Dirty Mathematics

r
renqiulan
楼主 (文学城)

Dirty mathematics makes a mockery out of clean energy on which electric vehicles (EVs) depend.

China puts together a typical Tesla lithium-ion battery on the coal-fired power grid. That alone releases 13,500 kilograms of CO2 emissions equivalent to the carbon pollution released by a conventional gasoline-powered car traveling 33,000 miles. This is a carbon-intensive manufacturing process, whichever way you slice it.

Also, most EVs are out and about during the day, right? That means solar-generated electricity won't be available for recharging them when nightfall comes. If and only if you happen to live in a solar panel-covered desert, then you may be able to reserve enough recharging power after sunset. Now, don't tell me that you have already set up a wind turbine in your backyard.

More than likely, an EV dealer's sale pitch is meant to cover up the devil that is always in the details. Clean-and-green buyers beware.


Author: renqiulan

……

To research this subject, one might want to start with the following MIT report:https://meche.mit.edu/news-media/how-much-co2-emitted-manufacturing-batteries

r
renqiulan
Don't take offense if you're driving an EV.
s
shuier
You kept your promise to post a piece on this subject.
r
renqiulan
Could I afford not to? Hahaha!
s
shuier
You're right to point out the dirty manufacturing process.
s
shuier
None taken.
r
renqiulan
Whew!
r
renqiulan
To do otherwise is to be an ostrich.
s
shuier
I like that. Qiulan, you're so cute.
r
renqiulan
Are you not?
寒苇
You guys are still up!
s
shuier
Are you not?
寒苇
It's Saturday night, isn't?
r
renqiulan
Wei Wei must have a question for me.
寒苇
You bet. Qiulan, are you against EVs?
r
renqiulan
No, no and no! I'm a clean-and-green guy.
s
shuier
Qiulan is against dirty mathematics.
r
renqiulan
Yes, EV manufacturers have a little dirty secret.
寒苇
And what's that?
r
renqiulan
Green technology as we know it is not very green.
s
shuier
My problem with EVs is that they're sold on a false claim.
寒苇
Which is?
r
renqiulan
This is their false claim: EVs are clean products.
s
shuier
They just shifted the dirty manufacturing process to China.
l
lovecat08
+100
r
renqiulan
They still are.
L
LYJiang
三人夜话电动车。听后不止长知识,还觉得某国家可怜,替美国钜富承受污染环境的代价。
r
renqiulan
先生说的,确是事实。原因不消说,还是要依赖美国市场,还是要赚取美元。
L
LYJiang
俺要见周公去。各位晚安!
r
renqiulan
先生晚安!
l
lovecat08
终於有个中文出现。这儿是午夜英文論坛。香港午夜煲话粥!
r
renqiulan
好,宣布散会!
s
shuier
我们散会了,猫姐才驾到。晚安!
l
lovecat08
秋兰,不练中文了,晚安!
r
renqiulan
猫姐不是夜猫子,晚安!
唐宋韵
秋兰,你谈的事情比较广泛。一个具体问题,即使用solar panel和EV,我有下面的information供参考 --

-- 关于EV夜间充电的问题,我可以给你部分的回答 -- 工业用电主要在白天。传统上,为了满足白天高峰用电,电厂的capacity必须满足其需要。可是夜间用电少,电厂有很多idle。现在很多的人家既有solar panel,又用EV (我也如此),于是白天家里发的电进入grid,夜间从grid免费充电。电厂白天的供电从千家万户的solar panel那里得到帮助(电厂因此burn much less coal),夜间电厂的idle减少,它们发电给EV充电。我本来以为电厂不喜欢居民家里install solar panel,后来得知因为上面的原因,他们其实欢迎太阳能。

-- 就我个人来讲,我自己的solar panel在过去一年里产了14000千瓦时的电力,它的超过我室内的用电需要,于是用多余的电给EV充电,大大减少了gas (for cars) 和 natural gas (for heating)的消耗。至少在这个局部,math 是很清楚的,也是应该提倡的。它跟China, Tesla, California 等都无关。14000是来自太阳的能源,它减少了化石能源的使用,进而减少了CO2的排放。

