大年夜猴哥说前程…..

s
smlandlord
楼主 (文学城)

知道为什么股市大跌?

从Fed meeting minutes

有3件东西

1 tapering

2 raise interest rate

3 quantitative tightening

第3项 特别要命

就是Fed reduce balance sheet

Interest rate 上升,treasury bond price 下跌,会造成 liquidity issue, 比如repo market

Reduce balance sheet会造成cash shortage

这都会造成股票,地产市场大跌

而美国消费者的信心和购买力,绝大部分从中获得的

Bond 价格下跌,为啥会造成liquidity issue?

比如你需要10个bond作为collateral

现在你要13个,repo market就会渐渐失去流动性

资金流动不起来,经济就死了

这不但影响美国经济,欧洲美元市场也失去流动性,全球经济就垮了

When real interest rate becomes positive

CPI is at 8.x%

You raise interest rate to 3%

Still a big negative interest rate

有用吗?

Fed敢像80年的Fed Chairman Paul Volcker

加息加到18%

no, 20%

如果出现这样的情况,我所有流动资金买Fed 10-year treasury, I am settled for rest of my life.

这更增加了问题的复杂性

今年the best asset you want to hold is CASH

When liquidity dried up

现在的政治形势,迫使Fed must print price down

I am 100% certain that politician's 1st and utmost important priority is

Get reelected

I am 99% certain administration has a lot of influence on Fed

@Jy101 老大,我就是一个loser, 星期六晚上,还在谈经济学,没地方,没人一起嗨皮

The politician's way NOT to get re-elected is high consumer inflation

They have 0 chance if consumer inflation stays at 8%,9%

Janet will call Jeremy, we need to do something

Jeremy will say

Ok, I will do it, but if we bring down stock market and economy, how can you get reelected?

Heard of catch 22?

My utmost priority and best investment idea this year

Is long volatility

If you are an savvy investor and know how to do it, there is lots of money to be made

Worst scenario, stock market drop 50% in 2 months

This will destroy economy

Best scenario is fine tune interest rate so that

Consumer inflation goes from 8% to 7% to 6.5%

Politicians can say that see we are trending down

And stock market is grinding down, lose 40% in 2 years

This will make lots of weak hands sell their stocks at bottom or near bottom

这是拜登政府和联储会的博弈

Fed and politicians will choose 2nd option

Remember that will help them to get re-elected

Trump 4T, Biden 1.9T covid-19 relief package, 1.85T build back better act. Did I miss anything?

Balance sheet from 900B to 4.5T, how much to reduce?

It's about 8.5 trillion now

Market, I mean bond market

Especially short term bond market (up to 5 years treasury)

Has accepted and priced 4 rate hikes this year

But equity market participants have not accepted that

Once they realize and accept

Price will go down

So want I said and what 花姐said still are still intact now

一篇文章, sept 2021, 2-4T in repo market. In 2019, took 1T out, repo market dysfunctional 

Fed had to inject liquidity

For Real Estate, it will take longer time to reprice

Now it's time to buy hotels,  NY famous landmark, Oriental Mandarin, something like that, I can't remember, any new yorker? 2019 revenue 150 million, in pandemic, 15 million

An Asian investor injected 98 million to get 80% of the shares, Great bargain

Also I believe so called Fed Puts are just bullshit

If equity market drawdown does not crash economy, they don't give a fuss about it

So my feeling is 4 rate hikes and 60 billion QT each month can start as early as June

Can go as high as 80 billions a month

120B, not likely, they don't have that much for redemption each months

Of course they can start selling 

That will create market instability

Fed realized now, The problem is not people don't have enough money to consume

The problem now is too much money

they don't mind destroying some money as well as asset price, 降低财富效应

So don't let your money get destroyed in the process.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

s
smlandlord
今天猴哥和我说的一段,我发上来大家看看,希望对大家有一些帮助,微信不能转过来,照片也不行,所以我就一行一行的抄下来
s
smlandlord
猴哥是投坛数一数二的具有最前瞻性眼光的一个
m
mobius
多谢

Cash is king. 

M
MarkM76
股市的大埔度下跌和通货膨胀哪个对选举的影响大呢?
a
alpha123
应该是通胀。 影响的人多。
p
pangpangxiongxiong
Hold cash? 不怕7%的通膨了?还是黄金好
f
fusion
认定2022年有高通胀,跟建议持有现金有矛盾。因为现金眼看着会大幅贬值。
f
fusion
楼上有说黄金好。但黄金没有收益,赌其升值仍然有风险。
f
fusion
最好的资产我觉得仍然是投坛的最爱:有现金流的房产。
m
mobius
瞎猜; 前几年fed 放水 资产通胀,消费品不胀. 现在会倒过来

资产紧缩, 消费品通胀. 有cash flow的房子和value stock 一样值得拥有. 

