Tesla stock could hit $6,000 per share in the next five years, analyst says Emily McCormick Reporter Yahoo Finance
The firm that once predicted Tesla (TSLA) shares would cross the $4,000 mark delivered a new, even more bullish price target for the electric-vehicle maker.
Shares of Tesla could be worth $6,000 each in the next five years, Ark Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney told Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round Wednesday.
The soaring target implies a return of more than 1,000% from Tesla’s closing prices Wednesday. At $6,000 per share, Tesla’s market capitalization would leap well above the $1 trillion mark, based on shares outstanding as of its latest quarterly earnings update. Tesla’s current market capitalization is north of $90 billion, or more than that of Ford (F) and GM (GM) combined.
The $6,000 per-share level is Ark’s bull case scenario, implying a best- case situation for Tesla over the next few years.
“That’s assuming our bull case assumptions for the EV (electric vehicle) market,” Keeney said. “Broadly what’s changed in our assumptions over the past few years is, we’ve always said that Tesla was three years ahead on batteries, autonomous hardware and autonomous data collection. And really we’re adding software to that, over-the-air software updates.”
“What we’ve seen happen is really the rest of the auto market, shockingly, is really so far behind Tesla,” she added. “I mean there hasn’t been an EV produced that’s on par with the Model S which came out, you know 7-8 years ago. And so we’re just seeing it move further ahead on all of those fronts.”
Ark’s investment thesis mirrors that of some other traditional firms on Wall Street, which have recently pointed to Tesla’s troves of collected data as a launching point for future developments in autonomy.
Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch on Monday raised his price target on Teslato $612 from $385, citing in part Tesla’s “600,000 cars on the road collecting data from all of their sensor suites” helping the company “ redesign their autonomous system.”
The average 12-month price target on Tesla’s stock is $354.26, according to Bloomberg-compiled data on 30 firms delivering price targets over the past three months, not including Ark’s call. Shares of Tesla closed at $518.50 each on Wednesday.
Keeney noted that Ark Invest will be publishing an updated model and Tesla price target in the next few weeks.
‘Their opportunity could just run away with them’
In the past month alone, Tesla’s stock jumped nearly 50% as deliveries came online from its Shanghai Gigafactory, China’s first wholly owned car factory by a U.S. automaker.
That factory handed over its first vehicles to public customers within a year of breaking ground in Shanghai in January 2018, bringing Tesla to the world’s largest auto market at a much faster than expected pace.
“We think this is just going to accelerate that story,” Keeney said. “It’s going to help the cost structure, it’s going to help Tesla scale in a capital-efficient matter.”
And in the U.S., Keeney said she didn’t think a future where Tesla was the No. 1 domestic automaker would be such “a wild assumption, especially in the autonomous car space where it’s a winner-takes-most market.”
“We think they’re going to be able to launch an autonomous taxi service in the next few years. I think their opportunity could just run away with them,” Keene said. “And if you look at the other US automakers, I mean again their EV platforms aren’t as great and they’re really behind on the data collection that you need to get an autonomous platform off the ground.”
【 在 lagolago (lagolago) 的大作中提到: 】 : $6000！不夸张 : market CAP 1T : It is entirely possible if Tesla gets FSD and Robotax fully roll out in 6 : years. : In fact, 500B should be easy if Tesla can sell more cars with the push of : China and Germany.
Tesla created demand for electric cars, but only for Teslas Keith Naughton, Bloomberg Published 9:56 am CST, Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Tesla's stock is soaring, and traditional auto manufacturers are staging glitzy presentations of new plug-in models. You'd think the electric-vehicle age was finally dawning.
But so far, Tesla is the only car company looking likely to benefit in the coming years. Look at every other corner of the U.S. auto industry -- the world's most valuable automaker, dealers, consumer surveys and market forecasts -- and a more ominous picture emerges.
A top American executive for Toyota Motor Corp., whose market value is still more than double Tesla's even after Elon Musk's epic run, recently warned of electric-car catastrophe. Auto retailers caution growth will be slow, citing still-high battery costs and range constraints. 【And far more U.S. shoppers are willing to kick the tires on a hybrid than cars that only plug in.】
The cause for concern remains as EVs start to appear in showrooms in greater numbers. 【The models on the market will swell almost sevenfold to 121 models in the next half decade, from 18 now, according to LMC Automotive. But the researcher sees all those vehicles claiming just 5.5% of U.S. sales in 2025.】
"We're going to see electrified Armageddon," Bob Carter, Toyota's executive vice president of North American sales, told reporters in December. "Supply is going to get ahead of true customer demand."
There is irony, of course, in Carter predicting an EV reckoning just as Tesla was wrapping up a record year. The dim view he holds is not unique among legacy automakers, which have spent more than a century building and selling cars that burn fossil fuel. But that cautious mindset is rooted in pragmatism -- profits remain elusive in the high-cost, high-price EV business.
That's why Toyota and other automakers have been reluctant to dive head- first into EVs until they're closer to reaching price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles, which Bloomberg NEF predicts 【will happen around 2024.】
Tesla is being rewarded for not waiting: Its shares surged another 6% on Tuesday to $540.94, a new intraday record. The stock has doubled since Tesla reported a surprise third-quarter profit in October, bringing the company closer to a $100 billion market value.
EV sales are expected to grow to be roughly the size of the shrinking mid- size car segment by mid-decade, to about 934,000 units, LMC says. But whereas the meager family sedan market will be split between just 13 models, the researcher expects there to be more than nine times as many EVs fighting for air.
Thanks to its hot-selling Model 3 sedan, Tesla accounted for nearly eight-in-10 EV sales in America last year. By 2025, LMC sees Tesla offering seven models that will account for a quarter of segment sales. That would leave the 114 competing offerings from other automakers averaging annual sales of 6,145 per model, or about 118 units a week.
"It's tough to make a business out of that volume per EV," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC. "Electric vehicles are the future. What's in question is when that future will arrive and when it pays off? It's a long road and there definitely could be some carnage along the way."
Automakers, fearing they'll be left behind if they don't accelerate their shift from the internal combustion engine, are going to great lengths to build buzz for new electric models.
Ford staged a star-studded unveiling of its Mustang Mach-E in an airplane hangar a short stroll from SpaceX, Musk's rocket company. Porsche debuted its Taycan using Niagara Falls, a Chinese wind farm and a German solar site as backdrops.
But with the notable exception of the Model 3, consumers have not been charged up by the highly touted electric offerings already on the market.
Sales of the Chevrolet Bolt sagged almost 9% last year and the Nissan Leaf slumped 16%, with neither cresting 17,000 units. Last month, Mercedes-Benz put off the U.S. debut of its first EV by a year after Jaguar and Audi struggled to sell their first electric offerings.
【So far, only Tesla and its billionaire chief executive officer have come up with an alluring amalgam of status and sex appeal.】
"Tesla has created the market by having a mystique," said Art St. Cyr, the head of American auto operations for Honda Motor Co., pointing to Musk's Model 3. "If Honda, Toyota, GM or Ford made that vehicle, we probably wouldn't sell them in those numbers."
Honda, Ford and Toyota, which all have a history of selling hybrids, see them prevailing for the time being because mainstream buyers continue to suffer "range anxiety" -- the fear of being stranded by running out of juice in an EV.
"People are not generally willing to pay more to be inconvenienced," St. Cyr said.
General Motors Co. is jumping more aggressively into EVs, with plans to field 20 models worldwide by 2023 and sell 1 million by 2026. It's joining forces with South Korea's LG Chem Ltd. to build a $2.3 billion battery factory in Lordstown, Ohio, where the car manufacturer stopped building gasoline-fueled Chevrolet Cruze compacts last year.
"Customers aren't interested in hybrids," Mary Barra, GM's CEO, said during an industry conference in November.
【But a study released by Deloitte this month found 27% of U.S. consumers are actively considering a hybrid, while just 8% are looking at pure electrics. Some 59% of Americans still want gasoline-powered cars, the highest of any country Deloitte surveyed globally.】
【Government mandates have made China the world's top market for EVs, and European regulators also are stimulating demand with incentives to help reach more stringent goals for reduced emissions.】
【But in the U.S., where President Donald Trump has sought to ease car- pollution rules and fuel is cheap, consumers are in no hurry to ditch the gas pump. The Deloitte study found consumers in the U.S. are most concerned about a lack of charging stations.】
"The automotive ecosystem still has some work to do in terms of making EVs as easy and convenient as internal-combustion engines," said Craig Giffi, Deloitte's vice chairman.
