As announced on December 17, 2020, the Board's Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock Measures," will recognize savings deposits as a type of transaction account, starting with the publication today. This recognition reflects the Board's action on April 24, 2020, to remove the regulatory distinction between transaction accounts and savings deposits by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This change means that savings deposits have had a similar regulatory definition and the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts reported as "Other checkable deposits" on the H.6 statistical release since the change to Regulation D. Consequently, today's H.6 statistical release combines release items "Savings deposits" and "Other checkable deposits" retroactively back to May 2020 and includes the resulting sum, reported as "Other liquid deposits," in the M1 monetary aggregate. This action increases the M1 monetary aggregate significantly while leaving the M2 monetary aggregate unchanged.
As announced on December 17, 2020, the Board's Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock Measures," will recognize savings deposits as a type of transaction account, starting with the publication today. This recognition reflects the Board's action on April 24, 2020, to remove the regulatory distinction between transaction accounts and savings deposits by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This change means that savings deposits have had a similar regulatory definition and the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts reported as "Other checkable deposits" on the H.6 statistical release since the change to Regulation D. Consequently, today's H.6 statistical release combines release items "Savings deposits" and "Other checkable deposits" retroactively back to May 2020 and includes the resulting sum, reported as "Other liquid deposits," in the M1 monetary aggregate. This action increases the M1 monetary aggregate significantly while leaving the M2 monetary aggregate unchanged.
As announced on December 17, 2020, the Board's Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock Measures," will recognize savings deposits as a type of transaction account, starting with the publication today. This recognition reflects the Board's action on April 24, 2020, to remove the regulatory distinction between transaction accounts and savings deposits by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This change means that savings deposits have had a similar regulatory definition and the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts reported as "Other checkable deposits" on the H.6 statistical release since the change to Regulation D. Consequently, today's H.6 statistical release combines release items "Savings deposits" and "Other checkable deposits" retroactively back to May 2020 and includes the resulting sum, reported as "Other liquid deposits," in the M1 monetary aggregate. This action increases the M1 monetary aggregate significantly while leaving the M2 monetary aggregate unchanged.
许多人说现在的物价上涨是“印钱”的结果。这种说法有两个误区:
1. Federal Reserve“印钱”增加的是Monetary Base,而影响物价的是M2 Money Supply。Monetary Base的钱得经过Fractional Reserve Banking System才能转化为M2 Money Supply,才能影响物价。
2. M2 Money Suppy也不是自己就能影响物价。M2 Money Supply乘以M2 Money Velocity等于Real GDP乘以Price Level。这就是Fisher's Monetary Exchange Equation。
疫情以前2020年二月时M2 Money Supply是$15,370T,2021年八月时M2 Money Supply是$20,797T。你或许要跳起来说,增加那么多啊,怪不得物价上涨。慢着慢着,别那么快就下结论。我们再来看M2 Money Velocity。M2 Money Velocity的数据是以季度来看的。疫情之前的2019年第四季度的M2 Money Velocity是1.423。2021年第二季度的M2 Money Velocity是1.121。
我们来算M2 Money Supply乘以M2 Money Velocity,比较疫情前和最近的数字。
疫情以前:15.370 * 1.423 = 22.0
最近: 20.797 * 1.121 = 23.3
增加了多少:(23.3 - 22.0) / 22.0 = 0.06 = 6%。
这段时间,Real GDP大概增长了0.8%。也就是说,这一年半以来,Price Level增加了5.2%。
因此这段时间一般老百姓购物时所经历的物价上涨并不是“印钱”的结果,而是供应链受疫情影响所造成。等到疫情下降结束供应链恢复正常,物价上涨的情形就会缓解。
M2 Money Suppy Data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
M2 Money Velocity Data:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
从以上图表可以看出,疫情以来M2 Money Velocity大幅下降。为什么?除了lockdown减少commercial transactions之外,另一个原因是钱流入financial transactions(股市,房市,...,等等。)Financial transactions是不计入Fisher's Monetary Exchange Equation里的M2 Money Velocity的,反映出来的就是M2 Money Velocity的下降。
从以上这两份图表,2020年春夏的时候,我们就可以看到,M2 Money Supply正大幅上升,M2 Money Velocity正大幅下降。那表示那时大量的资金正大举进入金融市场,也表示那时正是投资股市和房市的时候。
我们信不信呢?不用你费心。有8因为,就是你说了无数,我们都知道,你论说之前,早就有结论。何必呢!
对于部分网友可能有点儿小学奥数班讲解微积分,拔高!
也就是说从2020年5月份起大规模印钱放水以来,政府计算M2的口径与以前完全不一样了,
有哪些项目不包含以后的M2以内,你自己去比较一下一目了然
1,你用两个包含不同组成的M2计算出来的数据,有比较的意义吗?在玩数字游戏吧
2,再者,既然比较,也要同时期同季度比较。
2021年的二季度要比较2020年的二季度,
哪里有2021年二季度对比2019年四季度的?
