You are overthinking it. No market maker accumulates shares and then sells at a later date/week/month. That's not market making, that's gambling. W/ very few exceptions, most of the time they balance their buys and sells within seconds. Very rarely do they go into hours. That's called risk management - market makers use their own (or their firm's) money and their goal is to stay neutral and earning money on the spread. They generally have to close their books by the end of each day.
I've said this before, stopping thinking there's some all-seeing stock market gods that knows exactly what he's doing every second. That's pure fiction. Everyday there are winners and losers, and tomorrow there will be another set of winners and losers. Very very rarely do the same winner appear consistently, although there are certainly a lot of losers than appear consistently. lol.
There are market makers (MMs), and there are entities that can and will influence the market. What I referred to as 庄家 are the latter; I will use ZJ to denote 庄家。Below is what I think about MMs and ZJs.
I am still in the process of figuring out the roles MMs play. If their role is solely there to provide liquidity for the market and try to stay afloat by super short term strategies, then I can simply remove them from my consideration. Whether MMs have ulterior motives can be a separate topic of discussion.
What I was wondering was the ZJs, the ones who are ready (and powerful enough) to manipulate the market. They could be big institutions, ETFs, or individual people with enough net worth. Maybe, just maybe, some MMs are ZJs, although this does not affect what we are discussing now.
Do ZJs exist? I think so. In any market, given the opportunities, people try to sway the market to their advantage. This is just human nature. Especially in stock markets, where people from all over the globe buy, sell, and speculate constantly, those who are in position to manipulate the market will definitely try to use their power for personal gains.
So, in my opinion, denying the existence of ZJs is just oversimplifying the situation. Without listing the ways/tricks ZJs deploy to manipulate the market (not that I know all of them), let's just say that ZJs are willing and ready to play tricks to the market all the time.
So again, I was not saying the MMs are ZJs, although some MMs could be ZJs. By definition, anyone with enough funds/powers who plan on manipulating and milking the market are ZJs.
【 在 alertipo (alertipo) 的大作中提到: 】 : You are overthinking it. No market maker accumulates shares and then sells : at a later date/week/month. That's not market making, that's gambling. W/ : very few exceptions, most of the time they balance their buys and sells : within seconds. Very rarely do they go into hours. That's called risk : management - market makers use their own (or their firm's) money and their : goal is to stay neutral and earning money on the spread. They generally : have to close their books by the end of each day. : I've said this before, stopping thinking there's some all-seeing stock : market gods that knows exactly what he's doing every second. That's pure : fiction. Everyday there are winners and losers, and tomorrow there will be : ...................
There's huge difference b/w "manipulating" and "successfully manipulating".
Everyone manipulates the market - even the robinhood/reddit crowd. And even they are successful sometimes. Do the big firms have advantages? sure. Are they successful at times? yep. So by "zj" if you are just referring to those big institutional accounts who has certain edges, I have no disagreement. But my main point is no one, I repeat, no one do it successfully day in and day out. In another word, there's no all-seeing stock market oracle whose purpose in life is to trap everyone else successfully everyday. If such oracle exists, it wouldn't take someone more than 48 hrs to become a trillionaire while cornering the market.
Bottomline, big accounts exists, manipulation of all types exists. But at least for a mature market such as the USA's, all types of manipulation tend to have the effect of canceling each other out, so no one has any type of permanent advantage and no one can read it consistently. Thinking that market is constantly playing tricks can be debilitating - maybe the trap is to make it look like a trap so to take advantage of you avoiding the trap, or maybe it's double, triple, or even quadruple contrarian trap... where do you stop?
There's also a lot of randomness in the stock market - by always attributing it to someone trapping you, you are assigning patterns where it may not even exist and "learn" the wrong lesson. In a nutshell, that's one of the biggest pitfall of rookie traders. Your experience is valuable - but only if you look it through the right lens.
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】 : Thanks for sharing your thoughts. : There are market makers (MMs), and there are entities that can and will : influence the market. What I referred to as 庄家 are the latter; I will use : ZJ to denote 庄家。Below is what I think about MMs and ZJs. : I am still in the process of figuring out the roles MMs play. If their role : is solely there to provide liquidity for the market and try to stay afloat : by super short term strategies, then I can simply remove them from my : consideration. Whether MMs have ulterior motives can be a separate topic of : discussion. : What I was wondering was the ZJs, the ones who are ready (and powerful : ...................