The onslaught of new EVs coming could actually help solve the problem. Until now, most EVs other than Tesla's have been boring "compliance cars" aimed at meeting tougher regulations, said Greg Brannon, director of automotive engineering at 【AAA, which just conducted a survey that found 96% of EV owners would buy another because the experience was better than expected.】
"Most people are looking for a crossover utility vehicle these days," Brannon said. "Now, we're seeing some of those coming, and that's what it's going to take. It has to be something people want to drive and can get excited about."
【The pickup segment, home to the three best-selling models in the U.S., is about to get jolt, too. Musk caused a sensation with the unveiling of the Cybertruck in November.】 Ford has an electric truck under development recently filmed towing 1 million pounds of loaded rail cars. And Amazon.com Inc.-backed Rivian Automotive Inc. plans to roll out its R1T starting late this year.
But for all the hype about the chips automakers are pushing forward on the table, it's unclear when or if their gamble will pay off.
"Somebody's got to buy these things," said Toyota's Carter. "There is a market. The question is: How big and when will it mature?"
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】 : Tesla新的5年目标价$6000！！是不是有点太夸张? 传统汽车市场还是比较保守的， : 改变或颠覆需要时间。10年能达标就已经很可观了，如果10年后美国电车销量能够 : 反超油车的话。 : Tesla stock could hit $6,000 per share in the next five years, analyst says : Emily McCormick Reporter Yahoo Finance : The firm that once predicted Tesla (TSLA) shares would cross the : $4,000 mark delivered a new, even more bullish price target for the : electric-vehicle maker. : Shares of Tesla could be worth $6,000 each in the next five years, Ark : Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney told Yahoo Finance’s The Final : ...................
TSLA short int is $15.17bn; 26.64mm shs shorted; 19.91% of float. Shs shorted up +343k shs, +1.3%, over last 30 days as price rose +35.9%. Shs shorted up +171k shs, +0.7%, last week.
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】 : Yes. : 418.33 (2019 Closing) x 1.5 (Up 50%) = 627.5 : Will sell every single share above 620, if it'd ever get there. I've set : fatty stops for my TSLA holding now. : Tomorrow will be the OE day, and the volatility is supposed to be moderate. : Next week will be make-or-break for Tesla. The possibility of 2nd offering : is increasing rapidly.
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】 : Yes. : 418.33 (2019 Closing) x 1.5 (Up 50%) = 627.5 : Will sell every single share above 620, if it'd ever get there. I've set : fatty stops for my TSLA holding now. : Tomorrow will be the OE day, and the volatility is supposed to be moderate. : Next week will be make-or-break for Tesla. The possibility of 2nd offering : is increasing rapidly.
请问大牛，你为什么觉得2nd offering is very likely? 我怎么觉得不一定需要呢？ 1. TSLA现在有5.3B cash 在账上，不缺钱 2. TSLA 现在有positive cash flow，随着上海厂的投产，margin 只会越来越好。 3. Elon的bonus structure allows him to earn $346M if market cap stays above 100B. He have all the motivation to keep the stock price high. 4. 以Elon Mask的尿性，他应该会和空头刚到底才对啊。。。
You're absolutely right. Heard of a few of major banks have been approaching Tesla to offer the option. If Musk is super confident that share price will come back by the end of the year, why he'd refuse the easy money? Truly a win-win situation. So I just can't rule out this scenario as a black swan event...
The easy money from a 2nd offering would benefit:
1) Make Tesla a debt free company. 2) Start-up costs @ new Shanghai plant & for Model Y production 3) More working capital for the activity in g3/g4/g5 in 2020
【 在 zhjzz1 (zhjzz1) 的大作中提到: 】 : 请问大牛，你为什么觉得2nd offering is very likely? : 我怎么觉得不一定需要呢？ : 1. TSLA现在有5.3B cash 在账上，不缺钱 : 2. TSLA 现在有positive cash flow，随着上海厂的投产，margin 只会越来越好。 : 3. Elon的bonus structure allows him to earn $346M if market cap stays above : 100B. He have all the motivation to keep the stock price high. : 4. 以Elon Mask的尿性，他应该会和空头刚到底才对啊。。。 : Just my 2 cents.
It is imminent for Tesla to have an impact on the operation of g3 factory in Shanghai from the epic Coronavirus outbreak (新型肺炎).
News are flooded in in the morning, and I try to update.
1. Wuhan Coronavirus infection (新型肺炎) outbreak got broadened dramatically. Unofficial data shows the infected patient number in Hubei province alone exceeds 300K. Over 500K Wuhan residents, many are infected, escaped the city before the lockdown, lots of them went to Shanghai & Beijing for superior medical cares.
2. This new Coronavirus can be transmitted without causing fever, so it’s easier than SARS for the infection to travel globally undetected.
3. The coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai is widely expected just in one week by various sources & experts, and a lockdown of the entire city will be most likely followed.
4. Tesla China has 6+% of its employees came from Hubei.
5. The impact of the epic Coronavirus Outbreak (新型肺炎) on the operation of g3 factory in Shanghai is imminent. Be prepared for a panic mode.
God bless Chinese people, while the most of them don't believe him.
In Tesla We Trust, 'çuz he's an alien from outer space :)
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】 : The 100Bln hallmark of TSLA Market Cap was just reached in the after-hour : trading today！ : TSLA Total Shares Outstanding (millions) 180 : 100,000,000,000/180,000,000 = 555.555 :
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi! 4:18 PM · Jan 24, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
另外刚了解到的一个情况，就是TSLA增发几率大增。Elon是聪明人，他最近找人在了 解武汉肺炎的流行情况，并研判其对公司营运可能的影响，productivity bottleneck的 状况势必深度连累股价和信誉。山雨欲来，要未雨绸缪筹集足够的capital以应对可能 的变局，手里周转得灵活，dry powder多多益善，活命要紧。当然我们尚不知道定论，但是不能不考虑预案。无论如何，我都会在下周三Q4 ER前清仓观望，并以straddles 代替持股来bet on the higher volatility after ER。无它，上天，或入地。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】 : It is imminent for Tesla to have an impact on the operation of g3 factory in : Shanghai from the epic Coronavirus outbreak (新型肺炎). : News are flooded in in the morning, and I try to update. : 1. Wuhan Coronavirus infection (新型肺炎) outbreak got broadened : dramatically. Unofficial data shows the infected patient number in Hubei : province alone exceeds 300K. Over 500K Wuhan residents, many are i
Tesla Inc. will also be looking to quell concerns about the coronavirus's impact on its China momentum when it reports Wednesday afternoon. Given China's growing importance to the Tesla (TSLA) story on both the supply and demand fronts, " any worries about disruption in that area make the Street a bit nervous," Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said. Still, he thinks the company has things under control, estimating that in a worst-case scenario, fewer than 10,000 China-made deliveries could get pushed from the March quarter to the June quarter.
It is imminent for Tesla to have an impact on the operation of g3 factory inShanghai from the epic Coronavirus outbreak (新型肺炎).
News are flooded in in the morning, and I try to update.
1. Wuhan Coronavirus infection (新型肺炎) outbreak got broadened dramatically. Unofficial data shows the infected patient number in Hubei province alone exceeds 300K. Over 500K Wuhan residents, many are infected, escaped the city before the lockdown, lots of them went to Shanghai & Beijing for superior medical cares.
2. This new Coronavirus can be transmitted without causing fever, so it’s easier than SARS for the infection to travel globally undetected.
3. The coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai is widely expected just in one week by various sources & experts, and a lockdown of the entire city will be mostlikely followed.
4. Tesla China has 6+% of its employees came from Hubei.
5. The impact of the epic Coronavirus Outbreak (新型肺炎) on the operation of g3 factory in Shanghai is imminent. Be prepared for a panic mode.
God bless Chinese people, while the most of them don't believe him.
In Tesla We Trust, 'çuz he's an alien from outer space :)
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】 : Tesla Inc. will also be looking to quell concerns about the coronavirus's : impact on its China momentum when it reports Wednesday afternoon. Given : China's growing importance to the Tesla (TSLA) story on both the supply and : demand fronts, " any worries about disruption in that area make the Street a : bit nervous," Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said. Still, he thinks the : company has things under control, estimating that in a worst-case scenario, : fewer than 10,000 China-made deliveries could get pushed from the March : quarter to the June quarter. : It is imminent for Tesla to have an impact on the operation of g3 factory in : Shanghai from the epic Coronavirus outbreak (新型肺炎). : ...................
