讨论太阳能,需要有一点量的概念。

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borisg
楼主 (文学峸)

讨论太阳能,需要有一点量的概念。

本人也担心碳排放对环境的影响,但是仔细看一下,太阳能并不会对这个大的趋势有多大作用。

第一。太阳能即使取代了所有电力需求,也只是美国总能源需求的一小部分,何况太阳能每天分布不均,大量电能储存是不现实的。(我已经给出过,现在的太阳能只占美国能量总消耗的不到百分之一)

第二,所有发展中国家都在快速增加能源消耗,他们用不起昂贵的太阳能,还是得靠烧碳化物。

第三,现在的太阳能发电是依附在现有电力系统上的,真的大规模取代现在的发电系统,稳定性和可靠性是未知的。

如果您希望太阳能来拯救世界,那可能需要几十年,不过到那时候世界已经完蛋了,于事无补了(假如你相信别人告诉你的话。。。)

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ye2000
几十年世界就完蛋了?
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Sequoia_CA
很简单呀,稳定的电网,计算一下有功和无功功率就知道了。什么太阳能等等,号称清洁的能源,离开了电网,你的无功补偿不了,闭门造车?!
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USATiger
2035年, 40%太阳能,要讲科学

周三(9月8日),美国能源部发布了有关太阳能发电的研究报告,详细阐述了太阳能发电在美国电网脱碳过程中蕴含的潜力。报告指出,到2035年太阳能发电有望提供全美40%的电力,并且消费者无需支付更高的电价。

(来源:美国能源部官网)

  美国能源部长Jennifer M. Granholm发表声明称,这份研究表明,作为最便宜、增长速度最快的清洁能源,太阳能可以产生足够的电力,到2035年为全美所有家庭供电,同时创造150万个就业岗位。

  Granholm指出,要实现这一目标,需大规模且公平地部署可再生能源,还需强有力的脱碳政策,这正是基础设施投资和就业法案所提出的,也符合美国总统拜登“重建更好的美国”(Build Back Better)的宗旨。

  美国能源部国家可再生能源实验室撰写了这份名为《太阳能未来研究》的报告,此前拜登政府提出了2035年电力部门实现净零排放的目标。

  2020年,美国太阳能发电占据全国电力供应的3%。该报告指出,从现在到2025年,美国必须每年平均增加3000万千瓦的太阳能发电;从2025年到2030年,每年必须增加6000万千瓦的太阳能发电能力;到2035年,太阳能发电将向美国供应1000吉瓦的电力,而到2050年,太阳能可提供1600吉瓦的电力,这比目前美国所有住宅和商业建筑所消耗的电力还多。

  研究模型显示,除了太阳能占据的40%电力,无碳电网的其余部分主要由风能(36%)、核能(11%-13%)、水力发电(5%-6%)和生物能源/地热(1%)提供。

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iampig
借贴回应一下神龙和美虎两位,感谢你们对我上一贴进行的讨论

我的本意是从屋主的角度讨论个人经济的得失,而不是全球的清洁能源是否需要的问题。

 

我也很有兴趣探讨一下太阳能作为绿色能源是否可行。我没法说它可行或不可行,但

1)太阳能不是唯一的绿色能源,风能,和水力更环保。有新的研究利用海浪来发电,也是不错的方向。

2)太阳能的利用,在技术上远不成熟。能量转化率低。电池本身成本高,生产污染严重,失效电池对环境造成再次污染。所以并不适合大规模商用或民用。由于一些政治原因,有些政客在绿色能源的问题上搞大跃进,把实验室产品推出来当成熟产品。一些环保人士,本着保护地球的心却做出了损害地球环境的事。

3)现阶段应该从提高能源使用效率和寻找新能源两个方面同时入手。现在很多家电都是energy star, 这很好,但还可以继续改进。同时,工业用能源也要提高利用率。政府应该给要改造使用节能新机器的工厂扶持,这比给个人住房加太阳能板扶持更有效。

 

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USATiger
我在的公司上了太阳能,基本用电平衡了,不需要另交钱,只是地皮花了钱。
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USATiger
还研究了hydrogen cell,觉得还是太阳能更成熟,solar city 安装的
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slow_quick
我觉得应该够了。。。

