Interest rate 上升，treasury bond price 下跌，会造成 liquidity issue, 比如repo market
Reduce balance sheet会造成cash shortage
这都会造成股票，地产市场大跌
而美国消费者的信心和购买力，绝大部分从中获得的
Bond 价格下跌，为啥会造成liquidity issue?
比如你需要10个bond作为collateral
现在你要13个，repo market就会渐渐失去流动性
资金流动不起来，经济就死了
这不但影响美国经济，欧洲美元市场也失去流动性，全球经济就垮了
When real interest rate becomes positive
CPI is at 8.x%
You raise interest rate to 3%
Still a big negative interest rate
有用吗?
Fed敢像80年的Fed Chairman Paul Volcker
加息加到18%
no， 20%
如果出现这样的情况，我所有流动资金买Fed 10-year treasury, I am settled for rest of my life.
这更增加了问题的复杂性
今年the best asset you want to hold is CASH
When liquidity dried up
现在的政治形势，迫使Fed must print price down
I am 100% certain that politician's 1st and utmost important priority is
Get reelected
I am 99% certain administration has a lot of influence on Fed
@Jy101 老大，我就是一个loser, 星期六晚上，还在谈经济学，没地方，没人一起嗨皮
The politician's way NOT to get re-elected is high consumer inflation
They have 0 chance if consumer inflation stays at 8%,9%
Janet will call Jeremy, we need to do something
Jeremy will say
Ok, I will do it, but if we bring down stock market and economy, how can you get reelected?
Heard of catch 22?
My utmost priority and best investment idea this year
Is long volatility
If you are an savvy investor and know how to do it, there is lots of money to be made
Worst scenario, stock market drop 50% in 2 months
This will destroy economy
Best scenario is fine tune interest rate so that
Consumer inflation goes from 8% to 7% to 6.5%
Politicians can say that see we are trending down
And stock market is grinding down, lose 40% in 2 years
This will make lots of weak hands sell their stocks at bottom or near bottom
这是拜登政府和联储会的博弈
Fed and politicians will choose 2nd option
Remember that will help them to get re-elected
Trump 4T, Biden 1.9T covid-19 relief package, 1.85T build back better act. Did I miss anything?
Balance sheet from 900B to 4.5T, how much to reduce?
It's about 8.5 trillion now
Market, I mean bond market
Especially short term bond market (up to 5 years treasury)
Has accepted and priced 4 rate hikes this year
But equity market participants have not accepted that
Once they realize and accept
Price will go down
So want I said and what 花姐said still are still intact now
一篇文章， sept 2021, 2-4T in repo market. In 2019, took 1T out, repo market dysfunctional
Fed had to inject liquidity
For Real Estate, it will take longer time to reprice
Now it's time to buy hotels, NY famous landmark, Oriental Mandarin, something like that, I can't remember, any new yorker? 2019 revenue 150 million, in pandemic, 15 million
An Asian investor injected 98 million to get 80% of the shares, Great bargain
Also I believe so called Fed Puts are just bullshit
If equity market drawdown does not crash economy, they don't give a fuss about it
So my feeling is 4 rate hikes and 60 billion QT each month can start as early as June
Can go as high as 80 billions a month
120B, not likely, they don't have that much for redemption each months
Of course they can start selling
That will create market instability
Fed realized now, The problem is not people don't have enough money to consume
The problem now is too much money
they don't mind destroying some money as well as asset price, 降低财富效应
So don't let your money get destroyed in the process.
知道为什么股市大跌?
从Fed meeting minutes
有3件东西
1 tapering
2 raise interest rate
3 quantitative tightening
第3项 特别要命
就是Fed reduce balance sheet
Interest rate 上升，treasury bond price 下跌，会造成 liquidity issue, 比如repo market
Reduce balance sheet会造成cash shortage
这都会造成股票，地产市场大跌
而美国消费者的信心和购买力，绝大部分从中获得的
Bond 价格下跌，为啥会造成liquidity issue?
比如你需要10个bond作为collateral
现在你要13个，repo market就会渐渐失去流动性
资金流动不起来，经济就死了
这不但影响美国经济，欧洲美元市场也失去流动性，全球经济就垮了
When real interest rate becomes positive
CPI is at 8.x%
You raise interest rate to 3%
Still a big negative interest rate
有用吗?