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock skyrocketed 20% on Monday, ending at $780 and establishing a new record close and a new intraday high at $786.14 . It was the stock's largest percent increase since May 9, 2013 , when it rose 24.4%. Earlier Monday, analyst Bill Selesky at Argus Research upped his price target on the stock to $808 , among the highest on Wall Street , saying that Tesla is ready to reap the benefits of its EV dominance. The company last week reported better-than- expected fourth-quarter profit and sales. Tesla shares have been on a tear since mid-December.
Tesla Stock Is Shooting Out the Lights. Why That's Not as Crazy as It Looks. -- Barrons.com
Growth-stock managers "afraid of career risk" may be helping drive the continued gains in Tesla shares, according to a former Wall Street analyst who has correctly predicted the stock's big gains.
Most growth-stock managers trailed their benchmark, the Russell 1000 Growth index, during 2019, and many are in danger of lagging again if they are underweighted in Tesla (ticker: TSLA), which accounts for about 0.6% of the index, according to Gary Black , a leading tobacco analyst at Bernstein in the 1990s and the former CEO of Aegon Asset Management.
Tesla shares -- which are up $125 , or 16%, at $905 in recent trading -- have risen 116% so far this year, giving the company a market value of $163 billion . Tesla accounts for almost 15% of this year's entire gain in the Russell 1000 Growth index and is the best-performing stock in the benchmark.
Black argued in December, when Tesla shares topped $400 , that they could double from there, and he recently lifted his year-end 2020 target to $1000.
Black argues that Tesla's profits could rise to $15 billion in 2024 from a Street projection of $1.4 billion this year as the U.S. electric-vehicle market share grows to 25% from about 3% and Tesla's market share grows to 10% from 2%.
Put a price/earnings ratio of 25 on that $15 billion in earnings, and Tesla could have a market value of $360 billion , or about $2,000 a share.
In a tweet, Black wrote that "short-covering and long-only PMs (portfolio managers) afraid of career risk after underperforming in 2019 (32% beat their benchmarks) and not owning TSLA year to date" are continuing to drive the stock.
Tesla is by far the largest company that isn't in the S&P 500 index, but it stands a good chance of admission later this year if it generates a profit in the first half of this year as analysts expect. To admit a company to the index, S&P requires cumulative profits based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) over four quarters and profits in the most recent quarter. Tesla has been profitable based on GAAP measures the past two quarters.
If Tesla is added to the S&P 500 in 2020, it could provide another lift to the stock due to massive buying from index funds. Tesla now has a market value similar to McDonald's (MCD), which has a 0.6% weighting in the S&P500.
"Almost overnight, investors have realized just 1）how valuable Tesla's first-mover advantage is in electric vehicles," Black wrote in a series of tweets earlier today. "Ever efficient, the market suddenly understood 2）how extensive the lead Tesla has in battery tech, 3）brand uniqueness, 4）social media presence and 5）world of mouth advertising from its huge satisfied base of customers to justify its $140 billion market valuation.
"To argue that legacy OEMS (car companies) will 'just catch up' when they launch their own EVs now seems terribly naive, given battery ranges half of Tesla, and passive orgo cultures that devote their efforts to selling gas- powered combustion engines through TV & print ads and dealer promotions."
苹果的可是一直赚钱的
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 上海工厂下周一, 毛豆3新车出货仪式。下周还有Q4出货总数发布。
: https://twitter.com/realChaoZhou/status/1210592365338972163/video/1
: 看到$4200的目标价位我也是醉了。是不是贫穷限制了我们的想象力？？？
:
Tesla新的5年目标价$6000！！是不是有点太夸张? 传统汽车市场还是比较保守的，
改变或颠覆需要时间。10年能达标就已经很可观了，如果10年后美国电车销量能够
反超油车的话。
Tesla stock could hit $6,000 per share in the next five years, analyst says
Emily McCormick Reporter Yahoo Finance
The firm that once predicted Tesla (TSLA) shares would cross the
$4,000 mark delivered a new, even more bullish price target for the
electric-vehicle maker.
Shares of Tesla could be worth $6,000 each in the next five years, Ark
Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney told Yahoo Finance’s The Final
Round Wednesday.
The soaring target implies a return of more than 1,000% from Tesla’s
closing prices Wednesday. At $6,000 per share, Tesla’s market
capitalization would leap well above the $1 trillion mark, based on shares
outstanding as of its latest quarterly earnings update. Tesla’s current
market capitalization is north of $90 billion, or more than that of Ford (F) and GM (GM) combined.
The $6,000 per-share level is Ark’s bull case scenario, implying a best-
case situation for Tesla over the next few years.
“That’s assuming our bull case assumptions for the EV (electric vehicle)
market,” Keeney said. “Broadly what’s changed in our assumptions over the past few years is, we’ve always said that Tesla was three years ahead on
batteries, autonomous hardware and autonomous data collection. And really we’re adding software to that, over-the-air software updates.”
“What we’ve seen happen is really the rest of the auto market, shockingly, is really so far behind Tesla,” she added. “I mean there hasn’t been an EV produced that’s on par with the Model S which came out, you know 7-8
years ago. And so we’re just seeing it move further ahead on all of those
fronts.”
Ark’s investment thesis mirrors that of some other traditional firms on
Wall Street, which have recently pointed to Tesla’s troves of collected
data as a launching point for future developments in autonomy.
Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch on Monday raised his price target on Teslato $612 from $385, citing in part Tesla’s “600,000 cars on the road
collecting data from all of their sensor suites” helping the company “
redesign their autonomous system.”
The average 12-month price target on Tesla’s stock is $354.26, according to Bloomberg-compiled data on 30 firms delivering price targets over the past three months, not including Ark’s call. Shares of Tesla closed at $518.50
each on Wednesday.
Keeney noted that Ark Invest will be publishing an updated model and Tesla
price target in the next few weeks.
‘Their opportunity could just run away with them’
In the past month alone, Tesla’s stock jumped nearly 50% as deliveries came online from its Shanghai Gigafactory, China’s first wholly owned car
factory by a U.S. automaker.
That factory handed over its first vehicles to public customers within a
year of breaking ground in Shanghai in January 2018, bringing Tesla to the
world’s largest auto market at a much faster than expected pace.
“We think this is just going to accelerate that story,” Keeney said.
“It’s going to help the cost structure, it’s going to help Tesla scale
in a capital-efficient matter.”
And in the U.S., Keeney said she didn’t think a future where Tesla was the No. 1 domestic automaker would be such “a wild assumption, especially in
the autonomous car space where it’s a winner-takes-most market.”
“We think they’re going to be able to launch an autonomous taxi service in the next few years. I think their opportunity could just run away with them,” Keene said. “And if you look at the other US automakers, I mean again
their EV platforms aren’t as great and they’re really behind on the data
collection that you need to get an autonomous platform off the ground.”
—
Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.
303/28811
$6000！不夸张
market CAP 1T
It is entirely possible if Tesla gets FSD and Robotax fully roll out in 6
years.
In fact, 500B should be easy if Tesla can sell more cars with the push of
China and Germany.
呵呵，6000太遥远，下周先上到600再说
【 在 lagolago (lagolago) 的大作中提到: 】
: $6000！不夸张
: market CAP 1T
: It is entirely possible if Tesla gets FSD and Robotax fully roll out in 6 : years.
: In fact, 500B should be easy if Tesla can sell more cars with the push of : China and Germany.
TSLA从500到6000，相当于AAPL从27到300。两者都是革命性的新产品取代旧产品，但是AAPL乘着08年次贷危机触底之后美股世纪大长牛的东风，还花了十年多的时间才完成这个过程，TSLA有这个东风外挂的优势吗？更别说手机更新换代速度远超汽车。如果5年
就能达标6000，除非是每辆特斯拉电车都加装Falcon火箭助推。
半年多前我开这个楼唱多TSLA的时候，舆论是哀鸿遍野衰的一逼。现在股价翻两番了，舆论又是利令智昏牛的一逼。人云亦云的foolish mass总是喜欢从一个极端走到另一个极端，什么时候理性才能超越感性？
这个帖子确实暴露了高手和蠢材的区别
LL虽然也炒特斯拉，但是显然是insider
我觉得股市里涨多少目标不太重要，重要的是涨跌的确定性，如果确定性很大，那就值得下单。否则不如去买彩票
对六年内实现完全自动驾驶不抱希望
所以去掉taxibot看多少钱差不多
今天TSLA跳高大涨 +7.19% to 547.2，还创了新高 @ 548.58。
这种疯狂的melt up涨法，有点像hardcore short seller capitulation开始了。
回头得查查特斯拉空头持股数据，验证一下。
309/29767
等姐分析结果！👍
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 今天TSLA跳高大涨 +7.19% to 547.2，还创了新高 @ 548.58。
: 这种疯狂的melt up涨法，有点像hardcore short seller capitulation开始了。
: 回头得查查特斯拉空头持股数据，验证一下。
: 309/29767
我把剩下一手卖了，差不多卖在545左右
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: Tesla新的5年目标价$6000！！是不是有点太夸张? 传统汽车市场还是比较保守的，
: 改变或颠覆需要时间。10年能达标就已经很可观了，如果10年后美国电车销量能够
: 反超油车的话。
:
老美消费者当下的购车意愿以及未来EV供需趋势，具体数据在今天发表的这篇报道里：
Tesla created demand for electric cars, but only for Teslas
Keith Naughton, Bloomberg Published 9:56 am CST, Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Tesla's stock is soaring, and traditional auto manufacturers are staging
glitzy presentations of new plug-in models. You'd think the electric-vehicle age was finally dawning.
