Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:
1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England. 2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks. 3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate. 4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal" 5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants. 6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID) 7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it. 8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity. 9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic 10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms 11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it. 12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet. 13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks. 14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!
我昨天说了,在美国的我亲属一家6口老少三辈都阳了,有2个重的,爷爷和孙子,今天报信都见好了。
1 昨天发的,没打疫苗的重
2 今天发的,爷爷辈拍片了,肺子没事。
Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:
1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England.
2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks.
3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate.
4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal"
5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants.
6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID)
7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it.
8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity.
9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic
10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms
11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it.
12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet.
13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks.
14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!
我希望这是真的,但是应该想得更坏一点儿,以免乐观预测再次落空。
带口罩,少出门之类的就如筑防洪坝,过去小洪水(regular covid, delta) 管用,遇见Omicron,秒崩。
一开始的宣传说得太美妙了。如果一开始就科学地宣传,媒体都低调点,大家的期待就不会那么高了。
宣传得太好了。
https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-director-data-vaccinated-people-do-not-carry-covid-19-2021-3?r=US&IR=T
(发自我的文学城离线浏览器)
我家老大回校需要有阴性结果,CVS预约最早的也是10天后了。最后只好找家医开单在quest做检测,quest 不接受有症状病人。这要是真中招了,待到去检测时也差不多好了吧?