美国每年用电量约为 3.8 trillion kWh (度)电,美国人口约328 million (3.28亿),人均年用电量约 11,515 kWh。

全世界人口 7.9 billion (79亿),如果都像美国人那么用电,那就是 91 trillion kWh。

太阳光射在地球上的能量是 173 trillion kW,每年是 173 × 24 × 365 = 1,515,480 trillion kWh

都像美国人那么用电,每年用掉的也只是总太阳能的 0.006%,还行。

这个分析是不是有点像钱老的亩产万斤粮?

 

 

位酷哥
你的算盘真行!太阳有照24小时(你也信地球是平面?)?人住面积占地表100%?

几个事实:太阳板效率不到15%,瑞典冬天太阳半个小时/天都没有

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Sunblue
不管你算得对不对,都是正能量:))
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slow_quick
哈哈,这24小时把酷哥绕进去了,很有成就感。酷哥让太阳每天只发光12小时,然后休息12小时?

其实这个不难理解,到Costco看看人家怎么烤鸡就明白了。

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slow_quick
这个有功无功有点深奥,好像 Elong Musk 与 Daiken 在谈什么,是否会部分解决。。。

我理解你的无功功率是指交流电情况下荷载不是纯电阻的。如果都是分布式系统,都用直流电源是否就没问题了呢?

如果大金空调用变频技术,电源是直流的是否更简单?

当年Edisson 与 Tesla 打架,交流电胜出,将来会不会反转?

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Sequoia_CA
你有写科幻小说的能力哈。无功功率也是很简单的东东,至少电压稳定就是靠它啦。所有的交流电器,没有电压的保障,日照36小时一天也没用

目前,1000VDC 的直流负荷也不少呀。

顺便讲一个故事,当年,Berkeley CA,那个小埠就是直流供电的。很幸运的,我见过那张供电图。

大阿牛
任何新技术在一开始都会出现很多疑问,遭到很多人质疑和反对。我这次站你这边。
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kitfrommars
我不反对太阳能,只是你拿出的这个报告只是个意向书而已,我不信在美国会成真

美国政客现在最擅长的也就是PPT了

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USATiger
还有中国欧洲,未来必须要改变,如果你往在加州,这近五年的天气山火变化特别明显
神龙摆尾
确实,我所在加州,气候的变化很明显。每一个人都要行动起来才行。
大阿牛
我是学EE的哈,没有完全看明白你的意思:

你说的无功功率我的理解是对应的交流电有效功率而言的。而有效功率是和电流与电压的相位差有关的。理想的最大有效功率是电流和电压同相位,如果是反相位的话,有效功率就为零。这就是为什么电线杆上常常会看到挂这个铁桶一样玩艺,那就是为了补偿相位差安装的电容。

直流供电有它的优点和缺点,你要先明白为什么很少用直流供电而用交流供电。

神龙摆尾
我们小区估计有至少三分之一安装了太阳能,我的出租房也即将达到50%太阳能,还需要继续努力。
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Shanghaigirl98
比起广告帖,我喜欢这样的讨论,虽然不喜欢装太阳能的哈。
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USATiger
大家一条船上,全球变暖站错队就是大家一起完蛋了。
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USATiger
加州的新房,大多数必须装solar

In 2020 California became the first state to require solar panels on the roofs of most new homes, a milestone for a residential solar industry that already enjoyed a healthy foothold in the state.Jul 22, 2020

米奇的厨房
那是你们加州国的特产,因为不让砍树,为了环保,结果山火大发,然后说这是气候变化造成的,然后新兴行业就此兴隆了

行业大发展,好多人发财,大家贡献,大家自我感觉非常良好,环保了,废物都去第三世界了,out of sight, out of mind.

