The problem is that no one can measure what craziness can do
At the time you think it is crazy enough and you are out happily. Then .... it gets twice more crazy. Then you are likely, damn, I need to get back in. LOL... If in 1939, you tell others that Hilter is going to bring the entire world down, no one would believe you. For the same reason, never under estimate how crazy people can be. For that simple reason, you'd be better lucky than good. :-)
就是出现2000年的泡沫，指数大幅增长，概念股鸡犬升天。
破裂后会很多年起不来。
好在如果这种条件下，资产应该大幅增长，一半也够用了，剩下一半让它去。
若在2000年退休，会卖掉所有equities，紧接着再每月定投进入股市；
若在牛市退休，会留下所有的equities在股市；
很难预测退休后股市是牛市还是熊市，中庸一下，一退休就卖掉一半的equities，留一半equities在股市，然后用卖equities换来的cash再慢慢每月定投股市。
At the time you think it is crazy enough and you are out happily. Then .... it gets twice more crazy. Then you are likely, damn, I need to get back in. LOL... If in 1939, you tell others that Hilter is going to bring the entire world down, no one would believe you. For the same reason, never under estimate how crazy people can be. For that simple reason, you'd be better lucky than good. :-)
That is how Newton got broke.