But so far, Tesla is the only car company looking likely to benefit in the
coming years. Look at every other corner of the U.S. auto industry -- the
world's most valuable automaker, dealers, consumer surveys and market
forecasts -- and a more ominous picture emerges.
A top American executive for Toyota Motor Corp., whose market value is still more than double Tesla's even after Elon Musk's epic run, recently warned
of electric-car catastrophe. Auto retailers caution growth will be slow,
citing still-high battery costs and range constraints. 【And far more U.S.
shoppers are willing to kick the tires on a hybrid than cars that only plug in.】
The cause for concern remains as EVs start to appear in showrooms in greater numbers. 【The models on the market will swell almost sevenfold to 121
models in the next half decade, from 18 now, according to LMC Automotive.
But the researcher sees all those vehicles claiming just 5.5% of U.S. sales in 2025.】
"We're going to see electrified Armageddon," Bob Carter, Toyota's executive vice president of North American sales, told reporters in December. "Supply is going to get ahead of true customer demand."
There is irony, of course, in Carter predicting an EV reckoning just as
Tesla was wrapping up a record year. The dim view he holds is not unique
among legacy automakers, which have spent more than a century building and
selling cars that burn fossil fuel. But that cautious mindset is rooted in
pragmatism -- profits remain elusive in the high-cost, high-price EV
business.
That's why Toyota and other automakers have been reluctant to dive head-
first into EVs until they're closer to reaching price parity with internal
combustion engine vehicles, which Bloomberg NEF predicts 【will happen
around 2024.】
Tesla is being rewarded for not waiting: Its shares surged another 6% on
Tuesday to $540.94, a new intraday record. The stock has doubled since Tesla reported a surprise third-quarter profit in October, bringing the company
closer to a $100 billion market value.
EV sales are expected to grow to be roughly the size of the shrinking mid-
size car segment by mid-decade, to about 934,000 units, LMC says. But
whereas the meager family sedan market will be split between just 13 models, the researcher expects there to be more than nine times as many EVs
fighting for air.
Thanks to its hot-selling Model 3 sedan, Tesla accounted for nearly eight-in-10 EV sales in America last year. By 2025, LMC sees Tesla offering seven
models that will account for a quarter of segment sales. That would leave
the 114 competing offerings from other automakers averaging annual sales of 6,145 per model, or about 118 units a week.
"It's tough to make a business out of that volume per EV," said Jeff
Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC. "Electric vehicles
are the future. What's in question is when that future will arrive and when it pays off? It's a long road and there definitely could be some carnage
along the way."
Automakers, fearing they'll be left behind if they don't accelerate their
shift from the internal combustion engine, are going to great lengths to
build buzz for new electric models.
Ford staged a star-studded unveiling of its Mustang Mach-E in an airplane
hangar a short stroll from SpaceX, Musk's rocket company. Porsche debuted
its Taycan using Niagara Falls, a Chinese wind farm and a German solar site as backdrops.
But with the notable exception of the Model 3, consumers have not been
charged up by the highly touted electric offerings already on the market.
Sales of the Chevrolet Bolt sagged almost 9% last year and the Nissan Leaf
slumped 16%, with neither cresting 17,000 units. Last month, Mercedes-Benz
put off the U.S. debut of its first EV by a year after Jaguar and Audi
struggled to sell their first electric offerings.
【So far, only Tesla and its billionaire chief executive officer have come
up with an alluring amalgam of status and sex appeal.】
"Tesla has created the market by having a mystique," said Art St. Cyr, the
head of American auto operations for Honda Motor Co., pointing to Musk's
Model 3. "If Honda, Toyota, GM or Ford made that vehicle, we probably wouldn't sell them in those numbers."
Honda, Ford and Toyota, which all have a history of selling hybrids, see
them prevailing for the time being because mainstream buyers continue to
suffer "range anxiety" -- the fear of being stranded by running out of juice in an EV.
"People are not generally willing to pay more to be inconvenienced," St. Cyr said.
General Motors Co. is jumping more aggressively into EVs, with plans to
field 20 models worldwide by 2023 and sell 1 million by 2026. It's joining
forces with South Korea's LG Chem Ltd. to build a $2.3 billion battery
factory in Lordstown, Ohio, where the car manufacturer stopped building
gasoline-fueled Chevrolet Cruze compacts last year.
"Customers aren't interested in hybrids," Mary Barra, GM's CEO, said during an industry conference in November.
【But a study released by Deloitte this month found 27% of U.S. consumers
are actively considering a hybrid, while just 8% are looking at pure
electrics. Some 59% of Americans still want gasoline-powered cars, the
highest of any country Deloitte surveyed globally.】
【Government mandates have made China the world's top market for EVs, and
European regulators also are stimulating demand with incentives to help
reach more stringent goals for reduced emissions.】
【But in the U.S., where President Donald Trump has sought to ease car-
pollution rules and fuel is cheap, consumers are in no hurry to ditch the
gas pump. The Deloitte study found consumers in the U.S. are most concerned about a lack of charging stations.】
"The automotive ecosystem still has some work to do in terms of making EVs
as easy and convenient as internal-combustion engines," said Craig Giffi,
Deloitte's vice chairman.
The onslaught of new EVs coming could actually help solve the problem. Until now, most EVs other than Tesla's have been boring "compliance cars" aimed
at meeting tougher regulations, said Greg Brannon, director of automotive
engineering at 【AAA, which just conducted a survey that found 96% of EV
owners would buy another because the experience was better than expected.】
"Most people are looking for a crossover utility vehicle these days,"
Brannon said. "Now, we're seeing some of those coming, and that's what it's going to take. It has to be something people want to drive and can get
excited about."
【The pickup segment, home to the three best-selling models in the U.S., is about to get jolt, too. Musk caused a sensation with the unveiling of the
Cybertruck in November.】 Ford has an electric truck under development
recently filmed towing 1 million pounds of loaded rail cars. And Amazon.com Inc.-backed Rivian Automotive Inc. plans to roll out its R1T starting late
this year.
But for all the hype about the chips automakers are pushing forward on the
table, it's unclear when or if their gamble will pay off.
"Somebody's got to buy these things," said Toyota's Carter. "There is a
market. The question is: How big and when will it mature?"
The 100Bln hallmark of TSLA Market Cap was just reached in the after-hour
trading today！
TSLA Total Shares Outstanding (millions) 180
100,000,000,000/180,000,000 = 555.555
(TSLA Institutional Ownership @ 53.32%)
TSLA数据因不同来源而有些微的差异：
Shares Outstanding 180.25 M
Public Float 133.84 M
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: The 100Bln hallmark of TSLA Market Cap was just reached in the after-hour : trading today！
: TSLA Total Shares Outstanding (millions) 180
: 100,000,000,000/180,000,000 = 555.555
: (TSLA Institutional Ownership @ 53.32%)
TSLA 10倍的话，需要达到全球所有automobile 一半的market share？
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: Tesla新的5年目标价$6000！！是不是有点太夸张? 传统汽车市场还是比较保守的，
: 改变或颠覆需要时间。10年能达标就已经很可观了，如果10年后美国电车销量能够
: 反超油车的话。
: Tesla stock could hit $6,000 per share in the next five years, analyst
says
: Emily McCormick Reporter Yahoo Finance
: The firm that once predicted Tesla (TSLA) shares would cross the
: $4,000 mark delivered a new, even more bullish price target for the
: electric-vehicle maker.
: Shares of Tesla could be worth $6,000 each in the next five years, Ark
: Investment Management analyst Tasha Keeney told Yahoo Finance’s The Final
: ...................
