Just an hour ago, I solemnly announced to my kid that "you will have a new president, and you will be able to vote for one next time. Time flies!" My dear and lovely wife timely cut into our unfinished business. "川普必赢” as we were told. She was stuck perhaps somewhere yesterday. Obviously we now have a family problem to resolve. She needs to travel fast to find her family now.
more than 1.6 million of those ballots were from registered Democrats, 586, 000 were from Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters.
11:25 p.m. Ballots still being counted in Metro Atlanta Fulton, Clayton, Chatham, DeKalb and Gwinnett counties all were counting absentee ballots late Wednesday. Statewide, there were about 90,000 ballots that needed to be counted, according to the secretary of state’s office.
At least 600,000 ballots remained to be counted in Arizona as of 11 a.m. Wednesday, according to an Arizona Republic survey of country recorders.
County recorders had told The Republic early Wednesday that they had at least 400,000 ballots remaining to count, but Maricopa County officials didn't yet know the number of mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day.
Megan Gilbertson, the Elections Department spokeswoman, confirmed the number of mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day totaled between 160,000 and 180,000. That along with additional information from the state's rural counties pushed the number of ballots left to count above 600,000.
The Republic obtained figures from 12 of Arizona's 15 counties, and not all of those election officials were able to provide a full tally of outstanding early and provisional ballots. Three counties still had not confirmed their totals on Wednesday morning.
【 在 wewill2009 (daluobe) 的大作中提到: 】 : Just an hour ago, I solemnly announced to my kid that "you will have a new : president, and you will be able to vote for one next time. Time flies!" My : dear and lovely wife timely cut into our unfinished business. "川普必赢” as : we were told. She was stuck perhaps somewhere yesterday. Obviously we now : have a family problem to resolve. She needs to travel fast to find her : family now.
半小时前 Georgia还有3万6千多票未计 https://sos.ga.gov/ With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 5:45 p.m. today there are approximately 36,331 ballots still outstanding.“Officials in numerous counties are continuing to count ballots
WITH 18,936 VOTES OUT, OFFICIALS FOCUSED ON GETTING IT RIGHT Posted: Thursday, November 05th 2020 in : Elections With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 7:15 p.m. today there are approximately 18,936 ballots still outstanding
With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 10:35 p.m. today there are approximately 14,097 ballots still outstanding.
With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 8:15 a.m. today there are approximately 8,197 ballots still outstanding.
Cobb County: 700 Floyd County: 444 Gwinnett County: 4,800 Laurens County: 1,797 Taylor County: 456 An additional approximately 8,900 military and overseas absentee ballots have been sent out to requesters but not yet returned. Such ballots, if postmarked by Election Day, can be accepted within three days of Election Day.
拜登可能会多拿4百万选票
但可能这样输掉:244对297
连宾州都会拿不下。最后在那里可能会差20万选票。
除非mail-in ballot让拜登戏剧翻盘
基本上还是传统的白人老区，由于有更高的选举权重，再一次决定了美国的总统人选
疫情会继续让世界深度焦虑，在国家之间、国家内部甚至家庭关系上。影响将会很广。
哪个上台都不会对美国有长远的好处
川普会把债务巨坑继续深挖，让未来的美国人背锅
美元对人民币长期可能会继续贬值（中国对美贸易比重会下降，对欧盟和东盟等会加强,在疫情下中国会加大发展中部和西部经济--在继续开辟基础建设尤其是多种交通路线）
哪个在台上都不会对中国好
拜登上台可能会更糟。副总统是半个印度人。而Pelosi是一贯的反中者。疫情没尽头，反中不会减弱。
欧美关系会继续尴尬。美国是传统的联盟伙伴，但是同一个总统会继续不被欧洲的主体喜欢。
一觉醒来
拜登很可能戏剧翻了天，而且popular votes可能会赢过800万
270对269或更好
如果老拜上台，希望senate仍然被共和党把持，继续两党激烈斗争，让世界安定
如果拜登不上台，也许美国的竞选机制会被强烈质疑
看上去Georgia和Pennsylvania翻盘的可能都有
无论如何，早点结束吧
如果拜登赢了，实至名归，毕竟多了好几百万选票。不过，他赢与太多的人比较单纯不喜欢老船有不小关系。
如果川普赢了，美国的新世纪的选举继续显示大选基本只是个有点复杂的社会活动游戏，别太认真
华人两边都投是好事。太偏重一边是害己。
我家里只有我老婆一张选票，过去是民主党，后来是independent，再后来是共和党，
现在可能是无所谓党，老船的众多信件一封封没开就被她扔进了回收箱。我从来不问她是否投票，但她过去喜欢跟我说，今年安静了。
加州蓝得发黑，跟其它深蓝大区代表发展和未来。长期下去美国整体偏蓝是大趋势，不是保守的白人深红老区能够抵挡得了的。人口增长也会让更多地方有新移民，更加城市化。美国的人口结构会继续发生重大改变。黑人是深蓝，拉丁是明显偏蓝，开放或教育程度较高的白人偏蓝。
拜登已经有270票（算入Nevada）
Looks like this time electoral vote and popular vote are in agreement.
