打疫苗防重症就行了

h
hhhh
楼主 (文学城)

我昨天说了,在美国的我亲属一家6口老少三辈都阳了,有2个重的,爷爷和孙子,今天报信都见好了。

1 昨天发的,没打疫苗的重

 

 

2 今天发的,爷爷辈拍片了,肺子没事。

d
dudaan
今天在微信群看到一个东西,我怀疑其真实性,但反映了很多人的乐观想法

Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:

1       Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron.  Delta is almost completely gone from New England.
2       This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks.
3       We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate.
4       February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal"
5       Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious.  It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants.
6       The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID)
7       We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it.
8       COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc.  It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity.
9       40% of those infected will be asymptomatic
10      Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms
11      Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it.
12      We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet.
13      There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks.
14      Spring/Summer will be really nice!

我希望这是真的,但是应该想得更坏一点儿,以免乐观预测再次落空。

f
fuz
我们这儿流病专家预测折点在1/18日之前
b
beGood123
Omicron就像洪水来了,人人过关;打疫苗就像提前拿个救生圈,也许也不管用,但是防淹死比裸泳强

带口罩,少出门之类的就如筑防洪坝,过去小洪水(regular covid, delta) 管用,遇见Omicron,秒崩。

s
street0120003
大致如此,但日期难说
d
dudaan
我的感觉是美国大众对疫苗的失望情绪正在增长

一开始的宣传说得太美妙了。如果一开始就科学地宣传,媒体都低调点,大家的期待就不会那么高了。

h
hhhh
打第3针相当于套3个游泳圈 哈哈哈哈
d
dudaan
前面那两个已经漏气了!
h
hhhh
南非1个月从高峰下来了 我月底前少去人多的地方 避开高峰
q
qiuqiu..
可是疫苗对原始株确实效果很好,后面的变异株是无法预测的。
d
dudaan
你说得对,但根据TBZ的研究,疫苗一开始就强调只是防重症,而媒体

宣传得太好了。

香草仙子
哈哈哈
l
lawattaction
哈哈哈
周老大
研发疫苗以防重症为目的?开天辟地头一回吧?
古来圣贤皆寂寞
第三个就保证不漏气?
M
MayX
以前的流感疫苗就已经开始铺垫防重症一说, 好多人打了流感疫苗生病都是这么安慰自己的
M
MayX
我看的预测是打疫苗会加剧病毒变异
阿明.
很形象:)
4
4587
哈哈哈
阿明.
我们政府的策略就是要靠全民感染Omicron 来实现群体免疫。目前感染率已经走在世界前列,跟法国有一拼。
T
TBz
我也看到了,同感。
A
AprilMei
别找补了,efficacy这个词啥意思?媒体创造的?开始怎么说的?98%的efficacy。
A
AprilMei
是行走的病毒传播体。不幸应验了。
m
meiwei2011
本来就没气也是可能的。
阿明.
如果疫苗一开始就是为防重症的,就不会有“突破感染”这个说法了。
R
RollyPoly
这个事情,信疫苗的恒信,不信的恒不信
T
TBz
中午吃的那俩馒头到晚饭时间已经不顶事了
T
TBz
所以我说“突破感染”是个伪概念,纯属媒体炒作之用。
T
TBz
唉!这个事情,需要反思检讨,包括我自己。
l
lawattaction
也有半途转变的。打了二针疫苗,坚决不打第三针,对今后的N针感到滑稽可笑,对儿童打疫苗更表示愤怒!
p
pickshell
被变异病毒啃漏的。
a
ahniu
死于疫苗的人比omicron 还多

(发自我的文学城离线浏览器)

d
dudaan
这个比喻更准确,仍然比中午什么都不吃强
d
dudaan
需要数据支持,反对预设立场
A
AprilMei
从文字上讲符合逻辑。疫苗一年了,O变种才一个多月,又多轻症。
月婵
按现在的检测速度,没办法得到真实的感染情况。

我家老大回校需要有阴性结果,CVS预约最早的也是10天后了。最后只好找家医开单在quest做检测,quest 不接受有症状病人。这要是真中招了,待到去检测时也差不多好了吧?

R
RollyPoly
对,好像现在这样的越来越多,被忽悠了20个月,突然开始反思了。好事
l
lawattaction
请分享!
p
pistache
皇帝的新衣
p
pistache
那个医生敢证明死于疫苗,就连尸检也不被允许。所以数据不可信。
4
4587
哈哈,这疫苗已被当药吃了,有人开始当馒头吃,2个不够再来1个,接下来当补药吃,