请问还是打算600就出手么？
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 现在拿着TSLA就是拼信仰，精神原子弹，不管盘前盘后如何起伏，静等一个炸雷，[email protected]
: /29。
: 万一ER前后股价发疯冲过600，那我就不贪不拿了，全卖掉。现在股价@498，我加了
300
: 股。
【 在 atlantic7200 (Nikon) 的大作中提到: 】
: 请问还是打算600就出手么？
:
Yes.
Q3 ER bottom @ 311 x 2 = 622
418.33 (2019 Closing) x 1.5 (Up 50%) = 627.5
Will sell every single share above 620, if it'd ever get there. I've set
fatty stops for my TSLA holding now.
Tomorrow will be the OE day, and the volatility is supposed to be moderate.
Next week will be make-or-break for Tesla. The possibility of 2nd offering
is increasing rapidly.
01/23/2020 Short Interest 总量未变 @ 20% of float.
TSLA short int is $15.17bn; 26.64mm shs shorted; 19.91% of float.
Shs shorted up +343k shs, +1.3%, over last 30 days as price rose +35.9%.
Shs shorted up +171k shs, +0.7%, last week.
319/31033
会做得可以抽插收割花街。
小蝌蚪我不会看中短期走向，所以就决定一根筋地捂着了。但愿一直拿着也不会差太多。
YMYD。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: Yes.
: 418.33 (2019 Closing) x 1.5 (Up 50%) = 627.5
: Will sell every single share above 620, if it'd ever get there. I've set
: fatty stops for my TSLA holding now.
: Tomorrow will be the OE day, and the volatility is supposed to be moderate.
: Next week will be make-or-break for Tesla. The possibility of 2nd offering
: is increasing rapidly.
【 在 atlantic7200 (Nikon) 的大作中提到: 】
: 请问还是打算600就出手么？
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: Yes.
: 418.33 (2019 Closing) x 1.5 (Up 50%) = 627.5
: Will sell every single share above 620, if it'd ever get there. I've set
: fatty stops for my TSLA holding now.
: Tomorrow will be the OE day, and the volatility is supposed to be moderate.
: Next week will be make-or-break for Tesla. The possibility of 2nd offering
: is increasing rapidly.
请问大牛，你为什么觉得2nd offering is very likely?
我怎么觉得不一定需要呢？
1. TSLA现在有5.3B cash 在账上，不缺钱
2. TSLA 现在有positive cash flow，随着上海厂的投产，margin 只会越来越好。
3. Elon的bonus structure allows him to earn $346M if market cap stays above 100B. He have all the motivation to keep the stock price high.
4. 以Elon Mask的尿性，他应该会和空头刚到底才对啊。。。
Just my 2 cents.
You're absolutely right. Heard of a few of major banks have been approaching Tesla to offer the option. If Musk is super confident that share price will come back by the end of the year, why he'd refuse the easy money? Truly a
win-win situation. So I just can't rule out this scenario as a black swan
event...
The easy money from a 2nd offering would benefit:
1) Make Tesla a debt free company.
2) Start-up costs @ new Shanghai plant & for Model Y production
3) More working capital for the activity in g3/g4/g5 in 2020
【 在 zhjzz1 (zhjzz1) 的大作中提到: 】
: 请问大牛，你为什么觉得2nd offering is very likely?
: 我怎么觉得不一定需要呢？
: 1. TSLA现在有5.3B cash 在账上，不缺钱
: 2. TSLA 现在有positive cash flow，随着上海厂的投产，margin 只会越来越好。
: 3. Elon的bonus structure allows him to earn $346M if market cap stays
above
: 100B. He have all the motivation to keep the stock price high.
: 4. 以Elon Mask的尿性，他应该会和空头刚到底才对啊。。。
: Just my 2 cents.
It is imminent for Tesla to have an impact on the operation of g3 factory in Shanghai from the epic Coronavirus outbreak (新型肺炎).
News are flooded in in the morning, and I try to update.
1. Wuhan Coronavirus infection (新型肺炎) outbreak got broadened
dramatically. Unofficial data shows the infected patient number in Hubei
province alone exceeds 300K. Over 500K Wuhan residents, many are infected,
escaped the city before the lockdown, lots of them went to Shanghai &
Beijing for superior medical cares.
2. This new Coronavirus can be transmitted without causing fever, so it’s
easier than SARS for the infection to travel globally undetected.
3. The coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai is widely expected just in one week by various sources & experts, and a lockdown of the entire city will be most likely followed.
4. Tesla China has 6+% of its employees came from Hubei.
5. The impact of the epic Coronavirus Outbreak (新型肺炎) on the operation
of g3 factory in Shanghai is imminent. Be prepared for a panic mode.
God bless Chinese people, while the most of them don't believe him.
In Tesla We Trust, 'çuz he's an alien from outer space :)
323/31534
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: The 100Bln hallmark of TSLA Market Cap was just reached in the after-hour : trading today！
: TSLA Total Shares Outstanding (millions) 180
: 100,000,000,000/180,000,000 = 555.555
:
今天mm拿武汉肺炎这事儿砸盘，把我的TSLA holding value砸了个坑。SPX大跌52点，
自去年10月以来近四个月头一回跌幅这么大。
股市暴跌好的一面，是可以验证持股的抗跌性。TSLA守住了100Bln/555这个心理关键点，股价这两天在此做了个double bottom，下周大盘如果不接着大跌的话，ER前应可稳
住。
Q4的2020 guidelines将会超级靓丽。Q4 Rev/EPS很强，2019成为特斯拉的一个GAPP盈
利年。
盘后川普刚发的推，急了:)
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United
States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank
President Xi!
4:18 PM · Jan 24, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
从我的统计来看，版上对TSLA的兴趣明显降低，推测大多数散户已经出清持股。高处不胜寒。
从小时图上看，特斯拉股价自从去年12月以来经历了5波下跌，其后各自形成一个历时
两天的上攻平台。本周四周五形成的第5个平台，结果会走成怎样？还需拭目以待：
1）3D 12/30-12/31 下跌幅度 -34/-7.8%，平台中轴线 @ 420，上涨幅度+52/+12.9%
2）2D 01/03-01/06 下跌幅度 -14/-3.1%，平台中轴线 @ 445，上涨幅度+58/+13.1%
3）3D 01/09-01/10 下跌幅度 -28/-5.6%，平台中轴线 @ 477，上涨幅度+74/+15.6%
4）4D 01/16-01/17 下跌幅度 -54/-9.8%，平台中轴线 @ 508，上涨幅度+101/+20.5%
5）3D 01/23-01/24 下跌幅度 -41/-6.9%，平台中轴线 @ 565，上涨幅度+ ??/+ ??%
如果TSLA在ER之前从此处上涨，涨幅+12.9% = 555x1.129 = 626 --> 2
如果TSLA在ER之前从此处上涨，涨幅+15.6% = 555x1.156 = 642 --> 4
如果TSLA在ER之前从此处上涨，涨幅+20.5% = 555x1.205 = 668 --> 6
注意！！
下周一开盘值得关注！下周一开盘值得关注！下周一开盘值得关注！重要事情说三遍:)
TSLA周线图里一月份的三个bar，间隔都是以gap up开局，第二周周一跳空17开盘，
第三周周一跳空20开盘，一二不过三，或许下周一mm如法炮制，直接先拉开距离制造
空头恐慌，借力使力。如果下周一没有gap up开局，那就是mm改变策略了。但是感觉
这种可能性小于50%，成功的操盘策略，都会反复用到烂为止。
另外刚了解到的一个情况，就是TSLA增发几率大增。Elon是聪明人，他最近找人在了
解武汉肺炎的流行情况，并研判其对公司营运可能的影响，productivity bottleneck的
状况势必深度连累股价和信誉。山雨欲来，要未雨绸缪筹集足够的capital以应对可能
的变局，手里周转得灵活，dry powder多多益善，活命要紧。当然我们尚不知道定论，但是不能不考虑预案。无论如何，我都会在下周三Q4 ER前清仓观望，并以straddles
代替持股来bet on the higher volatility after ER。无它，上天，或入地。
Good luck, my friend。。。
324/31773
兴趣不减，大家只是都在围观学习中。。。这个页面本月一直开着：D
香颂新年好！
我觉得668比较吉利。应该会达到668.