Georgia变蓝的可能性不低
只差不到6万票
还有2个蓝区可以提供2万5
还剩4%左右的票没有计入
（还剩7%的时候差距是30多万）
关键是不知mail-in票还有多少
Just an hour ago, I solemnly announced to my kid that "you will have a new
president, and you will be able to vote for one next time. Time flies!" My
dear and lovely wife timely cut into our unfinished business. "川普必赢” as we were told. She was stuck perhaps somewhere yesterday. Obviously we now
have a family problem to resolve. She needs to travel fast to find her
family now.
Georgia will likely turn blue
Georgia still has 90,000 unaccounted mail-in ballots. About 76% of them are from very blue counties.
Georgia is similar to Pennsylvania， regarding how roughly close the
presidential race is in the two states.
In PA, there were 1.6 million mail-in votes from democrats, while 586,000
from Republicans.
1.6/(1.6+0.586) = 0.73
0.73-(1-0.73)=0.46 is the advantage of blue votes over red votes
Base on the above-mentioned number, 76%, we can safely say that Biden will
gain over Trump by at least
90,000*0.46=41,000
A few hours ago, I checked the Fox News. Biden was 30,000 votes behind. The above figure of 41,000 is significantly enough to cover the deficit.
Therefore, it is likely Biden will take Georgia.
It is very tight. Trump may ask for a recount.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/democrats-return-nearly-three-times-as-many-mail-in-ballots-as-republicans-in-pennsylvania/ar-BB1aF18z?li=
BBnb7Kz
more than 1.6 million of those ballots were from registered Democrats, 586,
000 were from Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters.
https://www.ajc.com/politics/about-200000-absentee-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted-in-georgia/BYGJAXV5FRBGBAMA6JPIC7ZL34/
Last updated 10:55 p.m. on Nov. 4
About 76% of outstanding absentees are in Fulton, Clayton, Chatham, DeKalb
and Gwinnett counties.
(These are all blue counties, with 58% to 83% of the respective votes going to Biden -- so far.)
https://www.ajc.com/politics/live-updates-what-the-ajcs-politics-team-is-
watching-in-georgia/MCYDKE7DQFGERJFDFYGG3VGZYQ/
11:25 p.m.
Ballots still being counted in Metro Atlanta
Fulton, Clayton, Chatham, DeKalb and Gwinnett counties all were counting
absentee ballots late Wednesday. Statewide, there were about 90,000 ballots that needed to be counted, according to the secretary of state’s office.
At this moment, Trump is just 23,000 votes ahead.
Wow.
Biden后来居上的原因主要有二
民主党选民大多在人口较多、密度较高的地方，完成计票需要的时间长
mail-in票数基本在后面才开始计入，民主党选民用mail-in的比例比共和党高2-3倍甚
至更高。结合上面，完成计票需要的时间长
Nevada故意停止公布票数（基本上也是mail-ins，也就是蓝票）
可能是被人指点，与Arizona合作维护和平
明天几个州实际上一起出结果，
一起最后承担川普落选的责任比较好受
有人说Arizona可能要翻红
可能性几乎为零
Arizona是提前计票的州，在竞选前2个星期开始
现在还有(2870000/88*12)=39万票没有计入
其中还有不少是最后一天16万以上的mail-ins
川普要赶上来要有这样的优势：
0.5+68/(2870/88*12)/2=0.5868=58.7%
对
1-0.5868= 41.3%
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/
At least 600,000 ballots remained to be counted in Arizona as of 11 a.m.
Wednesday, according to an Arizona Republic survey of country recorders.
County recorders had told The Republic early Wednesday that they had at
least 400,000 ballots remaining to count, but Maricopa County officials didn't yet know the number of mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day.