其实我们这里好多山,好多森林,就是没山火,没有一点climate change。看来我们不在同一个地球

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USATiger
以前也是一样的,大火越烧越近了,你住东部还好,去Utah,Nevada,Arizona 看看吧,加州的未来,高温没水
米奇的厨房
那里一直是那样的,跟气候变化有什么关系啊,加州每年砍一定的树,就不会有那么多山火。

气候就没啥变化了。

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iampig
新装的没有维修的时候,当然千好万好,就像韩国车。
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Sequoia_CA
我们这里不是在说绿色能源吗,所以我指的是电力系统的无功补偿。

试试这个,看看它能解释清楚无功补偿的问题没有?

https://baike.baidu.com/item/无功补偿/10568351

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USATiger
关系太大了,去看西部的大湖现在的水位,是多少年的记录

https://www.vox.com/2016/5/23/11736340/lake-mead-water-drought-southwest

It's a good time to revisit the slow-motion water crunch in the American Southwest. Last week, Lake Mead — a key reservoir that helps supply water for 25 million people in Nevada, Arizona, and California — shrunk to its lowest level ever. And the question of how to grapple with water scarcity is making headlines yet again.

Back in the 20th century, the United States built an army of dams across the West to tame rivers, generate electricity, and store water in reservoirs for cities and farms. This intricate system is why metropolises like Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix have been able to survive in what's basically a desert. Large-scale farming is really only possible in California's Imperial Valley or central Arizona because of these dams.

But rising demand and 16 years of drought have put a severe strain on this system. Dean Farrell has created a terrific interactive map showing how key reservoirs in the West have seen their water levels drop dramatically of late:

 

The size of the circles is proportional to the capacity of the reservoir.

 (Dean Farrell)

Check out California first. Many of the state's reservoirs fell below 50 percent during its recent (and brutal) drought. Last winter's El Niño brought heavy rains to the northern part of the state, refilling reservoirs there. But reservoirs in the south remain depleted — and the state's water woes, while partly alleviated, haven't gone away.

Now let's focus on those two huge red circles near Arizona: Lake Mead and Lake Powell. These gigantic reservoirs, which help store and supply water from the Colorado River to farmland and cities throughout the Southwest, are in rough shape. On Thursday, Lake Mead officially hit its lowest level ever, just 1,074.6 feet above sea level. (The last record low came a year ago, in May 2015.)

That's a big deal. If water levels at Lake Mead continue to plummet, the federal government could declare an official water shortage and force (potentially) painful cutbacks. The good news is that policymakers are aware of this and discussing ways to stave off crisis — though it won't be easy. That vast system that once allowed vegetables, lawns, and golf courses to flourish in the desert no longer works the way it used to.

Lake Mead, a crucial reservoir, is at record lows  

The Hoover Dam.

 (Shutterstock)

In 1936, the federal government completed the Hoover Dam, which blocked the flow of the unruly Colorado River and created Lake Mead, a giant reservoir meant to fill up during rainy years and supply needed water during dry years. Later, in the 1950s, the government built the Glen Canyon Dam even further upstream to create Lake Powell, to help store and regulate water supplies.

Water from these two reservoirs gets divvied up between California, Nevada, Arizona, and Mexico according to a longstanding set of agreements1. California has built aqueducts to carry the lake's water to Los Angeles and San Diego and farms in the Imperial Valley. Meanwhile, Las Vegas gets 90 percent of its water from the lake.

Then there's Arizona. In 1968, Congress approved the Central Arizona Project, a series of aqueducts that would transport 1.6 million acre-feet of Colorado River water down into central and south Arizona and help nurture farms and cities like Phoenix and Tucson. The state as we know it today simply wouldn't exist without this project.

But as John Fleck, a terrific writer on water issues who has been covering the Colorado River for many years, explained in 2015, there was a catch. In order to win support from California politicians, the Arizona project's backers had to agree to a key condition: in the event of a water shortage, California would get first dibs on the Colorado River's water. Arizona would move to the back of the line.

Now, for the first time, a shortage looks plausible. Water levels at Lake Mead had already been dropping for years, as more and more users have been overdrawing its water. More recently, drought and extreme heat have been adding to the strain. With less snow in the mountains, there's less water flowing into Lake Powell, which in turn is delivering less water downstream to Lake Mead.