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 从我的统计来看，版上对TSLA的兴趣明显降低，推测大多数散户已经出清持股。高处不
: 胜寒。
: 从小时图上看，特斯拉股价自从去年12月以来经历了5波下跌，其后各自形成一个历时
: 两天的上攻平台。本周四周五形成的第5个平台，结果会走成怎样？还需拭目以待：
: 1）3D 12/30-12/31 下跌幅度 -34/-7.8%，平台中轴线 @ 420，上涨幅度+52/+12.9%: 2）2D 01/03-01/06 下跌幅度 -14/-3.1%，平台中轴线 @ 445，上涨幅度+58/+13.1%: 3）3D 01/09-01/10 下跌幅度 -28/-5.6%，平台中轴线 @ 477，上涨幅度+74/+15.6%: 4）4D 01/16-01/17 下跌幅度 -54/-9.8%，平台中轴线 @ 508，上涨幅度+101/+20.5%
: 5）3D 01/23-01/24 下跌幅度 -41/-6.9%，平台中轴线 @ 565，上涨幅度+ ??/+ ??%: 如果TSLA从此上涨，涨幅+12.9% = 555x1.129 = 626 --> 2
: ...................
并以straddles
代替持股来bet on the higher volatility after ER。
============
大多数都会bet high volatility after ER
我到觉得有可能是猪
主要原因：
1. 应该看到，有新的资金进入
2. SEO的可能性很大，为了增发，股价要稳定；SEO 对 TESLA 是好消息
3. ER 好坏，都是街上解读而已
4. 即使MISS，guidance 应该不错
准本持股过ER
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 从我的统计来看，版上对TSLA的兴趣明显降低，推测大多数散户已经出清持股。高处不
: 胜寒。
: 从小时图上看，特斯拉股价自从去年12月以来经历了5波下跌，其后各自形成一个历时
: 两天的上攻平台。本周四周五形成的第5个平台，结果会走成怎样？还需拭目以待：
: 1）3D 12/30-12/31 下跌幅度 -34/-7.8%，平台中轴线 @ 420，上涨幅度+52/+12.9%: 2）2D 01/03-01/06 下跌幅度 -14/-3.1%，平台中轴线 @ 445，上涨幅度+58/+13.1%: 3）3D 01/09-01/10 下跌幅度 -28/-5.6%，平台中轴线 @ 477，上涨幅度+74/+15.6%: 4）4D 01/16-01/17 下跌幅度 -54/-9.8%，平台中轴线 @ 508，上涨幅度+101/+20.5%
: 5）3D 01/23-01/24 下跌幅度 -41/-6.9%，平台中轴线 @ 565，上涨幅度+ ??/+ ??%: 如果TSLA在ER之前从此处上涨，涨幅+12.9% = 555x1.129 = 626 --> 2
: ...................
大牛，如果周一TSLA（跳空）低开，横盘或走低，你会怎么处理？
我什么都不做，ER将至，不信东风唤不回。
如果低开20或更多，那就立马加仓。
【 在 zhjzz1 (zhjzz1) 的大作中提到: 】
: 大牛，如果周一TSLA（跳空）低开，横盘或走低，你会怎么处理？
332/32382
香颂改变周五的看法, 决定抱过ER直到620出么?
老的空头之前上590已经挤过一次, 剩的估计都是死硬派. 540以后入场的空头, 价差不大恐怕很难吓跑. 估计还是看ER.
另外能不能请教一下中期看short squeeze过程对股价拉升幅度可能有多少呢?
谢谢
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我什么都不做，ER将至，不信东风唤不回。
: 如果低开20或更多，那就立马加仓。
: 332/32382
这次肺炎疫情对大盘影响可能会很大，短期世界经济调整都看来难免，我打算出一部分仓位避险，另外一部分换成btc和eth虚拟币。
不过tsla还是建议长期持股，至少一年以上，最好5年为单位，就当存银行。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: It is imminent for Tesla to have an impact on the operation of g3 factory in
: Shanghai from the epic Coronavirus outbreak (新型肺炎).
: News are flooded in in the morning, and I try to update.
: 1. Wuhan Coronavirus infection (新型肺炎) outbreak got broadened
: dramatically. Unofficial data shows the infected patient number in Hubei
: province alone exceeds 300K. Over 500K Wuhan residents, many are i
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
既是，存银行
同意。天灾人祸，美股接下来堪忧。
我也做好了拿长期的心理准备，如果ER大跌的话。
如果ER大涨的话，计划不变。过了好季报，卖光。
明天猪一天不卖的话，可能收盘前得hedge。
TSLA是否会增发？现在情况不明，我赌没有增发。
【 在 whereare (whereare) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这次肺炎疫情对大盘影响可能会很大，短期世界经济调整都看来难免，我打算出一部分
: 仓位避险，另外一部分换成btc和eth虚拟币。
: 不过tsla还是建议长期持股，至少一年以上，最好5年为单位，就当存银行。
:
335/33216
明天买31日的蝴蝶hedge 仓位： 595-600-605. 515-520-525。
暴涨暴跌都可以 ：）
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 同意。天灾人祸，美股接下来堪忧。
: 我也做好了拿长期的心理准备，如果ER大跌的话。
: 如果ER大涨的话，计划不变。过了好季报，卖光。
: 明天猪一天不卖的话，可能收盘前得hedge。
: TSLA是否会增发？现在情况不明，我赌没有增发。
: 335/33216
讲讲这个蝴蝶hedge怎么做。谢谢
【 在 bianren 的大作中提到: 】
:
:明天买31日的蝴蝶hedge 仓位： 595-600-605. 515-520-525。
:
:暴涨暴跌都可以 ：）
:
:
:【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
:: 同意。天灾人祸，美股接下来堪忧。
:: 我也做好了拿长期的心理准备，如果ER大跌的话。
:: 如果ER大涨的话，计划不变。过了好季报，卖光。
:: 明天猪一天不卖的话，可能收盘前得hedge。
:: TSLA是否会增发？现在情况不明，我赌没有增发。
Tesla Inc. will also be looking to quell concerns about the coronavirus's
impact on its China momentum when it reports Wednesday afternoon. Given
China's growing importance to the Tesla (TSLA) story on both the supply and demand fronts, " any worries about disruption in that area make the Street a bit nervous," Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said. Still, he thinks the
company has things under control, estimating that in a worst-case scenario, fewer than 10,000 China-made deliveries could get pushed from the March
quarter to the June quarter.
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 24 08:42:58 2020, 美东)
It is imminent for Tesla to have an impact on the operation of g3 factory inShanghai from the epic Coronavirus outbreak (新型肺炎).
News are flooded in in the morning, and I try to update.
1. Wuhan Coronavirus infection (新型肺炎) outbreak got broadened
dramatically. Unofficial data shows the infected patient number in Hubei
province alone exceeds 300K. Over 500K Wuhan residents, many are infected,
escaped the city before the lockdown, lots of them went to Shanghai &
Beijing for superior medical cares.
2. This new Coronavirus can be transmitted without causing fever, so it’s
easier than SARS for the infection to travel globally undetected.
3. The coronavirus outbreak in Shanghai is widely expected just in one week
by various sources & experts, and a lockdown of the entire city will be mostlikely followed.
4. Tesla China has 6+% of its employees came from Hubei.
5. The impact of the epic Coronavirus Outbreak (新型肺炎) on the operation
of g3 factory in Shanghai is imminent. Be prepared for a panic mode.
God bless Chinese people, while the most of them don't believe him.
In Tesla We Trust, 'çuz he's an alien from outer space :)
338/33576
谢谢香颂的这个TSLA帖子，很受益
如果以官方数据做依据，来讨论上海的情况，那新型肺炎疫情尚在可控阶段。截至目前为止，上海不在前10名，以确诊96死亡1例，排名全国第13位，居北上广之末位，只有
第二大省浙江的三分之一。这就给特斯拉在今晚的ER会议上有了很大的spin空间，安抚投资者的恐慌情绪。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: Tesla Inc. will also be looking to quell concerns about the coronavirus's : impact on its China momentum when it reports Wednesday afternoon. Given
: China's growing importance to the Tesla (TSLA) story on both the supply
and
: demand fronts, " any worries about disruption in that area make the Street a
: bit nervous," Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said. Still, he thinks the
: company has things under control, estimating that in a worst-case scenario,
: fewer than 10,000 China-made deliveries could get pushed from the March
: quarter to the June quarter.
: It is imminent for Tesla to have an impact on the operation of g3 factory in
: Shanghai from the epic Coronavirus outbreak (新型肺炎).
: ...................