Megan Gilbertson, the Elections Department spokeswoman, confirmed the number of mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day totaled between 160,000 and 180,000. That along with additional information from the state's rural
counties pushed the number of ballots left to count above 600,000.
The Republic obtained figures from 12 of Arizona's 15 counties, and not all of those election officials were able to provide a full tally of outstanding early and provisional ballots. Three counties still had not confirmed their totals on Wednesday morning.
各位中国将军、米国将军，AZ还没底定，百登只领先弱六万八千多，但是AZ还有超过28万票未开!!!!!
老兄，好心提醒一句：在家里最好别谈政治
也最好别试图影响下一代，尤其是夫妻二人立场截然相反的情形
不过，你俩挺逗的，呵呵
【 在 wewill2009 (daluobe) 的大作中提到: 】
: Just an hour ago, I solemnly announced to my kid that "you will have a new
: president, and you will be able to vote for one next time. Time flies!" My
: dear and lovely wife timely cut into our unfinished business. "川普必赢” as
: we were told. She was stuck perhaps somewhere yesterday. Obviously we now
: have a family problem to resolve. She needs to travel fast to find her
: family now.
米国现在最大的问题不在红或者蓝，而在从未有过的激烈党争。任何一方上台都做不了事，党争高于一切。这种情况不改变，国必亡。
【在 wewill2009(daluobe)的大作中提到：】
：
：一觉醒来
【 在 iWater (aspire to inspire before i expire) 的大作中提到: 】
: 老兄，好心提醒一句：在家里最好别谈政治
: 也最好别试图影响下一代，尤其是夫妻二人立场截然相反的情形
: 不过，你俩挺逗的，呵呵
: as
政治在我们家不是问题。从来不会伤感情。双方如果有很不同，会很快disengage。“
我不跟你说了”。我们都不是"记仇"的人。
我和我老婆几乎不谈政治
我从来不主动跟她谈
如果我老婆主动谈起来，我们也是速谈速断，不会超过2分钟
她非常民主党(热心欧巴马，更热心过希拉里)的时候，我提醒她应该更靠中，但不想改变她，而且改变不了
她很共和党的时候，我也同样提醒她向中间，更提醒她不要在人前谈政治，尤其是在我们这深蓝地区(湾区近80%蓝)
我有个邻居喜欢跟我提政治，偏民主党，我也是尽量保持偏中。他跟我老婆互相争过。哈哈。我们2家关系非常好，我们有他们的备用钥匙，出远门会帮他们关照小事。
如果我入籍，就会是整体中间偏左，就议题而论，不会一概而论。我不是很关心政治，更对后面的数字比较感兴趣。我更关心经济，而且一般不只是短期。
我跟我小孩稍许谈，但不涉及内容，而只希望她能看到两边整体的问题和长处，希望她不要像我们家老板那样在政治上比较情绪化。小孩确实做到了。上高中的小孩好像一般自己都多少关心政治，会去看选举。在学校里有Government之类的课。
今天是5号
在选举日发出的一些mail-in票可能今天还没有可能计完
还有其它的一些票可能也没有
还有可能不知如何处理disputed的（也许包括已经被暂时rejiected的，或者搁置的）票
可能还有一个多星期才能尘埃落定
这些情况对非常接近的州来说是很重要的
很可能Georgia和Pennsylvania里至少有一个是
Nevada和Arizona的结果应该没有太大的悬念
希望它们公布结果，虽然还会有残余选票没有计入
非常棒
【 在 wewill2009 (daluobe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 政治在我们家不是问题。从来不会伤感情。双方如果有很不同，会很快disengage。“
: 我不跟你说了”。我们都不是"记仇"的人。
: 我和我老婆几乎不谈政治
: 我从来不主动跟她谈
: 如果我老婆主动谈起来，我们也是速谈速断，不会超过2分钟
: 她非常民主党(热心欧巴马，更热心过希拉里)的时候，我提醒她应该更靠中，但不想改
: 变她，而且改变不了
: 她很共和党的时候，我也同样提醒她向中间，更提醒她不要在人前谈政治，尤其是在我
: 们这深蓝地区(湾区近80%蓝)
: 我有个邻居喜欢跟我提政治，偏民主党，我也是尽量保持偏中。他跟我老婆互相争过。
: ...................
