Despite extensive efforts to capture and quantify what we perceive as the key macroeconomic relationships, our knowledge about many critical linkages is far from complete and, in all likelihood, will remain so. Every model, no matter how detailed or how well conceived, designed, and implemented, is a vastly simplified representation of the world
Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen spoke at New York event
BY: Ali Meyer Follow @DJAliMeyer April 12, 2016 5:55 pm
“真正的问题是货币政策在很大程度上是经济预测，而我们的预测能力非常有限，”格林斯潘说，
"The real problem is that monetary policy is very largely economic forecasting and our ability to forecast is significantly limited," said Greenspan,
伯南克说: “我还认为，我们已经了解到，将所有负担都推给央行和货币政策是错误的。”Bernanke said. "I also think that we have learned that it’s a mistake to put all of the burden on the central banks and monetary policy."
"A more balanced policy with a greater fiscal component for example, or for a broader set of policies would no doubt work, even in a situation where central banks were pushed to the limit," he said. "I do think it’s unfortunate that not just the United States but around the world, central banks have carried so much of the burden and we’ve gotten the wrong impression that only central banks can respond to downturns."
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday [May 17, 2007] that he didn't believe the growing number of mortgage defaults would seriously harm the economy
具有讽刺意味的是伯南克2009年12月19日被授予'Man of the Year' honor
Time Magazine has selected Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as "Man of the Year 2009" - I beg your pardon - "Person of the Year 2009." The recognition is very well deserved.
Keep in mind that selection is based on having the greatest impact on the world over the year, not necessarily for the good 选择是基于一年中对世界产生最大影响, 不一定是好的。. For example, Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin were each selected in this ritual of recognition, which dates back to 1927. Bernanke so far has provided very strong and effective political as well as economic leadership in the face of an exceptionally severe recession. The rapid economic downturn was initially sparked by collapse in the subprime mortgage market.
The term "subprime" indicated the widespread irresponsible practice of making mortgage loans to people financially unqualified to have them by traditional banking standards. The housing market fire soon expanded into global conflagration with collapse of the enormous big casino game based on esoteric derivatives instruments.
Collateral Valuation - Securities Valuation and Margins Table - In general, the Federal Reserve seeks to value securities collateral at a fair market value estimate. Securities are valued using prices supplied by the Federal Reserve’s external vendors. Securities for which a price is unavailable from external vendors will receive zero collateral value.
美联储两三事
于2005年,格林斯潘非常谦虚地承认,美联储对宏观方向的预测有限制。
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Reflections on central banking, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 26, 2005 https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050826/default.htm
尽管为捕获和量化我们认为的关键宏观经济关系做出了广泛努力，但我们对许多关键联系的了解还远未完成，而且很可能仍然如此。 每个模型，无论多么详细或构思、设计和实施得多么好，都是关于这个世界一个极其简化的模型。
Despite extensive efforts to capture and quantify what we perceive as the key macroeconomic relationships, our knowledge about many critical linkages is far from complete and, in all likelihood, will remain so. Every model, no matter how detailed or how well conceived, designed, and implemented, is a vastly simplified representation of the world
差不多11年后,他发表了同样的评论,美联储对经济预测的能力有限,美联储货币政策有局限性
Former, Current Fed Chairs Emphasize Limitations of Monetary Policy
Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen spoke at New York event
BY: Ali Meyer Follow @DJAliMeyer April 12, 2016 5:55 pm
“真正的问题是货币政策在很大程度上是经济预测，而我们的预测能力非常有限，”格林斯潘说，
"The real problem is that monetary policy is very largely economic forecasting and our ability to forecast is significantly limited," said Greenspan,
伯南克说: “我还认为，我们已经了解到，将所有负担都推给央行和货币政策是错误的。”Bernanke said. "I also think that we have learned that it’s a mistake to put all of the burden on the central banks and monetary policy."