【 在 alertipo (alertipo) 的大作中提到: 】 : There's huge difference b/w "manipulating" and "successfully manipulating". : Everyone manipulates the market - even the robinhood/reddit crowd. And even : they are successful sometimes. Do the big firms have advantages? sure. Are : they successful at times? yep. So by "zj" if you are just referring to : those big institutional accounts who has certain edges, I have no : disagreement. But my main point is no one, I repeat, no one do it : successfully day in and day out. In another word, there's no all-seeing : stock market oracle whose purpose in life is to trap everyone else : successfully everyday. If such oracle exists, it wouldn't take someone more : than 48 hrs to become a trillionaire while cornering the market. : ...................
Now that we have had the terminologies straightened up, we actually have more in agreement than in disagreement.
My point in the top post is that those big ZJs (big institutions, big ETFs, etc.) are not there united trying to make a profit on the small retail investors. When some big ZJs dump their stocks to lock in profit, some other big ZJs might take the opportunity to load their boats. It's just like the animals in a jungle.
Sure, there are patterns for people to discover. After all, we are all human, sharing some of the same predispositions when it comes to fear and greed, etc.
【 在 alertipo (alertipo) 的大作中提到: 】 : There's huge difference b/w "manipulating" and "successfully manipulating". : Everyone manipulates the market - even the robinhood/reddit crowd. And even : they are successful sometimes. Do the big firms have advantages? sure. Are : they successful at times? yep. So by "zj" if you are just referring to : those big institutional accounts who has certain edges, I have no : disagreement. But my main point is no one, I repeat, no one do it : successfully day in and day out. In another word, there's no all-seeing : stock market oracle whose purpose in life is to trap everyone else : successfully everyday. If such oracle exists, it wouldn't take someone more : than 48 hrs to become a trillionaire while cornering the market. : ...................