四季度是商业旺季,四季度与上年四季比;你这样糊弄人,要被投资者投诉的
官方说了:
从2020年5月份开始,我们统计M2口径变了。以前包括ABCDE…现在包括CDE…

房价,医疗,教育价格都是直线上升,用来买东西的钱少了,但也不算通胀。皆大欢喜。
创造出"暂时性物价上涨",还说是供应链引起的,
"暂时性物价上涨" "供应链"引起的都不算是物价上涨
所有老百姓天天多花钱20%,不承认有inflation
经济学家只算出5%,
而是M1变多了。参考以下Federal Reserve的announcement:
x13as.
February 23, 2021
First Monthly H.6 Statistical ReleaseAs announced on December 17, 2020, the Board's Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock Measures," will recognize savings deposits as a type of transaction account, starting with the publication today. This recognition reflects the Board's action on April 24, 2020, to remove the regulatory distinction between transaction accounts and savings deposits by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This change means that savings deposits have had a similar regulatory definition and the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts reported as "Other checkable deposits" on the H.6 statistical release since the change to Regulation D. Consequently, today's H.6 statistical release combines release items "Savings deposits" and "Other checkable deposits" retroactively back to May 2020 and includes the resulting sum, reported as "Other liquid deposits," in the M1 monetary aggregate. This action increases the M1 monetary aggregate significantly while leaving the M2 monetary aggregate unchanged.
而是M1变多了。参考以下Federal Reserve的announcement:
x13as.
February 23, 2021
First Monthly H.6 Statistical ReleaseAs announced on December 17, 2020, the Board's Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock Measures," will recognize savings deposits as a type of transaction account, starting with the publication today. This recognition reflects the Board's action on April 24, 2020, to remove the regulatory distinction between transaction accounts and savings deposits by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This change means that savings deposits have had a similar regulatory definition and the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts reported as "Other checkable deposits" on the H.6 statistical release since the change to Regulation D. Consequently, today's H.6 statistical release combines release items "Savings deposits" and "Other checkable deposits" retroactively back to May 2020 and includes the resulting sum, reported as "Other liquid deposits," in the M1 monetary aggregate. This action increases the M1 monetary aggregate significantly while leaving the M2 monetary aggregate unchanged.
而是M1变多了。参考以下Federal Reserve的announcement:
x13as.
February 23, 2021
First Monthly H.6 Statistical ReleaseAs announced on December 17, 2020, the Board's Statistical Release H.6, "Money Stock Measures," will recognize savings deposits as a type of transaction account, starting with the publication today. This recognition reflects the Board's action on April 24, 2020, to remove the regulatory distinction between transaction accounts and savings deposits by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits in Regulation D. This change means that savings deposits have had a similar regulatory definition and the same liquidity characteristics as the transaction accounts reported as "Other checkable deposits" on the H.6 statistical release since the change to Regulation D. Consequently, today's H.6 statistical release combines release items "Savings deposits" and "Other checkable deposits" retroactively back to May 2020 and includes the resulting sum, reported as "Other liquid deposits," in the M1 monetary aggregate. This action increases the M1 monetary aggregate significantly while leaving the M2 monetary aggregate unchanged.
不知道上面两个链接中提供的M2 Money Supply和M2 Money Velocity 的数据是否准确(?), 假设它们是准确的,那我们回到2008年次贷危机时的数据看看: M2 Money Supply=8013.5T, M2 Money Velocity=1.813 2008年 8.0135*1.813=14.53
最近的按你的计算为 23.3。
M2 Money Supply 从2008年的8013.5T巨大的扩展到2021年八月的20279T,而M2 Money Velocity从2008年的1.813急剧下降到1.121。 说明巨大释放的资金基本都在吹金融的泡沫,而不是进行实体运营。
2008年的数据14.53远比2021年的23.3健康,细思极恐。
由于中国廉价优质商品的供应,美国的通胀一直控制的比较好, 这13年来Real GDP按每年3%增长粗估:((1+3%)^13-1)*100=47%, 物价 ((23.3-14.5)/14.5)*100=60%, 每年平均price level增长=(60%-47%)/13=1%
通胀超5%,甚至达10%,倒推到金融手段, 要么急剧降低货币投放,要么实体经济快速上扬,可惜都做不到。金融泡沫会极快引爆,贸易战是最大的元凶,因为没有生产能力。
贸易战破坏全球供应链和信任,最大的败笔。
往往偶的判断会滞后
我炒股十多年了, 天天读market watch..
好像那里解释得比较简单. 我在这里就聊天好玩了
反正对美国经济没啥影响。
QE不一定能引起通胀,但印钱过多会引起通胀。这次印钱数量史无前例,绝对是通胀的一大因素。