蔡家38号
实际利率涨,流动性下降,黄金看跌的
r
rapidestate
文章的中心思想是美国准备自己搞垮自己?sorry, 恕我不知道猴哥是谁。

但他就是瞎扯。

我认为政府的宏观调控会让经济软着陆。

股票涨太多,跌跌挺好。房市太热,增长放缓。

升息最终会让通胀下降,股市下跌,房市增长变慢。That's about it. 过多的分析都是过度解读。两年内房子跌不了。

i
if_sky_cry
谢谢猴哥和Jy
b
borisg
then what to do, buy gold?
n
nyjg
Long VIX calls?
品酒
文中说买受疫情沉重打击的产业
b
borisg
airlines?
品酒
缩表不影响?
品酒
Hotels in NYC
Q
QinHwang
拜登政府采取任何行动可能为时已晚。
b
borisg
哈哈哈哈,纽约酒店过几天被政府征用收容瘾君子了。。。
h
hz82000
1)持现金是为了捡便宜货;2)为了避免可能预测的市场crash
p
pangpangxiongxiong
没错,美联储和美国政府一有危机就印钱,通膨是迟早的事
Q
QinHwang
要抑制通胀又要保持经济繁荣的假象(股市繁荣,低失业率)是矛盾的。
品酒
看得不是特别明白,但老大推荐的所以来回读了几遍,大致的意思

为了助选,就是Fed在三中方法里面权衡哪个更合适,猴哥认为会选择的是选民能接受的收紧政策,其结果是通胀放缓,但是股市两年跌40%!相较2月50%更能接受

这不是钝刀割肉vs快刀,都受不了,2年跌40% 还想当选? 

菜鸟疑问,难道就没有其他的可能?

那么哪些能赚钱呢?

受打击的优质资产,猴哥举例NYC五星酒店,那买不了这种的小散就只能当韭菜?

小散才是选民啊?

每次赚钱机会都大佬得了

小散连汤都没得喝吗?

强烈要求九爷问问猴哥,汤在哪里?这锅是干煎吗?

 

 

 

品酒
五星地标酒店,自己不好好读,还瞎怼人
p
pangpangxiongxiong
印钱印了多年,谁当总统都无能为力
Q
QinHwang
是。共和党历来反对deficits,但川普根本不加抑制,但对加息,一味追求经济繁荣。他的繁荣好像只局限股市。
越王剑
为了助选拜登鼓励FED加息

如果中期选举时油价还在这里,民主党肯定惨败。这大概就是猴哥观点。

我认为,不论民主党干啥,中期惨败已经板上钉钉。

 

绿
绿色健康
+1
h
hhtt
从小布什开始,在经济上已经不是共和党了,他还有个借口,花钱反恐!老川更好,在大好经济环境下减税,一上台就加了1.5T的债!
a
alpha123
不是说谁当选都是那么回事,两党勾结割韭菜么。
q
qiaoshe
纽约的酒店都在改成高档公寓了

去年去Palaza Hotel 吃下午茶,发现hotel的大部分房间都改成公寓了。这些人也不是傻子。是不是高估了自己?

绿
绿园紫竹
观点都同意,但是为什么两年跌40%?FED应该会小心地做QT,不会容许跌40%。希望能软着陆
绿
绿园紫竹
优质资产不一定是五星酒店。湾区这边multi family现在是2018年的价格
w
wade
主党选民主体对股票不敏感 对dollor 店 消费品更敏感
w
wade
租控!说3遍
H
H&CMom
谢JY和猴哥!
落花起作回风舞
两年跌40%就是软着陆了,跟三个月跌50%比
H
H&CMom
就是不知道能不能做到软着陆

这个泡泡太大了

C
Calsh2007
谢谢JY和猴哥。
R
Riskoff
错误,股票如果大跌,选举肯定失败,经济就业会同时变坏,通胀只能加息抑制一点,对油价下重手。

重发开采证,抛弃超前的碳排放,可惜民主党不可能,只能玩些小手段打压,所以油价无解,拖累经济,推高通胀。

t
tallcuterich
大佬们多分析,我们小弟多学习学习