Fed敢像80年的Fed Chairman Paul Volcker
加息加到18%
no， 20%
如果出现这样的情况，我所有流动资金买Fed 10-year treasury, I am settled for rest of my life.
这更增加了问题的复杂性
今年the best asset you want to hold is CASH
When liquidity dried up
现在的政治形势，迫使Fed must print price down
I am 100% certain that politician's 1st and utmost important priority is
Get reelected
I am 99% certain administration has a lot of influence on Fed
@Jy101 老大，我就是一个loser, 星期六晚上，还在谈经济学，没地方，没人一起嗨皮
The politician's way NOT to get re-elected is high consumer inflation
They have 0 chance if consumer inflation stays at 8%,9%
Janet will call Jeremy, we need to do something
Jeremy will say
Ok, I will do it, but if we bring down stock market and economy, how can you get reelected?
Heard of catch 22?
My utmost priority and best investment idea this year
Is long volatility
If you are an savvy investor and know how to do it, there is lots of money to be made
Worst scenario, stock market drop 50% in 2 months
This will destroy economy
Best scenario is fine tune interest rate so that
Consumer inflation goes from 8% to 7% to 6.5%
Politicians can say that see we are trending down
And stock market is grinding down, lose 40% in 2 years
This will make lots of weak hands sell their stocks at bottom or near bottom
这是拜登政府和联储会的博弈
Fed and politicians will choose 2nd option
Remember that will help them to get re-elected
Trump 4T, Biden 1.9T covid-19 relief package, 1.85T build back better act. Did I miss anything?
Balance sheet from 900B to 4.5T, how much to reduce?
It's about 8.5 trillion now
Market, I mean bond market
Especially short term bond market (up to 5 years treasury)
Has accepted and priced 4 rate hikes this year
But equity market participants have not accepted that
Once they realize and accept
Price will go down
So want I said and what 花姐said still are still intact now
一篇文章， sept 2021, 2-4T in repo market. In 2019, took 1T out, repo market dysfunctional
Fed had to inject liquidity
For Real Estate, it will take longer time to reprice
Now it's time to buy hotels, NY famous landmark, Oriental Mandarin, something like that, I can't remember, any new yorker? 2019 revenue 150 million, in pandemic, 15 million
An Asian investor injected 98 million to get 80% of the shares, Great bargain
Also I believe so called Fed Puts are just bullshit
If equity market drawdown does not crash economy, they don't give a fuss about it
So my feeling is 4 rate hikes and 60 billion QT each month can start as early as June
Can go as high as 80 billions a month
120B, not likely, they don't have that much for redemption each months
Of course they can start selling
That will create market instability
Fed realized now, The problem is not people don't have enough money to consume
The problem now is too much money
they don't mind destroying some money as well as asset price, 降低财富效应
So don't let your money get destroyed in the process.
Cash is king.
资产紧缩, 消费品通胀. 有cash flow的房子和value stock 一样值得拥有.
但他就是瞎扯。
我认为政府的宏观调控会让经济软着陆。
股票涨太多，跌跌挺好。房市太热，增长放缓。
升息最终会让通胀下降，股市下跌，房市增长变慢。That's about it. 过多的分析都是过度解读。两年内房子跌不了。
为了助选，就是Fed在三中方法里面权衡哪个更合适，猴哥认为会选择的是选民能接受的收紧政策，其结果是通胀放缓，但是股市两年跌40%！相较2月50%更能接受
这不是钝刀割肉vs快刀，都受不了，2年跌40% 还想当选？
菜鸟疑问，难道就没有其他的可能？
那么哪些能赚钱呢？
受打击的优质资产，猴哥举例NYC五星酒店，那买不了这种的小散就只能当韭菜？
小散才是选民啊？
每次赚钱机会都大佬得了
小散连汤都没得喝吗？
强烈要求九爷问问猴哥，汤在哪里？这锅是干煎吗？
如果中期选举时油价还在这里，民主党肯定惨败。这大概就是猴哥观点。
我认为，不论民主党干啥，中期惨败已经板上钉钉。
去年去Palaza Hotel 吃下午茶，发现hotel的大部分房间都改成公寓了。这些人也不是傻子。是不是高估了自己？
这个泡泡太大了
重发开采证，抛弃超前的碳排放，可惜民主党不可能，只能玩些小手段打压，所以油价无解，拖累经济，推高通胀。