 

r
renqiulan
You're still up. The power you tap into may neither be...

clean nor green at its source. That's just a secondary issue, though. The No. 1 issue is the very very dirty battery-manufacturing process. Also, mining lithium is by no means clean or green. EV drivers are end users. They may not care how their EVs come by or where they come from. But if we are truly serious about clean and green technology, then we need to take a closer look at how and where our EVs were produced. If you can, use my MIT link and take a deeper dive in the EV issue. Goodnight!

老键
Misguided and ill-informed

It's true that at the current renewable energy penetration of the grid, making an EV generates much more carbon emissions than making an ICE car. However, the carbon emissions from operating an EV are much smaller than those from operating its ICE counterpart even at the current grid emission intensity. Overall, taking the cradle-to-grave lifecycle, an EV will generate 28-64% lower emissions than an ICE car in the US. This is from a study by Ford Motor in 2022 :)

花似鹿葱
学习了!这方面真不懂。你们有开电动车吗?
A
AP33912
中国大池厂在东海边的宁德,坏气70%会顺东海漂(飘)到世界各地,最终抵美:)
a
ahniu
green 就是大忽悠

https://youtu.be/Jsff3sNDOFc(发自我的文学城离线浏览器)
A
AP33912
宁德市的电池供国内特斯拉,上海特斯拉现在出口欧亚,以后改--宁得市?获得世界电动汽车占有冠军:)
A
AP33912
我今年开了一个多月,冷天耗能特别大,电池还是关键。
r
renqiulan
Ford's EV sale pitch is what you're buying. Enjoy it.
r
renqiulan
葱姐,周日早安!曾经有过一部EV,捐赠了。待制造过程真正符合环保标准,充电站基建一如加油站后再考虑EV 。
r
renqiulan
对。谢谢AP! 未来或许属于EV, 目前电池等等的制造过程太污染环境了。也因为这样,更因为成本,所以委予PRC作原产地。
r
renqiulan
100%同意。美商走的是“法律缝隙”,PRC唯美汇是图。
r
renqiulan
谢谢ahniu!抄下油管接链了。EV 不 EV, 最终由消费者决定,起码在较自由的世界是如此的。
r
renqiulan
他们紧随“中央”指示。
L
LYJiang
福特嘛,卖花赞花香。消费者为自身利益、环境保护,应尽量客观地了解EV正反两方的论据,兼听则明。
唐宋韵
I understand what you mean. My "math" is very simple and

straightforward --  在目前情况下,如果EV的电来自coal-fired power plant,那么使用EV的意义是大打折扣或者值得怀疑的。然而,如果EV的电力来自家中的solar panel (我的情况),那用EV的优点远远超过它的问题。(用目前的技术)生产电池尽管dirty,break down到一辆车、一个电池,它造成的污染依然是有限的、较少。而这一辆车如果用solar panel的电,它就如同一个10-15年的perpetum mobile (saving ~15000 liters of gas in its lifetime) .  这种情况下no brainer.

了解math model的人都知道,如果它的variable太多且不确定,结论就不靠谱,结果就是公说公有理婆说婆有理。我避免这种无谓的争论。

我不是一个green energy的热心推崇者。我认为RATIONALITY非常重要。关于solar energy 和EV,我力求减少我自己的“math model”中的变量数,然后得出相对可靠的结论,并采取行动。

唐宋韵
先生所说极是,“正反两方面”/ open-minded 非常重要。
颤音
舞文弄墨的人里难得见到这么清醒头脑的,大赞
r
renqiulan
谢谢颤音!大家都有各自的观点与角度,真理越辩越明,更希望越辩越文明。请颤音常来,发帖交流。再谢!
r
renqiulan
My point: Doing math dishonestly is doing dirty math. Thanks