start before the recession get confirmed.