"I've highlighted Costco (COST) and Walmart (WMT) as examples of this phenomenon: Companies like Costco and Walmart are very strong, but they operate on razor-thin margins, and thus have to navigate the complex tariff situation for the foreign-made portion of their goods. Overall, I view these types of companies as overpriced. Investors are paying a very big premium for large companies with low earnings, uncertainty/volatility. Some of them are at more extreme valuations than others (e.g. COST seems crazier to me than MSFT), but they're quite richly priced as a group.” - Lyn Alden
In the case of COST, though, we would then anticipate the resulting pullback and correction to take a great amount of time. It’s not necessarily long-term bearish but the consolidation may be long-lasting in duration. But, remember, this is a setup and not a certainty.
Costco - The King Of Retail: A Case For Caution Jul 2, 2025 - 10:05 PM EDT Levi / Lyn Alden (fundamental analyst)
an excerpt:
"I've highlighted Costco (COST) and Walmart (WMT) as examples of this phenomenon: Companies like Costco and Walmart are very strong, but they operate on razor-thin margins, and thus have to navigate the complex tariff situation for the foreign-made portion of their goods. Overall, I view these types of companies as overpriced. Investors are paying a very big premium for large companies with low earnings, uncertainty/volatility. Some of them are at more extreme valuations than others (e.g. COST seems crazier to me than MSFT), but they're quite richly priced as a group.” - Lyn Alden
In the case of COST, though, we would then anticipate the resulting pullback and correction to take a great amount of time. It’s not necessarily long-term bearish but the consolidation may be long-lasting in duration. But, remember, this is a setup and not a certainty.
我不信股市就这么拉升而不回调，虽然没有什么证据说要崩盘，但是高处不胜寒！月线顶背离，乖离率太高。
日线SPX500
月线SPX
然后再上？