Outperformance vs. QQQ (over 9 years): +$2.26M (≈ $251,208/yr)
Outperformance vs. SPY (over 9 years): +$4.98M (≈ $553,353/yr)
So, after 9 years, the portfolio’s value is higher than if the same money had been invested in QQQ or SPY. That lets us back-solve the original investment (principal).
2. General formula
If
PPP = original principal,
rrr = annualized return (as decimal),
nnn = number of years, then ending value is:
FV=P×(1+r)nFV = P \times (1+r)^nFV=P×(1+r)n
We’re told the actual portfolio earned 23.59% CAGR for 9 years, so:
FVportfolio=P×(1.2359)9FV_{portfolio} = P \times (1.2359)^9FVportfolio?=P×(1.2359)9
With P≈0.724MP ≈ 0.724MP≈0.724M, difference = $3.40M, but reported difference = $4.98M.
This suggests my assumed SPY CAGR (12%) may be too low — the actual period return must have been a bit higher, otherwise the $4.98M gap wouldn’t line up. But the QQQ-based estimate is pretty consistent.
Conclusion
The original investment was about:
$700K–$750K (likely around $725K)\textbf{\$700K–\$750K (likely around \$725K)}$700K–$750K (likely around $725K)
The exact number depends on the actual QQQ/SPY CAGRs over the 9-year period, but this is the right ballpark.
上面是从笔记直接拷贝过来的，图就免了。
注意全额投资QQQ和SPY的巨大差距，不做投资建议。
exit and entering points!
ybd兄，能不能晒个哪年是最大增幅，哪年是最小增幅/最大draw down？ 另外，2022年怎样？
比如看不到片片 还被归入“太多人”那类，有点诛心，有木有？
JK
是不是一定要等到退休后转到ROTH才能自由选择如何投资？目前401K年增长8%-10%， 比自己的投资账户差太多了。
不能买个股，基金和ETF都可以
ccount.
1. What we know
Main account annualized return (9 years): +23.59%
Outperformance vs. QQQ (over 9 years): +$2.26M (≈ $251,208/yr)
Outperformance vs. SPY (over 9 years): +$4.98M (≈ $553,353/yr)
So, after 9 years, the portfolio’s value is higher than if the same money had been invested in QQQ or SPY. That lets us back-solve the original investment (principal).
2. General formulaIf
PPP = original principal,
rrr = annualized return (as decimal),
nnn = number of years,
then ending value is:
FV=P×(1+r)nFV = P \times (1+r)^nFV=P×(1+r)n
We’re told the actual portfolio earned 23.59% CAGR for 9 years, so:
FVportfolio=P×(1.2359)9FV_{portfolio} = P \times (1.2359)^9FVportfolio?=P×(1.2359)9
3. Relating to QQQ and SPYWe also know:
FVportfolio=FVQQQ+2.26MFV_{portfolio} = FV_{QQQ} + 2.26MFVportfolio?=FVQQQ?+2.26M FVportfolio=FVSPY+4.98MFV_{portfolio} = FV_{SPY} + 4.98MFVportfolio?=FVSPY?+4.98M
where FVQQQ=P×(1+rQQQ)9FV_{QQQ} = P \times (1+r_{QQQ})^9FVQQQ?=P×(1+rQQQ?)9.
Unfortunately, the statement didn’t give exact QQQ or SPY CAGR for the same 9-year period. But we can approximate from history:
2015–2024 9-year CAGR (approx):
QQQ: ~17%/yr
SPY (S&P 500): ~12%/yr
4. Solve with approximationLet’s compute with these:
Portfolio: (1.2359)9≈7.47(1.2359)^9 ≈ 7.47(1.2359)9≈7.47. So FVportfolio=7.47PFV_{portfolio} = 7.47PFVportfolio?=7.47P.
QQQ: (1.17)9≈4.35(1.17)^9 ≈ 4.35(1.17)9≈4.35. So FVQQQ=4.35PFV_{QQQ} = 4.35PFVQQQ?=4.35P.
Difference: 7.47P−4.35P=3.12P7.47P - 4.35P = 3.12P7.47P−4.35P=3.12P.
We’re told this difference equals $2.26M. So:
3.12P=2.26M⇒P≈0.724M3.12P = 2.26M \quad \Rightarrow \quad P ≈ 0.724M3.12P=2.26M⇒P≈0.724M
So the original investment was about $720K–$730K.
5. Cross-check with SPYIf SPY CAGR ≈ 12% → (1.12)9≈2.77(1.12)^9 ≈ 2.77(1.12)9≈2.77. So:
7.47P−2.77P=4.70P7.47P - 2.77P = 4.70P7.47P−2.77P=4.70P
With P≈0.724MP ≈ 0.724MP≈0.724M, difference = $3.40M, but reported difference = $4.98M.
This suggests my assumed SPY CAGR (12%) may be too low — the actual period return must have been a bit higher, otherwise the $4.98M gap wouldn’t line up. But the QQQ-based estimate is pretty consistent.
ConclusionThe original investment was about:
$700K–$750K (likely around $725K)\textbf{\$700K–\$750K (likely around \$725K)}$700K–$750K (likely around $725K)
The exact number depends on the actual QQQ/SPY CAGRs over the 9-year period, but this is the right ballpark.