Add it up, and Lake Mead is down to just 37.5 percent capacity:

 

(Dean Farrell)

When Lake Mead was at its fullest, the water reached an elevation of 1,220 feet above sea level. In May 2016, it was down to just 1,074.6 feet — the lowest level since the dam was built.

Federal officials say they expect water levels to keep dropping this summer but then rise above 1,075 feet before the start of 2017. If levels remain below 1,075 feet by the start of the year, however, the US government will declare an official shortage. That increasingly seems likely — if not in 2017, then in 2018. And once that happens, the real fun begins.

What a Lake Mead water shortage would mean for Arizona, Nevada, and California

So what would an official "shortage" mean in practice? On this, everyone should read this post by Fleck. As he notes, a shortage at Lake Mead under current rules would mainly affect Arizona. However, there's also a major effort underway to rethink those rules.

Under the 1968 agreement, Arizona has to cut back on water use before anyone else. And, Fleck explains, the state does have a plan for this. The Central Arizona Project would continue to keep water flowing to cities like Phoenix and Tucson, Indian tribes, and high-priority agriculture. But it would cut back on "low-priority" agriculture and delay refills to groundwater storage:

 

(Central Arizona Project)

In 2015, Summer Pauli of the Tucson Sentinel wrote a great piece on what those cuts might look like. Some Arizona farmers will no doubt conserve water by switching from flood irrigation to more efficient drip irrigation. (Many have already been doing this, though installing these systems can cost more upfront.) Others may try to pump more water from underground aquifers (though Arizona has stricter controls on groundwater pumping than, say, California). Others may just cut back on growing crops like alfalfa.

These cuts won't be apocalyptic, but they won't be minor either. "It’s going to be a very painful cutback when we start losing our water, but we’ll do what we can to survive and that’s all you can do," one farmer told the Sentinel.

Next comes Nevada. Las Vegas — which gets 90 percent of its water from Lake Mead — is likely to be okay for the time being. City officials have been watching the lake's levels drop for years and have already taken steps to curtail water use 30 percent over the past decade, not least by providing incentives for homeowners to replace the grass on their lush lawns with less-thirsty native plants.

Las Vegas has also been building costly new water intake systems so that it can keep drawing water from Lake Mead even if water levels keep dropping further. (When the original intake systems were built, the pipes were essentially too high up; few imagined that reservoir levels would drop this far.)

Finally, there's California. Under the original 1968 agreement, California wouldn't see any cutbacks from the Colorado River until the Central Arizona Project went dry. In the event of an official shortage, Los Angeles, San Diego, and the Imperial Valley would continue to get their full share of Colorado River water for years to come.

But those are the current rules. More recently, officials in Arizona, Nevada, and California have been discussing a brand new agreement that, they hope, would divvy up the Colorado River's increasingly scarce water in a fairer and more sensible way. Under a renegotiated deal, Arizona and Nevada would cut back even more sharply in the event of a shortage — but California would also have to start sharing the burden and make some sacrifices of its own.

As Tony Davis reported for the Arizona Daily Star, the current proposed agreement would see the Central Arizona Project reduce water use up to 15 percent once a shortage is declared at Lake Mead (as opposed to the current 11.5 percent). Arizona officials have also been talking about water cuts to all sectors of the state's economy rather than agriculture alone. Meanwhile, California would need to start reducing water deliveries if levels at Lake Mead dropped about 30 feet lower than they are today, rather than waiting for Arizona to go dry. The bulk of these cuts would likely be borne by farmers in the Imperial Valley.

This is far from a done deal, and negotiating water agreements, both between states and among individual state water districts, is notoriously tricky. (Fleck has another good post about this.) But it's a sign of growing awareness that the current arrangement is no longer viable. Lake Mead is unlikely to survive the status quo.

The looming question: What happens if water shortages get worse in the future?  

Nothing good for boats, that's for sure.

 (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

One big reason these agreements are being rethought is that as the Southwest enters its 16th year of drought, these shrinking reservoirs are becoming harder to dismiss as a temporary blip.

The 1922 agreement that divvied up water from the Colorado River was forged during one of the wettest periods in the past millennia. At the time, people assumed droughts would occur, but they didn't assume droughts would get off-the-charts terrible.