340/33851
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 对。TSLA Q4好到什么程度？上万辆已生产MIC T3无一辆计入当季。
: 我只是担心到时候会有一大波Sell On News，不过到那时已过5555。
: :
今天ER增发大概率不会发生。
昨晚Elon发推：Chairs are underappreciated。这是要开香槟的节奏。
想想看，单一业务没赚钱，更无cult文化的Waymo，估值都比TSLA高。
TSLA stock is undervalued，这不是打算用增发砸盘的人说的话。
341/34021
Tesla
冲丫
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 今天ER增发大概率不会发生。
: 昨晚Elon发推：Chairs are underappreciated。这是要开香槟的节奏。
: 想想看，单一业务没赚钱，更无cult文化的Waymo，估值都比TSLA高。
: TSLA stock is undervalued，这不是打算用增发砸盘的人说的话。
: 341/34021
这个解读我喜欢 ：）
TSLA股票$586卖了。
就剩蝴蝶： 595-600-605， 515-520-525
624! It's all paid off!
看看会上Musk会说些什么。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: Q3 ER bottom @ 311 x 2 = 622
: 418.33 (2019 Closing) x 1.5 (Up 50%) = 627.5
:
: 如果TSLA在ER之前从此处上涨，涨幅+12.9% = 555x1.129 = 626 --> 2
: 如果TSLA在ER之前从此处上涨，涨幅+15.6% = 555x1.156 = 642 --> 4
: 如果TSLA在ER之前从此处上涨，涨幅+20.5% = 555x1.205 = 668 --> 6
:
346/34385
没有坚持到最后，呵呵，恭喜各位
你太牛了
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 0202fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 看看会上Musk会说些什么。
: 346/34385
👍👍
香颂姐还是要卖吗？
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 624! It's all paid off!
卖了八成。624-625之间的卖盘我最大！LOL
【 在 ttsj (yuer) 的大作中提到: 】
: 👍👍
: 香颂姐还是要卖吗？
现在前景这么好，为什么还要卖?而不是hold?
可以给版主提feature request不
比如支持订阅香颂姐的回复的手机推送通知
不及时看跟不上操作啊 每每一不留神都感觉损失好多 :(
谢谢香颂
一点钟开了个会回来，一看， 哇！646.2清仓了 ^_^
谢谢香颂大牛带大家一起飞~比心~
恭喜大神！麻烦大神分析一下JMIA, 连续跌。
tsla整体的估值还没netflix高，实际上股价还是处于非常便宜的阶段，但是短期来说
大盘风险越来越大，不光是武汉肺炎的影响，经济大周期也快到了，大家且行且珍惜哎
恭喜香颂！
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 卖了八成。624-625之间的卖盘我最大！LOL
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jan 26 00:48:33 2020, 美东)
: 我什么都不做，ER将至，不信东风唤不回。
: 如果低开20或更多，那就立马加仓。
特斯拉盘后股价一口气拉到660，非常强势。
我想借这个机会感谢Nikon君礼拜天发来very insightful mssg，你关于增发可能性的
分析对我很有帮助，谢谢！抱歉没有及时回复你。
360/35723
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 特斯拉盘后股价一口气拉到660，非常强势。
: 我想借这个机会感谢Nikon君礼拜天发来very insightful mssg，你关于增发可能性的
: 分析对我很有帮助，谢谢！抱歉没有及时回复你。
: 360/35723
也谢谢你一路的分享，让我们学到了很多！
【 在 zhjzz1 (zhjzz1) 的大作中提到: 】
: 也谢谢你一路的分享，让我们学到了很多！
大涨的日子里，尤其要保持清醒，见好就收。
推测TSLA今后三个月的顶，就在本周四或周五，其后会跌到400多。
上海厂停工一周一周半只是乡愿，国内实际的疫情，远远超过政府的公报。
马前炮，不怕打脸。
在周三盘后的去年四季度盈利发布会上，CEO马斯克表示，特斯拉目前没有增资计划，
将专注于降低电池成本，并可能于4月份举办一次“电池日”活动，向投资者介绍其在
这方面取得的进展。
在盈利发布会上，散户和机构投资者都问马斯克，现在是不是筹集更多资本的完美时机。他们建议特斯拉现在可以很容易地以有利地利率增加资本，或者偿还债务，或者加速公司在新产品和工厂方面的进展。
马斯克表示，特斯拉目前无意筹集更多资金，可能永远也不会。
他说：“我们没有人为地限制我们的进展，尽管我们仍在产生正现金流。有鉴于此，筹集资金是没有意义的，因为我们预计尽管以如此高的速度增长，但仍会产生正现金流。”
香颂厉害。麻烦多关注大盘哦，害怕。能不能新开个贴，说说大盘？：）
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 大涨的日子里，尤其要保持清醒，见好就收。
: 推测TSLA今后三个月的顶，就在本周四或周五，其后会跌到400多。
: 上海厂停工一周一周半只是乡愿，国内实际的疫情，远远超过政府的公报。
: 马前炮，不怕打脸。
今天645把我所有tsla都出了，等三个月再入场吧，或者肺炎疫情有被控制住的倾向再
说。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 大涨的日子里，尤其要保持清醒，见好就收。
: 推测TSLA今后三个月的顶，就在本周四或周五，其后会跌到400多。
: 上海厂停工一周一周半只是乡愿，国内实际的疫情，远远超过政府的公报。
: 马前炮，不怕打脸。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
我也按计划清仓TSLA了。周四开盘在620加仓之后，一直设有625-628的stops。感谢mm
逆市拉盘，周五全部卖在收盘高位。感觉这个周末国内疫情会持续恶化，危城不入，就不再冒险持股了，毕竟特斯拉上海厂延长停工会影响到Q1/Q2销售。接下来暂时观望。
但是TSLA日线图看起来仍很牛势，接下来或许还会创新高。然而周线图上貌似即将触顶，大盘也是风雨摇摆，我就不赚这个尾牙了，留给胆大的铁牛。
【 在 whereare (whereare) 的大作中提到: 】
: 今天645把我所有tsla都出了，等三个月再入场吧，或者肺炎疫情有被控制住的倾向再
: 说。
:
366/37498
香颂,
什么时候你开始建仓，能否再版上喊一下？先谢为敬
Forget 香颂。get in as soon as you can. Will be 1000 soon.
【 在 disclose2000 (disclose) 的大作中提到: 】
: 香颂,
: 什么时候你开始建仓，能否再版上喊一下？先谢为敬
纪念一哈，错过了七年来特斯拉最大一波暴涨，呆若木鸡。
执行纪律常常有代价，所以要灵活，但是这个度不好掌握，也许轻仓会好一点。
看样子TSLA要冲850而去了，甚至1000。谁知道？恭喜笑到最后的持股者。
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) stock skyrocketed 20% on Monday, ending at $780 and
establishing a new record close and a new intraday high at $786.14 . It was the stock's largest percent increase since May 9, 2013 , when it rose 24.4%. Earlier Monday, analyst Bill Selesky at Argus Research upped his
price target on the stock to $808 , among the highest on Wall Street ,
saying that Tesla is ready to reap the benefits of its EV dominance. The
company last week reported better-than- expected fourth-quarter profit and
sales. Tesla shares have been on a tear since mid-December.
369/38125
Being disciplined is the number 1 quality in the eyes of Warren Buffett when he selects successor.
【 在 lagolago (lagolago) 的大作中提到: 】
: Being disciplined is the number 1 quality in the eyes of Warren Buffett
when
: he selects successor.
你说的层次太高了，我只需要对自己负责。
TSLA short interest仍有20mm shs，大约18% float。
今天大涨20%，有些空头hold不住了，估计马上会有一波券商的强行平仓。
我今天想空， borker 说借不到股票。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: when
: 你说的层次太高了，我只需要对自己负责。
: TSLA short interest仍有20mm shs，大约18% float。
: 今天大涨20%，有些空头hold不住了，估计马上会有一波券商的强行平仓。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 纪念一哈，错过了七年来特斯拉最大一波暴涨，呆若木鸡。
: 执行纪律常常有代价，所以要灵活，但是这个度不好掌握，也许轻仓会好一点。
: 看样子TSLA要冲850而去了，甚至1000。谁知道？恭喜笑到最后的持股者。
"笑到最后的持股者"难道不是要待到10000以后么? :-)
https://teslainvestor.blogspot.com/2019/06/my-tesla-investment-thesis-why-
tesla-is.html
https://teslainvestor.blogspot.com/2019/12/my-tesla-investment-thesis-20-
teslas.html
谢谢楼主, 一直在看这条线, 受益匪浅.
