Emotion and Discipline

ERP is a good measure of relative attractiveness of equity vs parking in cash:

 

 

from the great Druckenmiller, who sold in 1999 and then got sucked back in ...

 

这个基本就是Fed rate

Earning yld is inverse of PE; FF rate is a overnight rate

昨天空了一点 CMG

转折点 靠近 开始加/减息点

很难说现在在哪一段。97年开始ERP就变负了。如果那个时候卖了就等于错过了绝大部分牛市。

You donot have to go all in or all out

True。但是牛市ERP下降很正常。还是应该和其他指标一起看。上次谁贴了一个margin指标也挺好。

ERP is actually a margin of safety for holding risky equity

Fiscal policy在吹泡泡