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】 : Now that we have had the terminologies straightened up, we actually have : more in agreement than in disagreement. : My point in the top post is that those big ZJs (big institutions, big ETFs, : etc.) are not there united trying to make a profit on the small retail : investors. When some big ZJs dump their stocks to lock in profit, some other : big ZJs might take the opportunity to load their boats. It's just like the : animals in a jungle. : Sure, there are pattern for people to discover. After all, we are all human, : sharing some of the same predispositions when it comes to fear and greed, : etc. : ...................
经常听人说散户的资金量及购买量占市场的份额非常小，但又会听人说庄家在高位把货都卸给小散。
我就疑惑了：既然小三的购买力非常小，庄家怎么能把手中大量的货都卸给小三呢？
所以我的理解如下（说错了请大家指正）：高价位有人（庄家、机构，散户）卸货不假，但接货的绝不只是小散，肯定也有别的庄家或大机构接货。大户们（庄家、机构）资金雄厚不假，比较容易操控左右市场。小散们（相对）购买力小也不假，容易被操纵也不假。但是庄家机构也有大小之分，他们之间其实也是相互利用、相互搏杀的关系，就看risk-reward划不划的来。庄家到散户的划分也是渐变的、模糊的。
我经常在想，用怎样的例子来描述股市中的多方博弈比较恰当。想来想去，个人觉得还是常用的丛林法则比较适当：每个特定股票的交易场就好比是一个丛林（或草原、山岭、海洋、湖湾等，呵呵），里面各种动物们为自身生存做谋划，大动物们可以横冲直撞毫无顾忌，当然大动物之间会有某些默契避免不必要的冲突（因为代价太大）。但是有时由于利益驱使，实力相当的动物之间火并也在所难免。稍小一点的动物只需提防大动物，对别更小一些的动物几乎可以随意蹂躏。食物链更下方的动物们出门走路就要格外小心翼翼，走错了方向就会是致命错误。食物链底层的生物们就更要万分小心了，出门之前一定要卜卦求神、观星象、看黄历、找吉利数字、拿罗盘找方向等。当然了，大一些的动物们也会卜卦求神、观星象、看黄历、找吉利数字、拿罗盘找方向等，因为他们也不是绝对安全的，出来混江湖都是有危险的。即便是丛林里最大的动物，虽然绝大多数情况下自身都是安全的，说向东走别的动物都不敢向西的，但也有担心，比如大环境的变化，丛林生态植被的状态，生物链下层的生物们的整体状况等，而且有时冷不丁还会有别的丛林里过来的能和自己抗衡的大动物、或者是实力远超自己的巨鲸来抢地盘。即便没有其他领地的巨兽来抢地盘，也要担心天灾，比如地震、雪崩、洪水、泥石流等，都是可以要自己亲命的。这些忧虑其实是丛林里所有生物为了自身生存都要关心的。
总之安全都是相对的，危机是永恒的。大动物发威，受害的也不一定肯定就是底层生物，因为大动物的直接攻击捕食对象大多数情况下并不是底层生物。在巨兽们的捕食过程中，低端人口在合适的时间站在了适合的位置可能会受惠，反之就可能会遭殃。但话说回来，低端人口由于（几乎）没有能力左右大局，很大一部分都是被操纵被践踏的角色。所以所有的生物都试图提高自己的实力，有能力了就可以霸占一方水草，衣食无忧。
说了一大堆，其实就是一个丛林法则，呵呵。
底层生物们，尽量少一些相互伤害及嘲讽，多一些相互提携及鼓励。
每个生物的命都是自己决定、自己走出来的。自己命自己定。
出货需要时间，很多时候庄家都是边拉边出货， 要想套住小三Volume必须上去的。
9月份我为什么那么肯定的说纳指短期不会又新高，能到12K就算牛逼。
还有铁丝拉 450-480是强阻力，可以加仓烧。
就是看K线图的交易量，把时间轴放长一点你就懂了。而且铁丝拉跟其他的科技权重股
比量更大。
这么跟你说吧，假如你是庄家你会怎么玩？ 换位思考。
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: 经常听人说散户的资金量及购买量占市场的份额非常小，但又会听人说庄家在高位把货
: 都卸给小散。
: 我就疑惑了：既然小三的购买力非常小，庄家怎么能把手中大量的货都卸给小三呢？: 所以我的理解如下（说错了请大家指正）：高价位有人（庄家、机构，散户）卸货不假
: ，但接货的绝不只是小散，肯定也有别的庄家或大机构接货。大户们（庄家、机构）资
: 金雄厚不假，比较容易操控左右市场。小散们（相对）购买力小也不假，容易被操纵也
: 不假。但是庄家机构也有大小之分，他们之间其实也是相互利用、相互搏杀的关系，就
: 看risk-reward划不划的来。庄家到散户的划分也是渐变的、模糊的。
: 我经常在想，用怎样的例子来描述股市中的多方博弈比较恰当。想来想去，个人觉得还
: 是常用的丛林法则比较适当：每个特定股票的交易场就好比是一个丛林（或草原、山岭
: ...................