【 在 bianren (扁人) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我今天想空， borker 说借不到股票。
我第一次凌晨四点多爬起来，就为了查验某一只股票的早市情况。TSLA早市一开盘就冲到805，空头手里的头寸已达20Bln，恐怕当年Porsche轧空的戏码要重新上演，这回要
出人命了。
上put spread应该没问题。小赌一下。早上一开盘就下单。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我第一次凌晨四点多爬起来，就为了查验某一只股票的早市情况。TSLA早市一开盘就冲
: 到805，空头手里的头寸已达20Bln，恐怕当年Porsche轧空的戏码要重新上演，这回要
: 出人命了。
【 在 bianren (扁人) 的大作中提到: 】
: 上put spread应该没问题。小赌一下。早上一开盘就下单。
你为啥要逆势而动？顺势躺赚不好吗？TSLA现在827了。
中国上半年经济下滑， tsla没理由暴涨啊。
难道能上900?
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你为啥要逆势而动？顺势躺赚不好吗？TSLA现在827了。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 3 16:50:56 2020, 美东)
看样子TSLA要冲850而去了，甚至1000。谁知道？
: ...................
880！先卖了再说。。。
涨到888.8，这个庄没准是华人。
short squeeze
【 在 shc (TC) 的大作中提到: 】
: short squeeze
从盘前高点908跌回到了875，血压升高中。。。
玩坏了...这比比特币还凶
靠着一分钟线玩了2轮，收手了，观战。
今早多空都很凶猛，暂时多方赢面大一些。
小烧一把在888.88
Tesla Stock Is Shooting Out the Lights. Why That's Not as Crazy as It Looks. -- Barrons.com
Growth-stock managers "afraid of career risk" may be helping drive the
continued gains in Tesla shares, according to a former Wall Street analyst who has correctly predicted the stock's big gains.
Most growth-stock managers trailed their benchmark, the Russell 1000 Growth index, during 2019, and many are in danger of lagging again if they are
underweighted in Tesla (ticker: TSLA), which accounts for about 0.6% of the index, according to Gary Black , a leading tobacco analyst at Bernstein in the 1990s and the former CEO of Aegon Asset Management.
Tesla shares -- which are up $125 , or 16%, at $905 in recent trading -- have risen 116% so far this year, giving the company a market value of $163 billion . Tesla accounts for almost 15% of this year's entire gain in the
Russell 1000 Growth index and is the best-performing stock in the benchmark.
Black argued in December, when Tesla shares topped $400 , that they could
double from there, and he recently lifted his year-end 2020 target to $1000.
Black argues that Tesla's profits could rise to $15 billion in 2024 from a Street projection of $1.4 billion this year as the U.S. electric-vehicle market share grows to 25% from about 3% and Tesla's market share grows to
10% from 2%.
Put a price/earnings ratio of 25 on that $15 billion in earnings, and
Tesla could have a market value of $360 billion , or about $2,000 a share.
In a tweet, Black wrote that "short-covering and long-only PMs (portfolio
managers) afraid of career risk after underperforming in 2019 (32% beat
their benchmarks) and not owning TSLA year to date" are continuing to drive the stock.
Tesla is by far the largest company that isn't in the S&P 500 index, but
it stands a good chance of admission later this year if it generates a
profit in the first half of this year as analysts expect. To admit a company to the index, S&P requires cumulative profits based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) over four quarters and profits in the most
recent quarter. Tesla has been profitable based on GAAP measures the past
two quarters.
If Tesla is added to the S&P 500 in 2020, it could provide another lift to the stock due to massive buying from index funds. Tesla now has a market
value similar to McDonald's (MCD), which has a 0.6% weighting in the S&P500.
"Almost overnight, investors have realized just
1）how valuable Tesla's first-mover advantage is in electric vehicles,"
Black wrote in a series of tweets earlier today. "Ever efficient, the market suddenly understood
2）how extensive the lead Tesla has in battery tech,
3）brand uniqueness,
4）social media presence and
5）world of mouth advertising from its huge satisfied base of customers to
justify its $140 billion market valuation.
"To argue that legacy OEMS (car companies) will 'just catch up' when they
launch their own EVs now seems terribly naive, given battery ranges half of Tesla, and passive orgo cultures that devote their efforts to selling gas-
powered combustion engines through TV & print ads and dealer promotions."
Write to Andrew Bary at [email protected]
386/39467
正看了一半，就没了，谢谢香颂美女
开盘没敢买put。
收盘是不是可以买put? :）
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你为啥要逆势而动？顺势躺赚不好吗？TSLA现在827了。
收盘前你买了PUT吗？TSLA暴涨暴跌，还有谁相信这一波会去1000？
【 在 bianren (扁人) 的大作中提到: 】
: 开盘没敢买put。
: 收盘是不是可以买put? :）
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 涨到888.8，这个庄没准是华人。
收盘价也将近是888，邪门儿了。
收市前突然一跌，像是mm洗盘，打掉大量的止损盘。
CIC
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 收盘价也将近是888，邪门儿了。
: 收市前突然一跌，像是mm洗盘，打掉大量的止损盘。
买了。 6月， 600-590 put spread
买的少。 就当去赌场。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 收盘前你买了PUT吗？TSLA暴涨暴跌，还有谁相信这一波会去1000？
特斯拉暂时止步于968，上不去1000了。就像当初假肉IPO之后三番暴涨，大家都盯着
250，结果BYND止步于239。
会跌到多少
至少跌到650吧。先看看接下来几天能不能稳住。
【 在 superband (stl) 的大作中提到: 】
: 会跌到多少
明天估计会下探672
如果下跌有惯性，明后天预计续跌100点。届时过去这三天总共160mm shs traded，会
有相当一个数量被套在高位。推测接下来三四个礼拜还会有一个大波，累积动能将会再次把特斯拉推向新高。
今天TSLA盘间跌破-20%，为过去六年最高纪录跌幅。两天累计，已经从高点跌下来265。
记得前几天我说过，大涨的日子里，尤其要保持清醒，见好就收。
【 在 muyong2013 (mumu) 的大作中提到: 】
: 明天估计会下探672
397/42641
看见香颂牛 稳 就好安心，
看见香颂牛 呆若像木鸡一样了 就心慌慌。
一会儿套在高位，一会儿创新高。有逻辑没有？
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 0202fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 如果下跌有惯性，明后天预计续跌100点。届时过去这三天总共160mm shs traded，会
: 有相当一个数量被套在高位。推测接下来三四个礼拜还会有一个大波，累积动能将会再
: 次把特斯拉推向新高。
: 今天TSLA盘间跌破-20%，为过去六年最高纪录跌幅。两天累计，已经从高点跌下来
265。
: 记得前几天我说过，大涨的日子里，尤其要保持清醒，见好就收。
: 397/42641
下两天惯性续跌可能性很高，可能会摸650. 但回弹创新高需要story，短时间2-3周内
可能性不大。个人看法，盘前分析讨论。
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 如果下跌有惯性，明后天预计续跌100点。届时过去这三天总共160mm shs traded，会
: 有相当一个数量被套在高位。推测接下来三四个礼拜还会有一个大波，累积动能将会再
: 次把特斯拉推向新高。
: 今天TSLA盘间跌破-20%，为过去六年最高纪录跌幅。两天累计，已经从高点跌下来
265。
: 记得前几天我说过，大涨的日子里，尤其要保持清醒，见好就收。
: 397/42641
你的语文是疯人院里学的吧？
很多人不介意暂时被套在高位，他们的持仓期5-10年，成长股长期投资者大多如此，
AMZN/AAPL这一路上来，好几次几乎腰斩。TSLA也一样，长期投资，不动如山很正常。
这是逻辑1。
如果短期大炒家或庄家高位被套，设法解套也是人之常情。这是逻辑2。
有人套在高位是一个事实，创新高是根据股票动能做的推测。一码归一码，这是逻辑3。
【 在 nz5000 (nz5000) 的大作中提到: 】
: 一会儿套在高位，一会儿创新高。有逻辑没有？
:
赞 逻辑清晰！
【 在 Goofinaround (香颂 fears4tears) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你的语文是疯人院里学的吧？
: 很多人不介意暂时被套在高位，他们的持仓期5-10年，成长股长期投资者大多如此，: AMZN/AAPL这一路上来，好几次几乎腰斩。TSLA也一样，长期投资，不动如山很正常。
: 这是逻辑1。
: 如果短期大炒家或庄家高位被套，设法解套也是人之常情。这是逻辑2。
: 有人套在高位是一个事实，创新高是根据股票动能做的推测。一码归一码，这是逻辑3。