Trump在Georgia只领先不到1万4
不知还剩多少选票
在Pennsylvania只领先12万多
还有13%选票被待计
【 在 iWater (aspire to inspire before i expire) 的大作中提到: 】
: 非常棒
谢谢提醒
作为比较靠中的人，我对激烈闹腾的选举觉得很有趣，而不是闹心，无论谁赢。不能理解有些人的政治狂热。但我觉得得票总数高出不少的人应该当选，否则会感到不平。如果这次拜登落选，我可能以后对选举的背景数据都不会再感兴趣了。
事不过三啊。
我觉得党性重合度很高的2口子也应该少谈政治，
会互相加强偏向性，影响判断力
过去我老婆看多了政治辩论节目后，会喜欢跟人在其它方面辩论。不知大家在家里有没有类似情况。
但我老婆有一点特好：从来不大声，从来没说过脏话。只是说过“你死去吧”或者“你去死吧”。我每次听倒这句，就回到了小时候，不过那时候一般听到的是对别人。哈哈
10几个小时前mail-in还有9万未计入
现在还有6万未计入
差距降了一半，现在是1万5
这样下去，拜登会领先1万多（跟我前面的估计一致）
https://www.ajc.com/politics/about-200000-absentee-ballots-still-need-to-be-counted-in-georgia/BYGJAXV5FRBGBAMA6JPIC7ZL34/
Over 60,000 absentee ballots remained to be counted in Georgia on Thursday
as Joe Biden pulled within 15,000 votes of President Donald Trump.
Most of these uncounted absentee ballots are concentrated in highly
populated areas, led by Fulton County in Atlanta and Chatham County in
Savannah.
There were over 11,000 ballots pending in Fulton and 17,000 in Chatham on
Thursday morning, according to the secretary of state’s office.
Nevada说下星期才处理选举日的寄票，因为可能有些票还没收到。
Arizona的一个大蓝县今晚9点后会公布更多结果
你都没入籍，谈个p的政治。
这不就跟vegetarian谈我要是改吃荤，今天是吃鱼还是吃肉一样
【 在 wewill2009 (daluobe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 政治在我们家不是问题。从来不会伤感情。双方如果有很不同，会很快disengage。“
: 我不跟你说了”。我们都不是"记仇"的人。
: 我和我老婆几乎不谈政治
: 我从来不主动跟她谈
: 如果我老婆主动谈起来，我们也是速谈速断，不会超过2分钟
: 她非常民主党(热心欧巴马，更热心过希拉里)的时候，我提醒她应该更靠中，但不想改
: 变她，而且改变不了
: 她很共和党的时候，我也同样提醒她向中间，更提醒她不要在人前谈政治，尤其是在我
: 们这深蓝地区(湾区近80%蓝)
: 我有个邻居喜欢跟我提政治，偏民主党，我也是尽量保持偏中。他跟我老婆互相争过。
: ...................
【 在 redmeat (jumper) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你都没入籍，谈个p的政治。
: 这不就跟vegetarian谈我要是改吃荤，今天是吃鱼还是吃肉一样
什么逻辑？
我关心的不真正是政治，而是涉及的经济和生活本身
美国的政治会影响
我的生活，
我家里人的生活
我在美国亲戚的生活
和其它华人或在美中国人的生活
也会影响中国国内人的生活
在Georgia
川普领先不到9千6百
还有2%票没有计入
如此接近，应该要到所有合格的票收齐全。全部计票后才好决定是否定赢家，或者重新计票。
剩下的几万票是mail-in是和provisional票。
不是99%了吗？那还有2%
【 在 wewill2009 (daluobe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 在Georgia
: 川普领先不到9千6百
: 还有2%票没有计入
: 如此接近，应该要到所有合格的票收齐全。全部计票后才好决定是否定赢家，或者重新
: 计票。
: 剩下的几万票是mail-in是和provisional票。
在Pennsylvania，
川普领先9万多一点
还有7%的票未计
【 在 addadd99 (口罩无用) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不是99%了吗？那还有2%
google， fox，yahoo，和ap说99%
ny times和cnn说98%
Georgia官方上一次更新说还有4万7。我发贴的时候可能还有3万票
全都是估计。有些mail-in的票还在路上。因此官方一般都说票数会变。
【 在 wewill2009 (daluobe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 在Pennsylvania，
: 川普领先9万多一点
: 还有7%的票未计
领先不到8万了
还剩7%
变化真快
老船看2州看得更加揪心
现在全美名声最响的2个老人
对数字的兴趣在不断攀升
半小时前
Georgia还有3万6千多票未计
https://sos.ga.gov/
With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 5:45 p.m. today there are
approximately 36,331 ballots still outstanding.“Officials in numerous