他表示："即使在央行被推到极限的情况下，具有更大财政成分的更加平衡的政策，或者更广泛的政策，无疑会发挥作用。” “我确实认为不幸的是，不仅是美国，全世界的央行都承担了如此大的负担，而且我们得到了错误的印象，认为只有央行才能应对经济低迷。”
"A more balanced policy with a greater fiscal component for example, or for a broader set of policies would no doubt work, even in a situation where central banks were pushed to the limit," he said. "I do think it’s unfortunate that not just the United States but around the world, central banks have carried so much of the burden and we’ve gotten the wrong impression that only central banks can respond to downturns."
2007年五月伯南克误判次贷潜在破坏性.次贷危机爆发后,美联储实施几轮QE,购买长期国债和MBS,人为压低长期国债利率
Bernanke: Subprime Mortgage Woes Won't Seriously Hurt Economy Published 17 May 2007
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday [May 17, 2007] that he didn't believe the growing number of mortgage defaults would seriously harm the economy
具有讽刺意味的是伯南克2009年12月19日被授予'Man of the Year' honor
Time Magazine has selected Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as "Man of the Year 2009" - I beg your pardon - "Person of the Year 2009." The recognition is very well deserved.
Bernanke deserves 'Man of the Year' honor December 19, 2009
ARTHUR I. CYR Scripps Howard News Service
Keep in mind that selection is based on having the greatest impact on the world over the year, not necessarily for the good 选择是基于一年中对世界产生最大影响, 不一定是好的。. For example, Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin were each selected in this ritual of recognition, which dates back to 1927. Bernanke so far has provided very strong and effective political as well as economic leadership in the face of an exceptionally severe recession. The rapid economic downturn was initially sparked by collapse in the subprime mortgage market.
The term "subprime" indicated the widespread irresponsible practice of making mortgage loans to people financially unqualified to have them by traditional banking standards. The housing market fire soon expanded into global conflagration with collapse of the enormous big casino game based on esoteric derivatives instruments.
美联储几次QE,压低长期债券市场利率.随着时间流逝,国债不断增长,使得下一次QE更加困难.美联储回旋空间正在缩小. 这是一个复杂的话题,也充满了变数, 变数其中之一是: 缩表的议程, 市场猜测,估计要等三月FOMC会议才会有具体计划。
这次做的不错。虽然升息速度很快，但是美国经济十分强劲。丝毫不受升息影响。
国债虽然多印了点，但是卖的不错。
目前看软着路越来越有可能。最近几个大型零售商季报后都上涨。这是很久没发生过的事情了。很多年来，零售季报都是拉稀。
如此强劲的经济已是多年未见。
谁都可以去说，但谁也说不（太）准；即使说准了一次，也很难下次说准。
(发自我的文学城离线浏览器)
不过现在国际交易用美元的比例一直在下降。
美元作为事实上的世界贸易储备货币，尽管流通利用率会慢慢下降, 在可预见的未来不会失去其垄断地位。美国长期债券则不同, 它是主权实体将其用作抵押保险，也具有信用保证功能, 可再質押贷款。 不包括量化宽松期，供需关系,经济状况,市场的力量可以影响长期债券价格. 如果市值变得太低，那就是债券信用危机，谁也不清楚拐点在哪里。
下表给出了一个概念，如果您有10年期的长期债券，在美联储账户系统中，它的Collateral Valuation,净保证margin价值为95%，而不是100%，这个概念与一些股票经纪公司非常相似，一些低等级的股票它的margin只有25%到50%的价值。
这个表是美联储给储户的抵押margin值，如果是欧洲银行，他们给多少margin是美联储无法控制的。
从这里我们可以意识到，穆迪等信用评级公司下调了美国主权债券评级，实际上也降低了美国长期债券抵押保证金价值。
Collateral Valuation - Securities Valuation and Margins Table - In general, the Federal Reserve seeks to value securities collateral at a fair market value estimate. Securities are valued using prices supplied by the Federal Reserve’s external vendors. Securities for which a price is unavailable from external vendors will receive zero collateral value.