When considering the right time to buy a leading stock you have confidence in, timing can be a crucial factor.
It's a common dilemma many investors face – by the time a promising stock is identified, its early significant gains may have already been missed.
The typical mindset often leans towards hesitancy, with thoughts like, "It has already appreciated so much, perhaps it's too late to invest." This mindset can lead to a perpetual cycle of waiting for the "perfect" entry point. While it's true that even strong stocks may experience temporary setbacks, these corrections frequently occur at higher price levels than when the stock first caught your attention. Ultimately, the difference in price isn't substantial compared to buying it promptly.
In my approach, I advocate for purchasing a stock once I have conviction in its potential. Even if the initial price may seem elevated in the short term, the long-term impact on returns tends to be minimal. In the majority of instances, the entry price's effect on overall returns is often insignificant.
Reflecting on my experience, Tesla (TSLA) stands out as a unique case. Despite a five-year period of stagnation from 2014 to 2019 after my initial purchase of $12(spit adjusted) in 2014, other holdings like Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Costco (COST), NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Palantir (PLTR), and Vistra (VST) have all reached new highs within two years of acquisition, even if encountering initial fluctuations.
对于Robinhood和Coinbase这种交易评台我一直不太看好，一直以来的观点直接投股票或比特币回报应远远超过交易评台本身，下面说一下改变观念的理由：
1. 多元化投资组合，降低单一资产风险
• HOOD的多元化业务：Robinhood不仅提供加密货币交易，还支持股票、期权、ETF等多种资产交易。这种多元化的业务模式使其受加密货币市场波动的影响较小。相比直接投资比特币或稳定币，HOOD通过提供多样化的金融服务，能够在不同市场环境中捕捉增长机会。例如，2025年Zacks预测HOOD收入和每股收益分别同比增长25.4%和34.9%，显示其增长潜力。
• COIN的专业化优势：Coinbase是美国最大的加密货币交易所，专注于加密资产交易和相关服务（如质押、NFT市场等）。虽然其业绩与加密市场高度相关，但其作为行业龙头的地位使其能从整体市场增长中获益，而不仅仅依赖单一币种（如比特币）的表现。
2. 平台费用和收入模式的杠杆效应
• 交易费用和增值服务：HOOD和COIN通过交易手续费、订阅服务（如Robinhood Gold或Coinbase的高级交易功能）以及其他金融服务（如借贷、质押）产生稳定收入。直接投资稳定币通常只能通过借贷或质押获得较低的年化收益率（5%-12%），而平台通过规模效应和多样化收入来源可能获得更高回报。例如，Coinbase 2024年底拥有93亿美元的现金及等价物，财务状况稳健，显示其盈利能力。
• 市场波动带来的交易量增长：加密货币价格波动（如比特币）通常会刺激交易量增加，从而推高HOOD和COIN的收入。相比直接持有比特币，投资平台可以间接从市场活跃度中获益，而无需承担单一资产的价格风险。
3. 监管环境和政策红利
• 政策支持的潜在利好：2025年美国对加密货币的监管环境有所改善，特朗普政府对加密货币的友好态度和监管清晰化的预期利好交易平台。Coinbase作为合规性强的头部交易所，更可能受益于机构采用和政策松绑。HOOD也在积极扩展加密业务，计划推出加密钱包功能，进一步增强其竞争力。
• 稳定币的监管风险：稳定币（如USDT）面临储备透明度和监管合规的潜在风险。例如，Tether曾因储备披露问题受到监管审查。相比之下，HOOD和COIN作为上市公司，需遵守严格的SEC披露要求，透明度更高，风险相对可控。
4. 技术创新与市场扩展
• HOOD的流量优势：Robinhood以其用户友好的界面和零手续费交易吸引了大量年轻用户（超过5000万客户），其流量优势使其在扩展加密业务时具有潜力。HOOD还在国际市场（如欧洲、亚太）扩展，进一步分散收入来源。
• COIN的生态系统布局：Coinbase通过Base（其Layer 2区块链解决方案）和稳定币（如USDC）的推广，构建了强大的生态系统。Base的推出增强了其在DeFi和区块链技术领域的竞争力，而USDC的增长为Coinbase带来额外的交易和托管收入。
风险
• COIN的单一风险：COIN的收入高度依赖加密市场，币价下跌可能对其业绩产生负面影响。
• HOOD的估值风险：HOOD的市盈率（27.75X）高于其历史中值，短期可能面临回调压力。
• 监管与网络安全：两家公司均面临网络安全威胁和监管不确定性，需密切关注政策变化。
结论
投资HOOD和COIN的理由在于其作为交易平台的杠杆效应、多元化收入来源、政策红利以及市场扩展潜力。HOOD适合寻求多元化投资和较低波动的投资者，而COIN更适合看好加密市场长期增长的投资者。相比直接投资比特币（高波动）或稳定币（低回报），这两家公司提供了一种间接参与加密市场的方式，同时具备更高的增长潜力。
估值： HOOD和COIN今年分别涨了164%和60%，PE一个60，一个77，估值很高而且已经错过这波大涨，风险很大，只开了一个小仓观察.
Not my holding,
When considering the right time to buy a leading stock you have confidence in, timing can be a crucial factor.
It's a common dilemma many investors face – by the time a promising stock is identified, its early significant gains may have already been missed.
The typical mindset often leans towards hesitancy, with thoughts like, "It has already appreciated so much, perhaps it's too late to invest." This mindset can lead to a perpetual cycle of waiting for the "perfect" entry point. While it's true that even strong stocks may experience temporary setbacks, these corrections frequently occur at higher price levels than when the stock first caught your attention. Ultimately, the difference in price isn't substantial compared to buying it promptly.
In my approach, I advocate for purchasing a stock once I have conviction in its potential. Even if the initial price may seem elevated in the short term, the long-term impact on returns tends to be minimal. In the majority of instances, the entry price's effect on overall returns is often insignificant.
Reflecting on my experience, Tesla (TSLA) stands out as a unique case. Despite a five-year period of stagnation from 2014 to 2019 after my initial purchase of $12(spit adjusted) in 2014, other holdings like Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Costco (COST), NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Palantir (PLTR), and Vistra (VST) have all reached new highs within two years of acquisition, even if encountering initial fluctuations.