Good call on TSLA
Let’s do it again
【 在 aaronhayes (Dr. Zhou) 的大作中提到: 】
: 出货需要时间，很多时候庄家都是边拉边出货， 要想套住小三Volume必须上去的。
: 9月份我为什么那么肯定的说纳指短期不会又新高，能到12K就算牛逼。
: 还有铁丝拉 450-480是强阻力，可以加仓烧。
: 就是看K线图的交易量，把时间轴放长一点你就懂了。而且铁丝拉跟其他的科技权重股
: 比量更大。
: 这么跟你说吧，假如你是庄家你会怎么玩？ 换位思考。
我从不否认看图TA的作用，不否认（有些或者很多）机构会逢高出货割韭菜，不否认庄家会操控市场，也不否认牛牛们的实战经验及直感。
我只是不明白为什么接盘的一定是散户，我觉得也有机构在接盘。因为有机构认为在那个价位值得买入，当然了，这是我的个人推断，不一定对。
我也经常做换位思考，这样有利我更好地理解股市的运行。
假如我是庄家的话，呵呵，那我就不客气了（要知道我是特粉）：我就做我现在正在做的，继续趁机买入，为了不让别的庄家察觉，我会慢慢买入，股价越低越买，然后等特斯拉占领市场。如果我是知名庄家（投资人或投资机构）而且有心利用自己对市场的影响的话，那我还会发舆论，宣传特斯拉的牛掰之处，提高对特斯拉的估值，掀起人们对特斯拉的热情。等股价高了之后我也知道肯定会有庄家机构会套利卖出。如果我有相应的操控力（也有意向）割别人（别的机构）韭菜的话，那就高位出货，然后把股价拉低让被套住的别人（别的机构、别的庄家）割肉，然后走再低价买入，然后循环往复一轮一轮地割别家机构庄家散户的韭菜。我若不想个别家的韭菜，那就长持，同时继续宣传特斯拉的过人之处。
所以，我提的问题不是割不割韭菜。而是问在有机构出货的时候，为什么就全面否认同时有机构接手股票同时准备新一轮拉升的可能。
我也不是说我一定就是对的，但我一定要考虑那种可能性。我现在不加仓，等股价拉上来了我不是又错过了？
不否认，股价可能继续走低，所以我的办法就是继续劫匪盗。这也是没有办法的办法，因为我不知到底在哪里（知道的话就等到底了熬鹰，呵呵）。牛牛们可能有靠谱的估计底部的算法？
但我相信（信仰，呵呵）特斯拉股价会变高，变更高。（唉，我最终也没脱离特粉这一角色。）
可能还是牛眼看牛，熊眼看熊吧。其实熊眼看对了波段也能赚钱，呵呵。没暗指你是铁丝啦熊的意思啊，你算比较中立的。
共同发财。
【 在 aaronhayes (Dr. Zhou) 的大作中提到: 】
: 出货需要时间，很多时候庄家都是边拉边出货， 要想套住小三Volume必须上去的。
: 9月份我为什么那么肯定的说纳指短期不会又新高，能到12K就算牛逼。
: 还有铁丝拉 450-480是强阻力，可以加仓烧。
: 就是看K线图的交易量，把时间轴放长一点你就懂了。而且铁丝拉跟其他的科技权重股
: 比量更大。
: 这么跟你说吧，假如你是庄家你会怎么玩？ 换位思考。
You are overthinking it. No market maker accumulates shares and then sells at a later date/week/month. That's not market making, that's gambling. W/ very few exceptions, most of the time they balance their buys and sells
within seconds. Very rarely do they go into hours. That's called risk
management - market makers use their own (or their firm's) money and their
goal is to stay neutral and earning money on the spread. They generally
have to close their books by the end of each day.
I've said this before, stopping thinking there's some all-seeing stock
market gods that knows exactly what he's doing every second. That's pure
fiction. Everyday there are winners and losers, and tomorrow there will be
another set of winners and losers. Very very rarely do the same winner
appear consistently, although there are certainly a lot of losers than
appear consistently. lol.
蝌蚪兄，你忘了fed这个大象（老鲍自己说的）会接盘
fed要是不接盘早就崩了
如果这次没崩，还谢fed就行了
所以说呀，我基本都是自己思考，不大跟风的，或绝对不会跟风。
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
There are market makers (MMs), and there are entities that can and will
influence the market. What I referred to as 庄家 are the latter; I will use ZJ to denote 庄家。Below is what I think about MMs and ZJs.
I am still in the process of figuring out the roles MMs play. If their role is solely there to provide liquidity for the market and try to stay afloat
by super short term strategies, then I can simply remove them from my
consideration. Whether MMs have ulterior motives can be a separate topic of discussion.
What I was wondering was the ZJs, the ones who are ready (and powerful
enough) to manipulate the market. They could be big institutions, ETFs, or
individual people with enough net worth. Maybe, just maybe, some MMs are ZJs, although this does not affect what we are discussing now.
Do ZJs exist? I think so. In any market, given the opportunities, people try to sway the market to their advantage. This is just human nature.
Especially in stock markets, where people from all over the globe buy, sell, and speculate constantly, those who are in position to manipulate the
market will definitely try to use their power for personal gains.