counties are continuing to count ballots
在Georgia的差距不到3千7
在Pennsylvania的差距不到6万5
2个里头至少会掉一个
拜登在总票数上会多出6百万上下
川普应该缓和起来，让狂热的跟从者们有时间冷静下来，在周末认了
Georgia还有接近1万9千票
按照上面的速度，拜登可以净增6千7。胜出3千。
非常非常接近
还要等在路上mail-in和provisional
如果川普不认输，就要recount
希望Nevada和Arizona明天实际结束，不要再顾忌了
move on。。。
https://sos.ga.gov/
WITH 18,936 VOTES OUT, OFFICIALS FOCUSED ON GETTING IT RIGHT
Posted: Thursday, November 05th 2020 in : Elections
With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 7:15 p.m. today there are
approximately 18,936 ballots still outstanding
Trump在Arizona从8万多差距追到了4万7
现在还有29万票。
原来有60万票的时候，里面有16万以上是选举日的mail-in票（在今年，一般是对民主
党很有利的票）。不知到那些mail-in票还剩下多少。如果已经很少（那就奇怪了），
那么川普可以把差距减小很多，甚至反超。
按你这逻辑，全世界60亿人都应该有美国总统投票权
【 在 wewill2009 (daluobe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 什么逻辑？
: 我关心的不真正是政治，而是涉及的经济和生活本身
: 美国的政治会影响
: 我的生活，
: 我家里人的生活
: 我在美国亲戚的生活
: 和其它华人或在美中国人的生活
: 也会影响中国国内人的生活
按你这逻辑，全世界60亿人都应该有美国总统投票权
【 在 wewill2009 (daluobe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 什么逻辑？
: 我关心的不真正是政治，而是涉及的经济和生活本身
: 美国的政治会影响
: 我的生活，
: 我家里人的生活
: 我在美国亲戚的生活
: 和其它华人或在美中国人的生活
: 也会影响中国国内人的生活
【 在 redmeat (jumper) 的大作中提到: 】
: 按你这逻辑，全世界60亿人都应该有美国总统投票权
你原来的逻辑是：我不是美国公民，因此不应该出于美国的政治走向对我和我的族群的影响而关心选举
我的逻辑是：直接会影响我和我族群人的生活，因此我关心。
你对我的逻辑的解释是：尽管直接会影响我和我族群人的生活，我要关心就得有选举权。外推是：印度人和巴基斯坦人应该互相选举对手的政府。巴勒斯坦人与以色列人也是。乌克兰人和俄罗斯人也是。土耳其人与亚美尼亚人也是。。。。
Pennsylvania翻蓝，蓝区的未计票比例稍微更低些，川普再翻回去的可能性不高
Georgia也变蓝，Clayton的票计入了，剩下的票也是蓝区多，川普也是很难翻回去
太接近。川普好像会誓不罢休。要重新计票的可能性不小。
https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/with_14097_votes_out_officials_
focused_on_getting_it_right
With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 10:35 p.m. today there are
approximately 14,097 ballots still outstanding.
Clayton County: 4,355
Cobb County: 700
Floyd County: 444
Forsyth County: 1,545
Gwinnett County: 4,800
Laurens County: 1,797
Taylor County: 456
如果按照投票现状估算，不算military的票，拜登会多出1500上下的票
如果假设基本都是邮寄票，不算military的票，拜登会多出3000票
算上military，上面的2种情况大致是
川普领先1500上下
两人几乎完全持平，稍微有一点偏向拜登
因此，Georgia还没完。两人都有可能落后而要求recount。
但是，Nevada和Arizona应该还是拜登的。
Georgia和Pennsylvania都在免费recount的范围。
因此川普还要到别的州去找票。
https://sos.ga.gov/index.php/elections/with_8197_votes_out_officials_focused_on_getting_it_right
With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said that as of 8:15 a.m. today there are
approximately 8,197 ballots still outstanding.
Cobb County: 700
Floyd County: 444
Gwinnett County: 4,800
Laurens County: 1,797
Taylor County: 456
An additional approximately 8,900 military and overseas absentee ballots
have been sent out to requesters but not yet returned. Such ballots, if
postmarked by Election Day, can be accepted within three days of Election
Day.