That's increasingly looking like a bad bet. Scientists have uncovered evidence that decades-long "megadroughts" have occurred in the distant past, and could well occur again in the Southwest going forward. And even if that doomsday scenario doesn't come to pass, climate models still expect droughts to get more frequent and severe in the American Southwest if global warming continues apace. There is very likely to be less water to share in the future.

Yet despite all this, Lake Mead's users have been overdrawing water in recent years — essentially assuming that there will be wet years in the future to provide surplus water and recharge the system.

In a separate post, Fleck pointed to an eye-opening presentation by the Central Arizona Project that asks what would happen if water levels at Lake Mead keep dropping — down to 1,000 feet, say. In that case, Las Vegas would face even bigger challenges drawing water from the reservoir. The Hoover Dam would struggle to generate electricity. Arizona, Nevada, and California would all see steeper cuts in water deliveries. Unless, of course, states figure out how to better manage and share their water supplies.

Up until now, there's always been plenty of water from the Colorado River to go around. It's increasingly difficult to take that for granted.

Further reading: Some essential John Fleck posts on Lake Mead hereherehere, and here. Thorough coverage of the (proposed) new Colorado River deal from Tony Davis in the Arizona Daily Star, Ian James in the Desert Sun, and Henry Brean in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. In the New York Times, Abrahm Lustgarten had a fascinating piece on the water experts who think that opening up the Glen Canyon Dam (and draining Lake Powell) could actually help the Southwest save water. It's worth reading.
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USATiger
知识就是力量,看看太阳能装的多和少的地方。我现在所在的城市比以前的城市多的太多了
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Sequoia_CA
对的,电力綫路附近应该允许砍树!
米奇的厨房
人类太拿自己当回事,从地球的历史看,根本没变化
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USATiger
你学习了化学就要说的这么肯定,如果错了呢?well I am not around by then
神龙摆尾
15年之前,并没有这么多的大火。不是简单的砍一些树的问题,事实上这里一直在砍树,而且真正着火的并不是树,而是干透了的草。
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USATiger
Lake Tahoe 这次有许多干死和得病的树。
神龙摆尾
石化能源是亿万年来大自然的累积,里面沉淀了天量的碳。如果人类真的在百年内把这些碳释放到空气中,温室气体会把大部分本应释放到太空的
米奇的厨房
我朋友就是作气候某大拿的博士生毕业的,听了两耳朵

当年忽悠了好多grant

大阿牛
我刚刚看了,我肯定是看懂了

文中说的和我说的没有任何矛盾,我说的就是文中有关功率因素的内容。但是文中概括了更广泛的所谓无功功率概念和补偿设备及方法,其中大部分与太阳能发电无关。

我想确信你是否看过此文并完全看懂了?坦率的说,如果你不是学电的,是很难看懂的。

米奇的厨房
呵呵,我朋友毕业以后就不再干这一行了,不然抓他来跟你讲论文
常谈
Global warming造成的灾害已经开始了,可能很多人还觉得和自己关系不大

今后会越来越严重,去年冬天Dallas地区的严寒是一例,这次Ida 造成的暴雨和水灾范围很大,和往年不同。

今年冬天再看会有什么离奇的灾难。

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USATiger
你也不是这么喜欢道听途说,一个忽油你就想信了。我只是说如果你错了,我们的子孙后代就完了
神龙摆尾
辐射留在地球,地球作为一个系统,温度增加,墒增加且不可逆。这是一个可怕的前景,我不在乎政客如何说,但是我尊重科学。
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Sequoia_CA
我是电力工程师。

无论什么神能发电,凡是并入电网的,都需要满足电网系统的功率平衡,否则系统的稳定性就是不可能。

这也是为什么我们时常会听到“电力公司不让你送上网”的原因。(这句话,屋顶装太阳能板的人士记得问一下自已的供应商,特别是忽悠你按20年收益率计算的公司)。

若是你有兴趣,可以搜一下中国西北风力发电的东东,你幸运的话,你可能会读到一个术语,它叫“废风”。

神龙摆尾
正是这样,不管别人如何说,我会继续努力,尽自己的一份力。对新生事物有怀疑很正常,大家多多交流就好。
常谈
人口上了3.8亿?增长这么快?

