The publicized four-stage (long-term, middle-term, short-term, and imminent) prediction of the M 7.3 1975 Haicheng, China, earthquake once generated worldwide fascination. Yet the prediction process has remained mysterious because of lack of reports on real-time documentation and details of how warnings were issued. In the present work, study of declassified Chinese documents and interviews of key witnesses have allowed us to reconstruct this important history. Our findings indicate that there were two official middle-term predictions but no official short-term prediction. On the day of the earthquake, a county government issued a specific evacuation order, and actual actions taken by provincial scientists and government officials also effectively constituted an imminent prediction. These efforts saved thousands of lives, but the local construction style and time of the earthquake also contributed to minimizing fatalities. Evacuation was extremely uneven across the disaster region, and critical decisions were often made at very local levels. The most important precursor was a foreshock sequence, but other anomalies such as geodetic deformation, changes in groundwater level, color, and chemistry, and peculiar animal behavior also played a role.
远新又名李实,他今年80岁了。
上世纪七十年代,李实在辽宁工作,是省委的主要负责人之一(革命委员会副主任)。在1975年2月,他当众拍板决定一件事情,挽救(拯救)了许多人民群众的宝贵生命!
什么事?
事情是这样的。
从1974年下半年开始,海城、营口一带接连发生了多次小地震。省地震办经常向省委报告地震发生的情况。省委高度重视,多次专门开会,研究对策。建立了大量地震监测点,监测小组。开展防震减灾的宣传教育,让广大群众掌握应急防震知识。
到了1975年初,小震越来越频繁,震级逐渐升高,小震活动达到了百余次。地震专家对李伯秋、李实等人说:小震闹、大震到。对此,省委高度警惕。
2月4日凌晨1点左右,营口、海城一带发生了5级左右的地震。
李实、李伯秋等人高度重视,立即查问地震情况,召开工作会议。
李伯秋问:“破坏地震具体指什么?近期内?很可能?一小时叫近期,十天半月也算近期。”
尹灿贞回答:“破坏地震震级大于5级。科学家对地震进行了预测,但具体时间不好说。”
李实沉思后,说:“情况比较紧急!我提议由省人民广播电台迅速直接播出震情预报。要让人民群众离开不结实的房屋,特别是晚上,不能住在室内。”
有同志有疑虑,说:“广播一播出,全国、全世界人都知道了。如果几天之内大地震不来,岂不要闹大笑话了。责任谁承担?”
还有同志说:“有关机构预测到了即将发生的一些征兆,给出的只是可能性,并非必然。何时发生?谁也没有绝对把握。离开房屋的话,室外零下几度,如果几天不来地震,要冻伤人的。海城、营口、盘山等11个县,人口有660万。让大批老百姓呆在室外,要冒很大的风险,出了事,责任谁担?”
又有同志说:“一旦发出预报,可能工业生产会受到影响。鞍钢很多工人的家就在海城、营口一带,影响了鞍钢生产,也是不得了的事情啊。如预报错误,造成的生产损失会很严重。”
李实挺身而出,大胆拍板,说道:“电话通知营口、鞍山两市,召集海城县、营口县及当地驻军立即开紧急会议。同时,通过市县有线广播网直接传达下去,发布地震消息,播出震情预报!出了问题我负责!”
4日上午10点,在海城召开了紧急会议,传达了省委指示,发布了临震预报:从现在起,海城、营口两县所有人员都不要在屋子里了,生产队的大牲口、农业机械都要拉到室外。同时,各级干部、民兵全部下基层,挨家挨户动员群众到室外去。在生产队和城镇的居民区,有大喇叭持续广播,动员群众离开房屋。
震后统计,全省倒塌房屋百万间,伤万余人,遇难1300余人(大多为不愿离开屋子的老人)。
据估计,如果事先没有预防,如果当天不发预报的话,遇难人数将有可能超过十万余人。
李伯秋、李实等人成功指挥了“海城避震”,拯救(挽救)了许多群众的宝贵生命。
扯进来,有点low。
中国学者写的“Predicting the 1975 Haicheng Earthquake”,July 2006,Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
的评价:
The publicized four-stage (long-term, middle-term, short-term, and imminent) prediction of the M 7.3 1975 Haicheng, China, earthquake once generated worldwide fascination. Yet the prediction process has remained mysterious because of lack of reports on real-time documentation and details of how warnings were issued. In the present work, study of declassified Chinese documents and interviews of key witnesses have allowed us to reconstruct this important history. Our findings indicate that there were two official middle-term predictions but no official short-term prediction. On the day of the earthquake, a county government issued a specific evacuation order, and actual actions taken by provincial scientists and government officials also effectively constituted an imminent prediction. These efforts saved thousands of lives, but the local construction style and time of the earthquake also contributed to minimizing fatalities. Evacuation was extremely uneven across the disaster region, and critical decisions were often made at very local levels. The most important precursor was a foreshock sequence, but other anomalies such as geodetic deformation, changes in groundwater level, color, and chemistry, and peculiar animal behavior also played a role.
老中医的很多‘奇迹’,也多半是同一性质的存在。
“1975年2月4日11时,接到临震预报后,李伯秋向下辖市、县发表了四点指示:把地震范围划清楚,包括确定震中多大;在地震中心划个戒备区,采取紧急措施,昼夜值班巡逻,不坚固的房子要借宿睡觉;市、县、公社在震中区要值班,坚守岗位,有情况及时报告,采取措施;工厂、矿山建筑物、水库、桥梁、坑口、高压线等要加强戒备,坚守岗位,专人看管,有情况要报告。当晚上19时半左右,海城发生七点三级强烈地震,地震袭击的6个市、10个县的震区范围内,城镇房屋毁坏508万平方米,农村民房毁坏86.7万间,却仅有1328人死亡。 ”
1975年2月26日,中共辽宁省委常委召开扩大会议,再次审批张志新案件。出席这次会议的有毛远新等17人。会上,蔡文林作了《关于现行反革命犯张志新的案情报告》。会议中毛远新发表了他的意见说,“判了无期徒刑,还一直相当反动,看来是死心塌地;服刑期间还那么疯狂,还犯罪,让她多活一天多搞一天反革命,杀了算了。”此话一出导致她死亡[11][5] 2月27日,辽宁省高级人民法院遵照省委常委扩大会议决定,给辽宁省沈阳市中级人民法院下发文件:“你院报省审批的张志新现行反革命一案,于1975年2月26日经省委批准判处张犯死刑,立即执行。希望遵照执行,并且将执行情况报给我们。” 3月6日,监狱有人提出,张志新“是否精神失常”的问题向上级报告。3月19日,上级批示:“洪××同志不考虑,她的假象,本质不变,仍然按省委批示执行。”张志新由于在行刑前经过多日“小号”(一种只能坐,不能躺卧的特小牢笼)以及酷刑的折磨,已经被逼疯,用馒头沾着经血吃,坐在大小便里[8]。
当时,外国爱情电影属黄色电影。也称内部小电影,专给有特权人批判看。