US Presidents as the political leader of the nation can influence the economy through their policies, but their influence to the stock market is very marginal. People will argue when a president from Republican Party with its conservative view on economy will translate to the stock market gain, vice versa, a president from Democratic Party will be bad for the stock market. Let’s take a look at S&P index returns under both Republican and Democratic presidents for the past 28 years, and recessions during that time.
US Presidents as the political leader of the nation can influence the economy through their policies, but their influence to the stock market is very marginal. People will argue when a president from Republican Party with its conservative view on economy will translate to the stock market gain, vice versa, a president from Democratic Party will be bad for the stock market. Let’s take a look at S&P index returns under both Republican and Democratic presidents for the past 28 years, and recessions during that time.
President
Date
S&P
Date
S&P
%
Recession
Clinton 1st Term
20-Jan-93
435
17-Jan-97
776
78%
No
Clinton 2nd Term
20-Jan-97
776
19-Jan-01
1,343
73%
No
Bush 1st Term
22-Jan-01
1,343
19-Jan-05
1,185
-12%
No
Bush 2nd Term
20-Jan-05
1,185
16-Jan-09
850
-28%
Yes
Obama 1st Term
20-Jan-09
850
18-Jan-13
1,486
75%
No
Obama 2nd Term
22-Jan-13
1,486
19-Jan-17
2,264
52%
No
Trump
20-Jan-17
2,270
07-Oct-20
3,419
51%
Yes
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有人要看全部的历史，其实有不少机构都研究过，在民主党当总统的时候美国的经济要比共和党好，最好的时候是民主党总统，共和党国会。
还是那句话别只看税多高，要看最终你的收入是多少。人一生很短，俺经历了里根尾巴俩布什克林顿奥巴马和川普，川普其实不能算典型的共和党，应该算无党派。川普的股市可是最令人胆战心惊的。俺交过40%的税却是年收入最高的时候，俺交过25%的税却是收入最惨的时候.，所以俺不在乎税率是多少
文学城这么敌对疯狂的，人家政治世家都不至于象有些人那样咬牙切齿吧，大富豪们也是一颗红心两种准备，两边捐款。。。
有两个因素，一是总统的经济政策产生的效果有后滞性，Bill Clinton时期经济从萧条开始复苏，得益于Reagan-Bush 时期12年的经济政策，把利率从%10几降下来，另一个是共和党总统时期往往债市较好，富裕阶层靠债市生活的比例高，而民主党总统时期股市较好，代表中层阶级的利益。