还带回阿富汗人,德州政府还不让abortion,不得了

神龙摆尾
这是我支持的为数不多的民主党政策之一,尽管我投了共和党一票。
大阿牛
说说我的观察和体会,不一定对

我刚去湾区儿子家小住了两周,以前也去了好多次。我儿子是IT行业,不是高管是高薪。他两年前安装了太阳能,有补贴,没贷款,总额大约2万左右,现在每月基本没有电费,如果用的省,还可以赚几块。

我观察的他住的小区,超过一半以上的住户都安装了太阳能。湾区这边的屋顶都是瓦的,适用寿命长,屋顶本身的承重能力强。所以所谓换屋顶麻烦,屋顶承重能力不够的顾虑是不存在的。而且加州阳光充足,发电效率比其他地区都高。

反观我们亚特兰大,几乎很少看到安装太阳能的,我家也没有安装。我个人认为房屋的设计和材料与此有关。我们这里的屋顶基本上是shingles,屋顶的承重能力在设计上肯定不如加州的。而且这种油毡屋顶20-25年的寿命,所以会有换屋顶的麻烦。再说,亚特兰大的电费比加州也便宜很多,这也许也是一个重要原因吧。

 

大阿牛
你是电力工程师,你应该知道,各家太阳能电力并入电网也不是各家私自并网的,是电力公司去并网的,并按照输入功率计费的,多退少补。
U
USATiger
对太阳能瓦房多,我说的是加州的两个小城市,相距不远,有一个是全国有名的高知城,邻居装太阳能的是很平常的事
U
USATiger
加州科技还是全球领先的,这个应该没有疑问,不然的话大家不要apple 和google 了
米奇的厨房
他的老板就是这个方向大拿教授,前面几位的

后来也后悔了,哎,不说了,让加州国的同学们感觉好一下吧

米奇的厨房
你说的非常的政治正确!
U
USATiger
现在打针,美国不是反对也有许多,我个人选择相信大多数的科学家,再说了,to on safe side 没错吧?这可是个天大的事情
S
Sequoia_CA
用脚投票,我站在电网一方。

U
USATiger
相信科学吧,比如用风能打水,再用水发电。
大阿牛
无论是风电还是太阳能发电并网,在短时期内只占电力输出的很小一部分,同时这也是对电网工程提出的新课题和新挑战。人类就是在不断的探索
大阿牛
中持续进步的。
S
Sequoia_CA
老忠实般的电力工业,新能源对它并没有挑战,有的话就是钱的问题。如果用钱可以解决的问题,比如阁下愿意电费升价,那我们绝对没有问题。
S
Sequoia_CA
我也赞同哈。
神龙摆尾
这不是政治正确的问题,这是生死存亡的问题,我不在乎政客,但是我尊重科学。
神龙摆尾
在环保领域加州也是领先的。
n
nyjg
There's something called transmission congestion

Electricity wholesale price can be negative 

k
kitfrommars
为什么不可逆?地球史上CO2浓度比现在高的时候多了,不是也降下来了

我对全球变暖是由于人类活动产生的这个statement还属于七分信三分疑,所以不发表意见。只是就事论事针对你这个不可逆的说法

神龙摆尾
地球作为一个系统,温室气体就相当于一个盖子,温室气体越多,盖子就越厚,进来的太阳光还是那么多,出去的因为是长波辐射
神龙摆尾
波长接近温室气体分子尺寸,会被吸收,相当于被盖子挡住了,留在了地球大气层。累计下来,分子热运动平均速率增加,也就意味着温度增高。
神龙摆尾
对于气体来说,什么是温度?温度就是分子热运动的平均速率的宏观体现。远古时期CO2含量很高,因为植物的光合作用降低了浓度,这些碳不
神龙摆尾
会凭空消失,只是以石化能源的形式存于地下。如果我们把它们释放出来,我相信人类大概率挺不过去,也许一些植物可以,也许统统完蛋,这是
神龙摆尾
一个非常可怕的将来。
s
slow_quick
错了,是3.28亿