So, in my opinion, denying the existence of ZJs is just oversimplifying the situation. Without listing the ways/tricks ZJs deploy to manipulate the
market (not that I know all of them), let's just say that ZJs are willing
and ready to play tricks to the market all the time.
So again, I was not saying the MMs are ZJs, although some MMs could be ZJs. By definition, anyone with enough funds/powers who plan on manipulating and milking the market are ZJs.
【 在 alertipo (alertipo) 的大作中提到: 】
: You are overthinking it. No market maker accumulates shares and then
sells
: at a later date/week/month. That's not market making, that's gambling. W/
: very few exceptions, most of the time they balance their buys and sells
: within seconds. Very rarely do they go into hours. That's called risk
: management - market makers use their own (or their firm's) money and their
: goal is to stay neutral and earning money on the spread. They generally
: have to close their books by the end of each day.
: I've said this before, stopping thinking there's some all-seeing stock
: market gods that knows exactly what he's doing every second. That's pure
: fiction. Everyday there are winners and losers, and tomorrow there will be
: ...................
Yes, thanks for reminding me of the Fed. It is a gigantic whale whose
existence nobody should ignore.
【 在 HarvardThief (博后肄业全仓踢球) 的大作中提到: 】
: 蝌蚪兄，你忘了fed这个大象（老鲍自己说的）会接盘
: fed要是不接盘早就崩了
: 如果这次没崩，还谢fed就行了
Good for you.
That said, experiences or lessons from others can be very helpful.
Good night.
【 在 Wodelixiang () 的大作中提到: 】
: 所以说呀，我基本都是自己思考，不大跟风的，或绝对不会跟风。
There's huge difference b/w "manipulating" and "successfully manipulating".
Everyone manipulates the market - even the robinhood/reddit crowd. And even they are successful sometimes. Do the big firms have advantages? sure. Are they successful at times? yep. So by "zj" if you are just referring to
those big institutional accounts who has certain edges, I have no
disagreement. But my main point is no one, I repeat, no one do it
successfully day in and day out. In another word, there's no all-seeing
stock market oracle whose purpose in life is to trap everyone else
successfully everyday. If such oracle exists, it wouldn't take someone more than 48 hrs to become a trillionaire while cornering the market.
Bottomline, big accounts exists, manipulation of all types exists. But at
least for a mature market such as the USA's, all types of manipulation tend to have the effect of canceling each other out, so no one has any type of
permanent advantage and no one can read it consistently. Thinking that
market is constantly playing tricks can be debilitating - maybe the trap is to make it look like a trap so to take advantage of you avoiding the trap,
or maybe it's double, triple, or even quadruple contrarian trap... where do you stop?
There's also a lot of randomness in the stock market - by always attributing it to someone trapping you, you are assigning patterns where it may not
even exist and "learn" the wrong lesson. In a nutshell, that's one of the
biggest pitfall of rookie traders. Your experience is valuable - but only
if you look it through the right lens.
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
: There are market makers (MMs), and there are entities that can and will
: influence the market. What I referred to as 庄家 are the latter; I will
use
: ZJ to denote 庄家。Below is what I think about MMs and ZJs.
: I am still in the process of figuring out the roles MMs play. If their
role
: is solely there to provide liquidity for the market and try to stay afloat
: by super short term strategies, then I can simply remove them from my
: consideration. Whether MMs have ulterior motives can be a separate topic
of
: discussion.
: What I was wondering was the ZJs, the ones who are ready (and powerful
: ...................
美股三大户是机构，美联储，散户。谁也没有说机构就一定每年挣钱，大跌的时候赔的也多。美股的好处是长期是增长的，大家的退休金，401k,IRA啥的定期往里充钱，所以还算投资市场。国内的股市才是真正的韭菜市场
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: 经常听人说散户的资金量及购买量占市场的份额非常小，但又会听人说庄家在高位把货
: 都卸给小散。
: 我就疑惑了：既然小三的购买力非常小，庄家怎么能把手中大量的货都卸给小三呢？: 所以我的理解如下（说错了请大家指正）：高价位有人（庄家、机构，散户）卸货不假
: ，但接货的绝不只是小散，肯定也有别的庄家或大机构接货。大户们（庄家、机构）资
: 金雄厚不假，比较容易操控左右市场。小散们（相对）购买力小也不假，容易被操纵也
: 不假。但是庄家机构也有大小之分，他们之间其实也是相互利用、相互搏杀的关系，就
: 看risk-reward划不划的来。庄家到散户的划分也是渐变的、模糊的。
: 我经常在想，用怎样的例子来描述股市中的多方博弈比较恰当。想来想去，个人觉得还
: 是常用的丛林法则比较适当：每个特定股票的交易场就好比是一个丛林（或草原、山岭
: ...................
