Before anyone thinks about retirement, instead of counting your money or saving, one should calculate the average-monthly expense for past two years. Without any unexpectable event, one can use this as a daily baseline.
The second expense is the expected-tax liability. Before one retired, employer(s) has taken care for you.
The third expense is, actually it is one of most important one, Medicare and medical supplement insurance.
The fourth budget is extra and pocket money.
The fifth is, please (because many people forget that), subtract expected SS and pension.
Put all these together, one has this Expecting Retirement Expense (budget) as ERX.
The immediate retirement (10 years after one’s retirement) expense will be roughly in 90%-120% of this ERX (Expecting Retirement Expense), if one does not want to move, relocate, as well as downsize.
After that, now one can open his (or her) peg box and count Total INVESTABLE money, as TI$.
Saving 6 month raining-day money in bank (this money every one should have) and one year budget in the CD just for emergency use.
From the historical data (after 1980), two-years downmarket only happened once. Hopefully, with this CD and raining-day money, as well as a little cut of some expenses, you can get through dreadful period without taking out your investment from market.
1。 退休后要有当今收入的80%
这是一个通常不负责任的砖家的估算。 太多所谓"专业"人士都是这么搞的， 它的确忽悠了大多数不真正明白的人。
其实当今有多少收入，跟退休准备金无关。 比如，你年收入100万，你每年开销只有5万，请问你退休基金需要准备多少? 是根据100万的80%， 还是根据5万?
所以退休准备金的估算是根据目前的开销，而不是目前的收入。
2。 4% withdrawal rule。
太多所谓"专业"人士都拍脑袋提出这个rule。 根据什么? 为什么5%， 6%不可以? 在我来看3%~6%都可以， 是根据每人的能接受risk的程度。 要知道S&P每年平均有8%的return， (且不说去年有20%)。
3。 到了接近退休年龄的时候，把50%的钱放到bond。
据说是为了避险。 有没有人想过， 你退休后是逐年取钱， 也就是每年只取出其中的一小部分， 为什么却要把50%放到回报很低的bond? 即使股票连跌5年，你也没必要把50%放去bond。
4。 基本上不提及，退休后人人都有SS
如果谈论的是每年存多少钱准备着日后的退休，显然面对的群体是有工作的。 也就是今后有SS的。
如果早退休，开始可以用较高的比率取出。 等到了有SS， 可以减少取出比例。
夫妻两人的SS是一笔不小的数。如果考虑SS，退休准备金可以减少许多。
5。 将来SS可能会没有
有的所谓"专业"人士甚至动辄用SS目前亏空，将来可能会没有的来恐吓大家。
要知道这个国家的SS即使了源，政府也绝对不可能停发每月的SS。 首先这是一个大众与政府一生的契约，政府不可以违反。 其次假设政府停发SS，绝大多数老人生活会立马没着落，不造反才怪呢。 在这同时，老中不同，老中节俭， 如果断了外面的经济来源，起码可以撑上好几年。
总之，这个国家55岁以上年龄组的平均retirement savings还不到20万。 而这里的多数似乎都已经过了100万，却还在担忧不到个N个百万不够退休。必定是陷在了误区了。
有啥好算的？
钱多有钱多的退休活法，钱少有钱少的退休活法，美国家庭收入5万的多的去了，没退休的时候不都还活得挺好嘛。
怎么退都行。美国人没那么多钱，退得也挺滋养。
身体不好，多少钱都没用。
Before anyone thinks about retirement, instead of counting your money or saving, one should calculate the average-monthly expense for past two years. Without any unexpectable event, one can use this as a daily baseline.
The second expense is the expected-tax liability. Before one retired, employer(s) has taken care for you.
The third expense is, actually it is one of most important one, Medicare and medical supplement insurance.
The fourth budget is extra and pocket money.
The fifth is, please (because many people forget that), subtract expected SS and pension.
Put all these together, one has this Expecting Retirement Expense (budget) as ERX.
The immediate retirement (10 years after one’s retirement) expense will be roughly in 90%-120% of this ERX (Expecting Retirement Expense), if one does not want to move, relocate, as well as downsize.
After that, now one can open his (or her) peg box and count Total INVESTABLE money, as TI$.
My rule of safe level:
TI$/ ERX > 25, very safe
TI$/ ERX ~ 25, safe
TI$/ ERX < 25, need a new plan
再乘上1.2的系数（考虑到通膨），如果到了65岁，可以再减去SS，如果房子付完贷款，可以再减去mortgage。这应该很简单想到。只是有一点，在考虑是否该买点年金或是每月可以提取收入的人寿保险，毕竟如果到了60或更长，大部分在股市还是有点担心。
假设到了60岁你开始退休，有100万。 你只是需要每年从里面提出（假设）5万。
要是股市立马跌20%， 你到年底只剩100*80%-5= 75万。 应该属于最坏，最不lucky的情形了。 但是按常理说，5年内必定能会涨回来。 不可能每年跌20%，那即使天不塌下来，FED一定会印钱就市。
如果你一半在bond, 到年底只剩 50*80% + (50-5) = 85万。 虽然bond帮你避了险，但你失去了upside
都说股市有风险，但最大的风险就是不投股票。
将来走了，小孩还有一大笔收入。 你们的资产配置里一定有人寿险吧？
能让你赚钱的，就是时间
也许是丢了工作,也许是生病.这部分钱让你在熊市时不必sell low.
you can only use your own judgement
Saving 6 month raining-day money in bank (this money every one should have) and one year budget in the CD just for emergency use.
From the historical data (after 1980), two-years downmarket only happened once. Hopefully, with this CD and raining-day money, as well as a little cut of some expenses, you can get through dreadful period without taking out your investment from market.
如果都没了当然大家会造反。
但是改，比如说retirement account有百万以上的不发社安金。
这样就不会影响大部分老人了。
我隔壁老白华尔街的,估计至少有5立米, 50就退休了，我想55就退，几立米够？
比如一年至少十五万以上的花费。
用我的公式 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/tzlc/1025300.html
假设:
55岁退休 (第一年开始取用$150000)
67岁拿SS
活到90岁
n1 = 12
n2 = 23
退休时(55岁)SS的估计额 $50000
Annual investment return r1 = 1.06%
Inflation rate r2 = 1.03%
COLA r3 = 1.02%
55岁时需要有$2,706,907