别人的经验是可以看作借鉴，不能做为主要的判断依据，因为时空不同，以自己的观点为主才会少出错。
这才是一个实事求是的态度
不过小散骂庄家，假装社会人儿
也算基本心理需求
你看看下面两个说法，你会选哪个？
小散A：妈的，今天又亏了，我真是个傻逼
小散B：妈的，今天又亏了，庄家太他妈的黑了
【 在 alertipo (alertipo) 的大作中提到: 】
: There's huge difference b/w "manipulating" and "successfully manipulating".
: Everyone manipulates the market - even the robinhood/reddit crowd. And
even
: they are successful sometimes. Do the big firms have advantages? sure.
Are
: they successful at times? yep. So by "zj" if you are just referring to
: those big institutional accounts who has certain edges, I have no
: disagreement. But my main point is no one, I repeat, no one do it
: successfully day in and day out. In another word, there's no all-seeing
: stock market oracle whose purpose in life is to trap everyone else
: successfully everyday. If such oracle exists, it wouldn't take someone
more
: than 48 hrs to become a trillionaire while cornering the market.
: ...................
Now that we have had the terminologies straightened up, we actually have
more in agreement than in disagreement.
My point in the top post is that those big ZJs (big institutions, big ETFs, etc.) are not there united trying to make a profit on the small retail
investors. When some big ZJs dump their stocks to lock in profit, some other big ZJs might take the opportunity to load their boats. It's just like the animals in a jungle.
Sure, there are patterns for people to discover. After all, we are all human,
sharing some of the same predispositions when it comes to fear and greed,
etc.
【 在 alertipo (alertipo) 的大作中提到: 】
: There's huge difference b/w "manipulating" and "successfully manipulating".
: Everyone manipulates the market - even the robinhood/reddit crowd. And
even
: they are successful sometimes. Do the big firms have advantages? sure.
Are
: they successful at times? yep. So by "zj" if you are just referring to
: those big institutional accounts who has certain edges, I have no
: disagreement. But my main point is no one, I repeat, no one do it
: successfully day in and day out. In another word, there's no all-seeing
: stock market oracle whose purpose in life is to trap everyone else
: successfully everyday. If such oracle exists, it wouldn't take someone
more
: than 48 hrs to become a trillionaire while cornering the market.
: ...................
明白人。有机构dump就有机构接飞刀，涨跌还是看实力较量，就是所谓的大势（看多的机构多or看空的机构多）。小散炒股就是看神仙打架跟着喝汤或者遭殃，基本影响不了大势。
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: Now that we have had the terminologies straightened up, we actually have
: more in agreement than in disagreement.
: My point in the top post is that those big ZJs (big institutions, big ETFs,
: etc.) are not there united trying to make a profit on the small retail
: investors. When some big ZJs dump their stocks to lock in profit, some
other
: big ZJs might take the opportunity to load their boats. It's just like
the
: animals in a jungle.
: Sure, there are pattern for people to discover. After all, we are all
human,
: sharing some of the same predispositions when it comes to fear and greed,
: etc.
: ...................
同意！
其实如果小散恰好齐心的话，其整体合力也是可观的，只是这种情况极少发生。
【 在 lanyin0314 (蓝音) 的大作中提到: 】
: 明白人。有机构dump就有机构接飞刀，涨跌还是看实力较量，就是所谓的大势（看多的
: 机构多or看空的机构多）。小散炒股就是看神仙打架跟着喝汤或者遭殃，基本影响不了
: 大势。
: ,
: other
: the
: human,